The leader of Estonia, called “Europe’s new iron lady” for her hardline stance on Russia, is poised for victory in a general election on Sunday.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s party leads polls ahead of a nationalist group that has questioned Estonia’s prolific arms supplies to Ukraine.
Under Ms Kallas’s pro-western government, Estonia has donated a higher share of its gross domestic product (GDP) in aid to Ukraine than any other country, according to one tracker.
The Nato member and former Soviet republic has increased military spending since the war began and lobbied allies to strengthen the defences of Nato’s exposed Baltic flank.
Ms Kallas, 45, has also opposed letting Russian civilians across the 339km border with Estonia, fearing that a larger Russian-speaking minority could one day become a pretext for aggression.
“Estonia's security begins with Ukraine”, Ms Kallas said on Thursday, after a TV debate between party leaders.
“We must support them both militarily and economically as they fight for their freedom and democratic values.”
The media-friendly Ms Kallas has been courted by leaders including UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who flew with her to visit troops in Estonia last year, and EU and Nato leaders who marked the war’s anniversary with her in Tallinn.
The UK sent 1,000 troops and several Challenger 2 tanks to Estonia after the war began, bolstering the British-led Nato battalion that is permanently stationed in Estonia.
Plans are afoot to synchronise military exercises with sister Nato forces in Lithuania and Latvia, which are led by Germany and Canada respectively.
Ms Kallas’s uncompromising image has led to comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s “iron lady” of the 1980s. Ms Kallas has said Thatcher “had many things right”.
Her critics say Ms Kallas has overseen economic strife and one of the EU’s highest inflation rates — currently 17.8 per cent — while nationalists accuse her of ceding too much influence to Brussels.
The right-wing EKRE party is promising to cut energy prices by scrapping green policies such as carbon levies.
It says Estonia has “taken a great risk” by parting with so much heavy weaponry and argued that the military aid to Ukraine could entice Russian aggression.
“We shouldn't be further escalating tensions on our part. I just don't think that's sensible”, party leader Martin Helme told public broadcaster ERR.
Mr Helme has also said Estonia cannot take in any more Ukrainian refugees, who he said were straining health and education budgets in the country of 1.4 million.
EKRE was leading some polls before the Russian invasion of Ukraine but Ms Kallas’s Reform Party saw a surge in popularity in the early weeks of the conflict and retains a clear lead.
The Centre Party, traditionally popular among Estonia’s Russian-speaking minority and open to dialogue with Moscow, was kicked out of Ms Kallas’s coalition last year and now sits third in the polls.
About a third of eligible voters have already cast ballots, most of them electronically, under a prized system of “e-governance” that is credited with boosting Estonia’s resilience to Russian cyberattacks.
Ms Kallas, the daughter of former prime minster Siim Kallas, would be in pole position to lead a new coalition if her Reform Party comes first in the polls, although she has ruled out a coalition with EKRE.
But it is possible that her term could soon be cut short when Nato appoints a successor to Jens Stoltenberg as Secretary General, a post with which Ms Kallas has repeatedly been linked.
