The UK must improve its Covid-19 tracing programme amid fears that a second wave of the virus could be twice as bad as the first, researchers said.
A study found that reopening British schools as planned in September must be accompanied by an effective trace, track and isolate programme to keep infections down.
The UK has suffered more than 46,000 deaths during the pandemic, putting it below only the US, Brazil and Mexico, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine found that three quarters of people with the disease would need to be diagnosed and isolated and two thirds of their contacts traced if schools returned full-time in September.
If the level of contact tracing fell below that threshold in the UK while schools reopened full-time and control measures were eased, a secondary wave of Covid-19 would peak in December, according to a report in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health journal.
The authors issued a warning that a secondary wave of infections could be two to 2.3 times the size of the original outbreak.
Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, who led the study, said: “Our modelling suggests that with a highly effective test and trace strategy in place across the UK, it is possible for schools to reopen safely in September.
“However, without sufficient coverage of a test-trace-isolate strategy the UK risks a serious second epidemic peak either in December or February.”
The study was published as British former prime minister Tony Blair’s think tank called for more testing and transparency to limit the impact of the government’s quarantine policy on international arrivals.
The think tank said the measures, which require international passengers arriving from certain countries to quarantine for 14 days, risk further grinding the travel industry to a halt.
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Gallery: Coronavirus around the world
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A health worker takes a break outside Medellin's General Hospital in Medellin, Colombia. AFP -
A clown wearing face mask poses for a picture before performing at Puente Piedra district, in the northern outskirts of Lima. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, circuses in Peru remain closed. AFP -
Researchers work at the Institute for Scientific Research and High Technology Services, in Panama City, Panama. Scientists from Panama, Japan and India are studying the benefits of a food supplement derived from a Japanese fungus to strengthen the immune system of patients with Covid-19. EPA -
People gather for a protest against plans to reopen schools in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic in New York. EPA -
An Indonesian pupil uses a smartphone while being home schooled by his mother, in Depok, West Java, Indonesia. EPA -
Stranded workers wait for shuttle services following the suspension of mass transportation on the first day of the government's reimplementation of a stricter lockdown to curb Covid-19 infections in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. Reuters -
A woman conducts a spiritual cleansing on a client looking to improve her health and her economic situation due to the coronavirus outbreak, at the Sonora market, in Mexico City, Mexico. Reuters -
Journalists interview a Spanish tourist upon arrival at Juan Santamaria airport in San Jose, Costa Rica, on the first commercial flight since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. EPA -
Merchants chat in La Vega market in Santiago, Chile. AP Photo -
US President Donald Trump leaves a Covid-19 pandemic briefing in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House. Reuters -
Jasmine Paolini of Italy touches rackets with Daria Kasatkina of Russia after their singles match during the 31st Palermo Ladies Open - Day One in Palermo, Italy. Getty Images -
A man walks into an isolation ward to collect his belongings after recovering from Covid-19 in Machakos, Kenya. EPA -
A restaurant offering takeaways remains open during curfew in Fitzroy suburb in Melbourne, Australia. Bloomberg
