Scientists are investigating why London has so far escaped a second coronavirus wave with its infection rate half that of other cities.
The analysis comes as a second Covid wave appears to be infecting other major British cities, some of which have reintroduced lockdown measures to prevent its spread.
One theory is that people working from home or being furloughed in service-industry jobs in London has kept infections down whereas other cities such as Manchester and Birmingham have more industrialised workforces.
It is also thought that Londoners have learnt lessons from the first wave with greater social distancing awareness and better attention to hygiene.
“Because London was hit so hard, people have been more willing to comply with social distancing measures and people have been more cautious,” said Dr Derek Groen, a lecturer in simulation at Brunel University London.
In districts across London, the number of Covid cases per 100,000 people ranges from six in Bromley to 18 in Kensington and Chelsea. But elsewhere, the infections are far higher – 37 per 100,000 in Manchester, 29 in Leeds and 28 in Birmingham, all with restrictions reinstated. In the worst-affected town, Bolton, in Greater Manchester, infections are 99 per 100,000 and the area is now under strict lockdown measures.
Surveillance studies by Public Health England estimated that more than 17 per cent of Londoners had been infected by late June, but elsewhere in Britain the infection rate is about 6 per cent. Although Britain is far from gaining herd immunity, achieved when between 60 and 80 per cent of the population have been infected or immunised, scientists say the spikes of infections in London will be less steep than elsewhere if one in five people have already caught the disease.
London hospitals are now almost back to normal, with very few Covid patients, which is in stark contrast to the situation earlier in the year, when a conference centre was converted into a 4,000-bed field hospital to treat a predicted surge of patients who never appeared.
But a leaked government report suggested there could be 15,000 excess deaths over winter if a second wave hit, compared with about 9,000 seen when the virus was first detected in February.
The government said the leaked information was merely part of its crisis planning. However, Covid simulations that have been made public suggest a second wave is inevitable in London but will be less severe than the first.
It is also braced for the return of overseas students this month, and for more tourists to visit later in the year, especially in the run up to Christmas, which could lead to another wave.
A north London doctor agreed that a second flare was almost certain. "I think it is still on the way, though social distancing and mask-wearing may make a difference, as well as more protection of people in public-facing jobs," he told The Observer. "We're all bracing ourselves for a second wave. But it is later than we expected."
