Russia has used a closely guarded communications channel with America’s top general to propose the two superpowers co-operate to rebuild Syria and repatriate refugees to the war-torn country, according to a US government memo.
The proposal was sent in a July 19 letter by Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian military’s general staff, to US Marine General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to the memo that was seen by Reuters.
The Russian plan, which had not been previously reported, has received an icy reception in Washington. The memo said the US policy was only to support such efforts if there were a political solution to end Syria’s seven-year-old civil war, including steps such as UN-supervised elections.
The proposal illustrates how Russia, having helped turn the tide of the war in favour of President Bashar Al Assad, is now pressing Washington and others to help the reconstruction of areas under his control. Such an effort would likely further cement Mr Al Assad’s hold on power.
“The proposal argues that the Syrian regime lacks the equipment, fuel, other material, and funding needed to rebuild the country in order to accept refugee returns,” according to the memo, which specified that the proposal related to Syrian government-held areas of the country.
In 2011, the US adopted a policy that Mr Al Assad must leave power but then watched as his forces, backed by Iran and then Russia, clawed back territory and secured his position.
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The US has drawn a line on reconstruction assistance, saying it should be tied to a process that includes UN-monitored elections and a political transition in Syria. It blames Mr Al Assad for Syria’s devastation.
Gen Dunford’s office declined to comment on communications with Mr Gerasimov.
“In accordance with past practice, both generals have agreed to keep the details of their conversations private,” said spokeswoman Captain Paula Dunn.
The Kremlin and Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Syria conflict has killed an estimated half a million people, driven about 5.6 million people out of the country and displaced about 6.6 million within it.
Most of those who have fled are from the Sunni Muslim majority, and it is unclear whether Mr Al Assad’s Alawite-dominated government will allow all to return freely, or whether they would want to. Sunnis made up the bulk of the armed opposition to Mr Al Assad.
“The United States will only support refugee returns when they are safe, voluntary and dignified,” said the memo, which is specifically about the Russian plan for Syria.
Rebuilding Syria will also be a massive effort, costing at least $250 billion, according one UN estimate.
Some US officials believe Syria’s dependence on the international community for reconstruction, along with the presence of US and US-backed forces in part of Syria, gives Washington leverage as diplomats push for a negotiated end to the war.
The exchange offered a rare glimpse into the military communications channel between Moscow and Washington, one that Gen Dunford himself has sought to keep private.
The US general, who speaks periodically with his Russian counterpart, has stressed that the two militaries need to be able to have candid, private communications to avoid misunderstandings that could lead to armed confrontation.
But it was unclear how reconstruction and refugees fit into military-to-military communications. Gen Gerasimov’s letter suggests that channel is also being used by Moscow to broach non-military matters.
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Syria, and the issue of refugees, at their July 16 summit in Helsinki. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the talks focused on “how we might get the refugees back”.
But US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said last week no policy changes came out of the summit. The US government memo explicitly said the Russian proposal was not “an outcome” of the Trump-Putin talks but cautioned that Russian officials were trying to present it differently.
“Russian diplomats and other officials have also been engaging in an aggressive campaign to describe the initiative in other capitals and to insinuate that it is an outcome of the US-Russia meeting in Helsinki, which it is not, repeat not,” the memo read.
The Russian cover letter for the proposal sent to Gen Dunford recommended the US, Russia and Jordan repurpose a hub designed to monitor a 2017 ceasefire agreement “to form a joint committee to implement the reconstruction and refugee return plan”, the memo said. Jordan is hosting more than 650,000 Syrian refugees.
The Russian letter also suggests that America and Russia form a joint group to finance infrastructure renovation in Syria, the US memo says.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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FROM THE ASHES
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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SPEC SHEET: SAMSUNG GALAXY Z FLIP5
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THE SPECS
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate
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Company Profile
Name: Direct Debit System
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TWISTERS
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Starring:+Glen+Powell,+Daisy+Edgar-Jones,+Anthony+Ramos
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COMPANY PROFILE
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Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
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Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
57 Seconds
Director: Rusty Cundieff
Stars: Josh Hutcherson, Morgan Freeman, Greg Germann, Lovie Simone
Rating: 2/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”