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Finland’s cautious steps towards Nato membership are influencing the debate in neighbouring Sweden and tilting public opinion towards joining the alliance, said a pollster who found a majority of Swedes would support such a move.
The two Nordic countries are considering a historic change in policy after Russia, which has a 1,340-kilometre land border with Finland and faces Sweden across the Baltic Sea, shattered the assumptions of post-Cold War Europe by invading Ukraine.
Neither government has come down on one side of the debate, with politicians balancing the potential benefits of being under Nato’s security umbrella against the risks of antagonising Russia.
A new survey by polling institute Novus showed 51 per cent of Swedes supporting Nato membership regardless of what Finland does, the first majority on record from that pollster.
But support for membership rose to 64 per cent if Finland also joined, after Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson, the prime ministers of the two countries, said they would work together on security but decide independently whether to join Nato.
“Swedish opinion in favour of Nato is increasing because they believe it will be done together with Finland and are then more positive to a Swedish membership," Novus chief executive Torbjorn Sjostrom said.
“Sanna Marin’s visit to Sweden and the press conference together with Magdalena Andersson show that Sweden and Finland have made this more clearly a common cause,” he said.
Russia, which views Nato expansion as a prime security grievance, has threatened consequences including a potential escalation of its nuclear posture if Sweden and Finland join the alliance.
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said on Thursday she wanted to speed up the completion of a policy analysis that is meant to guide discussions by MPs.
She told broadcaster Sveriges Radio that she wanted it completed by May 13, instead of May 31 as currently planned.
"Finland has already published its analysis and there is strong pressure on us to complete ours," she said.
Sweden's ruling Social Democrats, who have historically opposed any accession to Nato, said last week they would begin an internal debate on whether it should seek membership. Ms Marin has said Finland will decide in weeks whether to apply.
Finland’s review did not take one side or the other but said Russia was likely to keep opposing Nato expansion and that a failure to react to this posture could lead to a “narrowing of Finland’s room for manoeuvre”.
Many European diplomats have spoken of a changed security environment since Russia invaded Ukraine, with Nato in the process of rethinking its strategy on its eastern flank to deter a potential attack.
Any membership bid from Finland and Sweden would have to be approved by all 30 current members. The US has indicated it would not expect this to be a problem.
