UK's Cameron defends deficit-cutting policy as third recession looms



LONDON // British prime minister David Cameron said the credibility of his deficit-cutting policy was more important than the judgment of credit rating agencies, as the threat of third recession since the financial crisis looms.

Britain has held onto its top Triple-A credit rating while the United States and France have suffered downgrades, but that endorsement has looked increasingly shaky as the economic outlook darkens.

But, a loss of the rating would be a blow to Mr Cameron and his Conservative-led coalition, which has staked its political reputation on maintaining the top rating and nursing Britain's economy back to health by cutting its deficit.

Mr Cameron told BBC television yesterday the opinion of the international debt markets was more significant than a credit rating.

"What matters most of all is are you able to pay your debts, maintain your debts at a low rate of interest," he said.

"The ratings you have are all hugely important, but in a way the real test is, what are the interest rates the rest of the world is demanding in order to own your debt."

Ministers have been increasingly playing down the significance of credit ratings as the economy struggles and the crisis in the euro zone, Britain's largest trading partner, reduces the near term prospects for growth.

Mr Cameron said the key to keeping the faith of financial markets was the government's programme of cutting state spending to bring its deficit under control.

"You can only keep your interest rates low if you have a credible strategy for getting on top of your deficit and getting on top of your debt," he said.

Mr Cameron said it was important the Bank of England kept interest rates low to help companies expand and help the housing market, but dismissed a suggestion that the bank's incoming head Mark Carney had been hired to inject a dose of inflation into the economy.

"Right now Britain needs low interest rates because we need businesses to get out there and invest. It lets people get onto the housing ladder. So we want to maintain a situation where low interest rates are possible," Mr Cameron said.

Data on Friday suggested Britain's economy may have shrunk in late 2012, raising the chances of the country sinking back into its third recession since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”