Georgia reshaping alliances

An arms deal between Syria and Russia could help reshape the Middle East and perversely boost the peace process.

A statue of Josef Stalin is reflected in broken glass in Gori, where the threat of looting is still very high.

DAMASCUS // An arms deal between Syria and Russia that could help reshape the Middle East conflict - and perversely even boost the peace process - is one of the more unusual side effects of the ongoing crisis in Georgia. For years Russia had refused to sell hi-tech missiles to Damascus in response to a specific request from Israel, which is technically at war with Syria.

However, a weapons sale is now firmly back on the agenda, following revelations that Israel had been helping the Georgian military and, therefore, aided the assault on South Ossetia that provoked such an overwhelming response from Russia. With previously cordial ties between Israel and Russia now strained, Syria sees an opportunity to bring its old ally heavily back into play in the Middle East, firmly on its side.

Igor Belyaiv, charge d'affaires at Russia's sprawling embassy in Damascus, said Israel had provided "pilotless drones, training for Georgian special forces and up-to-date telecommunications equipment" to Tbilisi, and made it clear his country's relationship with Israel was under review. "The Russian government's position towards Israel is that these steps affected Russian interests," he told journalists last week. "Therefore, the Russian leadership will be thinking seriously about how to react."

While refusing to confirm specific details about what armaments might be involved, Mr Belyaiv said there had been a "political decision for more co-operation" with Syria. "Russia is ready to supply Syria with modern weapons," he said, adding he expected a greater naval footprint in the Mediterranean Sea. The Russian diplomat also requested that Syria recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, something the West has refused to do.

Much of the international reaction has, predictably enough, focused on the potential for further destabilisation of an already volatile region and greater empowerment of Israel's - and America's - enemies: Syria and, by extension, Hizbollah. An arms deal could threaten ongoing mediated talks between Syria and Israel, designed to prepare the ground for a final settlement over the occupied Golan Heights. Israel fears advanced weaponry, including anti-aircraft missiles and accurate surface-to-surface missiles, sold to Syria would end up in the hands of Hizbollah. In the July 2006 Lebanon war, the militants are believed to have used Russian anti-tank rockets with devastating effect, blocking Israel's ground invasion.

Syrians, however, see their deepening relationship with Russia as a development that could actually strengthen the peace process and finally help bring an end to their decades-long war with Israel. "If Syria gets the weapons from Russia, it doesn't undermine the peace process," said Tarbit Salem, a Damascus-based political analyst. "If Syria is stronger it might actually make the Israelis more serious about the peace talks, it might actually make the peace talks easier."

Nuclear-armed Israel has a far superior military to Syria, the latter relying on largely outdated Russian material. This superiority has allowed Israel to behave with a large degree of impunity. Last September, Israel unilaterally attacked Syria, bombing a military installation that it, and the United States, claimed was an under-construction nuclear reactor, allegations denied by Damascus. UN inspectors visited the site in June but have yet to publish their report.

Syria has at least partially offset this mismatch in firepower through support for Hizbollah, the only group that can really claim military success against Israel. With Russia on side, Syria would have an ally less instinctively pro-Israel in its foreign policy than the US, traditionally seen as the region's main power broker, analysts said. "America is never going to put real pressure on Israel in terms of a peace deal, they are too closely allied," said Taha Abdul Wahid, an independent Syrian analyst on Damascus's ties with Moscow. "Russia can put real pressure on Israel because they have an active relationship with both sides. Russia has leverage over Israel now and will be prepared to use it. It can say, 'come to terms with Syria, otherwise we'll give Syria better weapons'."

Even if new arms are not supplied to Syria, the very prospect has improved Damascus's diplomatic hand, according to Mr Adbul Wahid. "The war in Georgia has empowered Syria, regardless of what does or does not happen with weapons," he said. "Russia is angry with Israel over this and Israel knows it, and must tread more carefully." Since the Annapolis peace conference in November, Russia has been hoping to host a follow-up summit in Moscow to advance negotiations between the Israelis, Palestinians and Syrians. That has not happened because the moribund peace process meant it would be doomed to fail.

Russia could now push for a deal with Israel: attend the conference and agree terms with Syria in exchange for a block on new weapons sales. "Russia wants a world that is at least bipolar, not just centred around Washington. For that reason they want to be involved, they want to see a peace in the Middle East and they'd like to see it shaped on their terms, not on American terms," said Mr Abdul Wahid.

Although it is perhaps too much to expect a peace breakthrough, the Moscow conference is, if nothing else, being discussed again after months of being quietly ignored. Peter Harling, a Damascus-based analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the situation was still developing in the wake of last week's visit to Moscow by Bashar Assad, the Syrian president who met with his Russian counterpart, Dimitry Medvedev. "We will most probably see some realignment of the relationship between Syria, Russia and Israel," he said. "But it's difficult to say exactly how.

Syria's desire for new weapons should not be interpreted as meaning Damascus was not serious about peace, Mr Harling said. "Syria is pragmatic and has a mixed policy of sending both soothing and ominous signals. They have shown they can be constructive, in Lebanon for example, but they also want to show they have some powerful allies like Iran and that they could move closer to Russia. "Syria is not behaving like a spoiler in the region and is not being arrogant or offensive. They are preparing the ground for 2009 and a new US president."

With no real prospect that Russia would turn its back on Israel entirely in favour of Syria, any adjustments in their relationships are likely to be carefully thought out, Mr Salem, the Syrian analyst, said. "The Georgia crisis comes as a huge opportunity for Syria but it does complicate the peace process somewhat. That's the dilemma." @Email:[e-mail]