After assassinations and kidnappings, Iraqi activists ask if they should take up arms


Sinan Mahmoud
  • English
  • Arabic

In a short video, a masked man talks Iraqi activists through some safety precautions that could help stop them being assassinated.

“Follow me carefully,” said the man, sitting behind the wheel of a car, wearing a black baseball cap, gloves, a mask and a flak jacket.

“Through security cameras, check if there is anyone or a motorcycle in the street before leaving your home or office.

"When driving, keep watching your back with the three mirrors."

With a pistol in his hand, he continued: “The most important thing is to keep your pistol loaded and put it in the side door pocket, and lie down on your back seat when the shooting starts.”

The calls for self-protection and to take up arms come after a wave of attacks on civil activists in Iraq’s months of anti-elite, pro-reform protests.

Many protesters reject the call to arms as not appropriate for a peaceful movement for change in Iraq.

Demanding jobs, better services, an end to the endemic corruption and overhauling the political system, the protests started in October 2019 with a few people in Baghdad then spread to other cities in central and southern Iraq.

Leaderless protests have been the biggest and most effective tactic in Iraq after Saddam Hussein. The persistence of protesters remains unbeaten by repeated crackdowns.

The government said that as of July 30, 560 protesters and members of security forces had been killed in the violence. Tens of thousands were also wounded, many with live ammunition.

Dozens of activists have reported intimidation and there have been many kidnappings and assassinations, say local and international human rights watchdogs.

Activists accuse Iran-backed militias of being behind the assassinations to try to subdue the protests.

The government and militias blame “third parties”, without specifying who they are.

“We are being slaughtered like sacrifices by the uncontrolled militias,” said cleric Asaad Al Nassiri, a prominent activist in the southern city of Nasiriyah who advocates the calls for arms.

“When the government is unable to protect us, what can we do to protect ourselves?

“It is the legitimate right for everyone to take up arms to protect himself, his family and fellow protesters when facing death threats.”

The latest round of assassinations started on July 6 when an unknown gunman murdered prominent pro-protest security analyst Husham Al Hashimi as he parked his car in front of his home in Baghdad.

In the southern city of Basra last month, activists Reham Yacoub and Tahseen Osama were gunned down in separate incidents within a week.

Mr Al Nassiri blames the killings on political factions and Iran-backed militias of the Popular Mobilisation Forces – paramilitary forces nominally under the control of the state but with significant power.

He said the factions saw the activists as “a seed for a future political movement and national projects who will rival them in the elections".

But the call to arms has divided protesters.

Baghdad protesters last week said they were “shocked” at the “suspicious calls that intend to end our peaceful revolution and to drag our beloved country into chaos and internal fighting".

But Mr Al Nassiri said he was against the idea of forming rival militant groups and that weapons should only be used by well-trained protesters who have a licence.

He said the light arms would never be used against the security forces but against “the militias who want to kill us”.

Alarmed by the calls, Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mustafa Al Kadhimi, said on Sunday that it was “the government's responsibility to redress” the killings and that it would move against any attempt to take up arms.

Militia leader Qais Al Khazali of the influential Iran-backed Asaib Ahl Al Haq said the aim behind the call to arms “is to target the leaders and members of resistance factions”.

But Mr Al Nassiri said the ball was in Mr Al Kadhimi’s court.

“If the government manages to stop the uncontrolled militias from killing us, the protesters will not need to take up arms to defend themselves,” he said.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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