America’s Syria exit helps cement Russia's rise as the Middle East power broker

A long and careful policy by Vladimir Putin is paying dividends with the Syrian war at its centre

Members of Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, a militant group active in parts of northwest Syria, load their goods after shopping from a market to their vehicle in Akcakale, Turkey. The military action is part of a campaign to extend Turkish control of more of northern Syria, a large swath of which is currently held by Syrian Kurds, whom Turkey regards as a threat. U.S. President Donald Trump granted tacit American approval to this campaign, withdrawing his country's troops from several Syrian outposts near the Turkish border. Getty Images

Members of Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, a militant group active in parts of northwest Syria, load their goods after shopping from a market to their vehicle Akcakale, Turkey. Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) greets his supporters before he addresses members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at their group meeting at the parliament in Ankara. EPA

Syrian displaced families, who fled violence after the Turkish offensive against Syria, sit in a bus on their way to camps on the outskirts of Dohuk, Iraq. REUTERS

Buses carry Syrian displaced families, who fled violence after the Turkish offensive against Syria, to displacement camps on the outskirts of Dohuk, Iraq. REUTERS

Smoke billows out after Turkish shelling on the Syrian town of Ras al Ain, as seen from the Turkish border town of Ceylanpinar, in Sanliurfa province, Turkey. REUTERS

Workers set a tent in preparation to receive a few hundred Syrian refugees who have been newly displaced by the Turkish military operation in northeastern Syria, at the Bardarash camp, north of Mosul, Iraq. The camp used to host Iraqis displaced from Mosul during the fight against the Islamic State group and was closed two years ago. The U.N. says more around 160,000 Syrians have been displaced since the Turkish operation started last week, most of them internally in Syria. AP Photo

Syrian locals, carrying Syrian flags, cheer for the Syrian army in the city of Manbej and its surroundings in Aleppo provinces northeastern countryside, Syria. According to media reports, the soldiers were welcomed by the locals, who have gathered in the city center, carrying Syrian flags and cheering for the army which came to encounter the Turkish aggression. EPA

Syrian locals, carrying Syrian flags, cheer for the Syrian army in the city of Manbej and its surroundings in Aleppo provinces northeastern countryside, Syria. According to media reports, the soldiers were welcomed by the locals, who have gathered in the city center, carrying Syrian flags and cheering for the army which came to encounter the Turkish aggression. EPA

A Syrian soldier and a local man cheer after the Syrian Arab Army completed its deployment in the city of Manbej and its surroundings in Aleppo provinces northeastern countryside, Syria. According to media reports, the soldiers were welcomed by the locals, who have gathered in the city center, carrying Syrian flags and cheering for the army which came to encounter the Turkish aggression. EPA

Syrian government soldiers hold up portraits of President Bashar al-Assad while flashing the victory gesture at a position on the outskirts of the northern city of Manbij in the north of Aleppo province as government forces deploy there. AFP

Syrian government forces walk past media crew vehicles at a position on the outskirts of the northern city of Manbij in the north of Aleppo province, as government forces deploy there. AFP

Turkish soldiers waiting to enter Syria walk past a truck transporting armoured personnel carriers at the border with Syria in Karkamis, Gaziantep province, southeastern Turkey. Turkey defied growing condemnation from its NATO allies to press ahead with its invasion of northern Syria on Tuesday, shelling suspected Kurdish positions near the border amid reports that Syrian Kurds had retaken a key town. AP Photo

People stand near vehicles in the city of Manbij, Syria. REUTERS

Trucks loaded with humanitarian aid are seen heading to Syria for displaced families who fled violence, at the Iraqi-Syrian border crossing in Fish-Khabur, Iraq. REUTERS

A syrian displaced woman is seen with her child, who fled violence after the Turkish offensive against Syria, at the Domiz refugee camp on the outskirts of Dohuk, Iraq. REUTERS

Syrian displaced children who fled violence after the Turkish offensive against Syria, arrived at the Domiz refugee camp on the outskirts of Dohuk, Iraq. REUTERS

People stand in a queue to receive bread from Turkey-backed Syrian rebel fighters in the border town of Tal Abyad, Syria. REUTERS

A man holds stacks of bread that was provided by Turkey-backed Syrian rebel fighters in the border town of Tal Abyad, Syria. REUTERS

This picture taken from the Turkish side of the border at Ceylanpinar district in Sanliurfa shows smoke rising from the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain on the first week of Turkey's military operation against Kurdish forces. The United States is not aware of any "major" escape of Islamic State extremists since Turkey launched its assault on Syrian Kurdish fighters holding the prisoners, an official said Tuesday. AFP

This picture taken shows a missile fired by Turkish forces towards the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain, from the Turkish side of the border at Ceylanpinar district in Sanliurfa on the first week of Turkey's military operation against Kurdish forces. The United States is not aware of any "major" escape of Islamic State extremists since Turkey launched its assault on Syrian Kurdish fighters holding the prisoners, an official said Tuesday. AFP

Boys ride on bicycles in the border town of Tal Abyad, Syria. REUTERS

Syrian government forces arrive in the town of Tal Tamr, not far from the flashpoint Kurdish Syrian town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, which has been a key target of Turkish forces and their proxies since they launched their military assault. Syrian regime troops arrived after Damascus deployed troops to the country's north to contain a days-long Turkish offensive. AFP

Syrian government forces arrive in the town of Tal Tamr, not far from the flashpoint Kurdish Syrian town of Ras al-Ain on the border with Turkey, which has been a key target of Turkish forces and their proxies since they launched their military assault. Syrian regime troops arrived after Damascus deployed troops to the country's north to contain a days-long Turkish offensive. AFP

In this photo Turkey's forces advance towards Manbij, Syria. U.S. military spokesman says U.S. forces have left Kurdish-held town of Manbij, part of withdrawal from northeast Syria. AP

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center, is surrounded by journalists and pro-government academicians in his plane en route back from Baku, Azerbaijan. The White House announced Tuesday that Vice President Mike Pence will travel to Ankara, Turkey on behalf of President Donald Trump and meet with Erdogan. AP

The grainy footage, shot from the side of a dusty road in northern Syria, has been held up as a blunt metaphor for a historic shift in geopolitical power in the Middle East.

As a convoy of US troops speed along a highway leading from Kobane, they pass just metres from the Syrian army advancing to fill the void. The flags of the two armies flash by each other, neither side slowing even to acknowledge the other.

US President Donald Trump’s decision last Sunday to withdraw remaining American troops from northern Syria is being seen in Moscow as the final step in a long retreat from the Middle East. In America’s wake, they have exposed their Kurdish allies to an onslaught from advancing Turkish forces.

The move has left an unmistakable void, which Russia, Syria’s most important international ally, has steadily leveraged since the Kremlin rushed in to bolster the forces of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in September 2015.

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“The Kremlin must feel that it has finally returned to the world stage as a recognised force in international politics,” says Maxim Trudolyubov, Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute.

Russia entered the Syrian conflict in 2015 with an unrelenting campaign of airstrikes that decimated armed opposition to the Syrian army and all but turned the tide of the war in Mr Al Assad’s favour.

In the years since, the Kremlin emerged as the primary political broker in the conflict, leading negotiations between some of President Al Assad’s main backers and opponents, Iran and Turkey.

The deal this week, in which Syrian Kurds who controlled the north allowed the regime to retake key towns in the north to stem a Turkish offensive, was brokered on Russia’s airbase in western Syrian.

But Moscow’s ability to win the trust of the big players in the Syrian conflict, Mr Trudolyubov wrote in a recent analysis, has played out across the region.

Russia, he says, has been successful in getting recognition for its efforts in the region from players as diverse as Iran, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey.

“Most leaders of those countries may not want to sit down for a conversation between themselves, but each of them, separately from the others, is talking to Putin,” he said.

At the same time, since the war in Syria broke out in 2011, Washington has seen as having been an inconsistent and unpredictable backseat player.

In 2013, former US President Barack Obama’s failure to enforce Washington’s own “red lines” in Syria after Mr Al Assad’s chemical attack in Ghouta claimed hundreds of lives.

Confusion followed US President Donald Trump’s stalled decision to withdraw US forces from northern Syria in December last year.

Russian state-run media this week lashed out at the Kurds in northern Syria for having placed their trust in an unpredictable United States and not the Syrian President or Russia. Anchors and editors said both have been consistent in their objectives since the beginning of the conflict.

Dmitry Kiselev, the host of the major weekly talk show Vesti Nedeli, said on Sunday that, "the fate of the Kurds, of course, arouses sympathy. But, at the same time, you must understand that, for some reason, the Kurds in Syria chose America as their ally, and not the president of their country –Assad – and not Russia, which unfailingly helped to rid Syria of ISIS."

Mr Kiselev said that the United States has used the Kurds as “cannon fodder” and described Washington as having “betrayed and dumped” the Kurds.

“Yet again,” he added, “the Kurds made a mistake with their choice of protector. The US is not a reliable partner.”

The fact that the Kurds turned to the Assad regime in Damascus is being heralded a major win in Moscow for what analysts say has been the Kremlin’s consistent set of goals and policies set out since the intervention in Syria in September 2015.

“Russia’s influence in Syria has been again tested and proven strong as a result of the Kurdish decision to seek an alliance with Damascus,” Dmitry Trenin, the director in Moscow of the Carnegie think tank, said.

“Keeping contacts with all [players], including Turkey, and having a clear view of one’s own interests and thus a coherent policy is paying off.”

The question that remains to be seen is how long Russia can maintain friendly ties with leaders in a bitterly divided region.

Already, analysts in Moscow say there may be signs of wear.

“Here's a dilemma for Putin,” says Yury Barmin, a Middle East analyst at the Russia International Affairs Council think-tank, which was established to advise the Kremlin. “How to permanently cement the gap between the US and Turkey that emerged in the northeast [of Syria] while trying to get Erdogan to relinquish his ambitions in that region.”

The answer to this is likely to be the main occupation of many of Mr Putin’s foreign policy officials.