Millions of Turks living overseas wrapped up voting on Tuesday in a tense election that has turned into a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's polarising two-decade rule.
Turkey's longest-serving leader and the social transformation spearheaded by his Justice and Development Party, or AKP, will face judgment from voters on Sunday when they head to the polls in the presidential and parliamentary election.
The election will be Turkey's most consequential in generations and the toughest of the 69-year-old's career.
Polls show Mr Erdogan locked in a tight battle with secular rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his powerful alliance of six parties that span Turkey's cultural and political divide.
The first votes were cast by Turks in Europe, many of whom moved from poorer provinces to Western Europe under job programmes aimed at combating the continent's labour shortage following the Second World War.
Such voters comprise 3.4 million of Turkey's 64.1 million registered electorate and tend to support more conservative candidates.
Official turnout on the morning of the last day of overseas voting on Tuesday exceeded 51 per cent — a touch higher than in the last general election that Mr Erdogan won in 2018.
Mr Kilicdaroglu's Republican People's Party, or CHP, has been trying to eat into Mr Erdogan's traditional base of support by organising daily buses to take voters to the Turkish consulate in Berlin.
Germany accounts for nearly half of Turkey's diaspora vote.
Election rallies in Turkey ahead of May 14 elections — in pictures
“It's not just a presidential election,” opposition supporter Katresu Ergez said while waiting for a CHP bus.
“It's about voting for the future of the country, whether democracy will be restored or whether it will go further towards dictatorship.”
Local CHP chapter co-leader Ercan Yaprak sounded confident that the opposition had finally mustered the numbers to end Mr Erdogan's undefeated record in national votes.
“I think people sense that it's time for change,” he told AFP.
The close race has been accompanied by spates of violence that reflect the anger running through Turkey's polarised society during its deepest economic crisis since the 1990s.
Dutch police said on Sunday they had to break up a “massive brawl involving some 300 people” at a polling station in Amsterdam.
Police in the French city of Marseille used tear gas to stop a similar fight between Mr Erdogan's supporters and his opponents last week.
That did not stop a second brawl from breaking out at the same Marseille polling station later in the day.
Tension boiled over during a tour of Turkey's conservative heartland on Sunday by Istanbul's popular opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Right-wing protesters pelted his campaign bus with rocks and bottles while he was trying to deliver a speech from its roof.
Turkey's defence ministry said on Tuesday it had dismissed an infantry sergeant pending an investigation into his involvement in the violence.
The incident prompted Mr Kilicdaroglu — a 74-year-old former civil servant who wants to make Mr Imamoglu his vice president — to appeal for everyone to “please, please stay calm”.
“We are going to an election and not to war,” Mr Kilicdaroglu said in a televised interview.
The febrile atmosphere reflects the high stakes for all sides.
The opposition is casting the election as decisive for Turkey's democratic future.
Mr Erdogan centralised power and unleashed sweeping purges in the second decade of his rule.
His courtship of Russia and military incursions into Syria have also chilled his once-warm relations with the West.
But the Turkish leader still commands support among poorer and more religious voters who remember the corruption and hardship that blighted half a century of secular rule.
Mr Erdogan staged a show-of-force rally in Istanbul on Sunday that drew hundreds of thousands of fervent followers.
He announced a new 45 per cent rise in wages for 700,000 state workers on Tuesday — the latest in a long line of such announcement during the campaign.
“Erdogan is throwing the kitchen sink, the cooker, the washing machine and the entire contents of the Turkish house at these elections,” emerging markets economist Timothy Ash remarked.
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The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Results
5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Reem Baynounah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Mohamed Daggash (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Afham, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ghallieah, Sebastien Martino, Jean-Claude Pecout
6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Yas Xmnsor, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi
7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Adrie de Vries, Jean de Roualle
7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Haqeeqy, Dane O’Neill, John Hyde.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
