The next challenge in the coronavirus pandemic will be to avoid a second wave of infections as shops and businesses begin to re-open.
Italy and Spain, two of the countries that were hit hardest by Covid-19 outbreaks, have begun taking small steps to lift some of the restrictions that were implemented to contain the pandemic that has killed more than 40,000 in both countries.
With some countries declaring they are passed their peak infections, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has issued a guideline of six key criteria for governments to consider when lifting lockdowns.
1. Transmission control
The first key step to easing restrictions and preventing a second wave is having no local transmission. The WHO said they would measure this as being when new cases are either detected sporadically or when they come in clusters from known contacts or people coming into the country.
The WHO also highlighted health system capacity as key. Ensure health systems are operating at manageable levels and not overburdened, this includes maintaining what the WHO calls a substantial reserve of clinical care capacity or enough empty beds and doctors to accommodate an influx of new cases if needed.
2. Health system capacity
The WHO listed five key measures needed to continue managing the outbreak effectively. These were detection, testing, isolation, treatment and contact tracing.
The WHO recommends authorities continue to actively look for new cases through measures such as entry screening and providing test results within 24 hours.
Effective testing capacity would allow health systems to quickly asses both suspected patients and recovered patients in order to verify they are virus-free.
The WHO recommends designated isolation spaces, whether that is in a hospital or an isolation facility. Home isolation is to be used as a last resort as it further burdens authorities when it comes to contact tracing. All close contacts are to be quarantined for 14 days.
3. Protect the vulnerable
The WHO says authorities must take additional steps with high-risk or high-infection settings such as shared accommodation and nursing homes.
The measures should aim to minimise the risk of infection - with personal protective equipment and regular sterilisation - but also have plans for outbreaks that include triage capability.
4. Keep workplaces safe
Essential but high footfall spaces such as workplaces and schools must keep measures to lower the risk of infection, such as physical distancing, hand washing, respiratory etiquette (such as covering your mouth and nose with your arm when you sneeze) and temperature monitoring.
5. Screen passengers
Authorities should not consider lifting lockdowns until they've completed a thorough analysis of likely origin and routes of cases that entered the country. Measures to rapidly detect and isolate travellers suspected of carrying coronavirus must also be in place.
6. Engage the public
The WHO says public co-operation will be vital to successfully transitioning out of lockdown.
Countries that ease restrictions should wait at least two weeks to evaluate the impact before moving further.
In Asia, many countries saw a rise in cases when restrictions were first eased.
China, Hong Kong and Singapore are still recording new cases after promising declines.
In China, the government says almost all new cases are coming from overseas - highlighting the need to test and monitor passengers.
Singapore, which was viewed as a model for contact-tracing during its initial outbreak, remains in a "critical situation" said Health Minister Gan Kim Yong as the country faces a second wave of infections, many originating from foreign worker dormitories.
In Spain, employees in select industries such as manufacturing and construction have been allowed to return to work, while Italy has also reopened limited shops and businesses. Germany is preparing to open schools and lift restrictions in May.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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