Poland risks Russian aggression as it becomes key weapons route for Ukraine

Military analysts say Warsaw's role in the conflict makes it vulnerable to sabotage and cyber-attacks from Kremlin agents

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  A young woman looks out the window as her train arrives from Pokrovsk, in the east of Ukraine, to Lviv in the country's centre. Getty

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  A truck carries black bags containing bodies exhumed from a mass grave for investigations in Bucha, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. AP

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  A child uses an air rifle to shoot at a target with the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Lviv, Ukraine. Getty

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  Firefighters try to contain a blaze at a factory after Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Reuters

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  A woman reads as residents shelter from Russian shelling in a Kharkiv metro station. Reuters

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  Ukrainian rescuers try to put out the fire at a private building after shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. EPA

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  A couple of residents walk past burning shops after a Russian attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP Photo

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  A destroyed Russian tank on the outskirts of Buzova village in Kyiv draws crowds of curious residents. AFP

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  The Russian offensive in the Kyiv region has left a huge crater on a bridge in Makariv. AFP

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  Workers put an Ukrainian flag on a pole in the centre of Makariv. AFP

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  A Ukrainian mother is comforted by relatives after the body of her son was discovered in a manhole in Buzova village, west of Kyiv. AFP

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  An injured Ukrainian on a medical evacuation train bound for the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP

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  A Doctors Without Borders team at work on medical evacuation train. AFP

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  A damaged building in the southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters

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  Graves of the victims of the Ukraine-Russia conflict in Mariupol. Reuters

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  Emergency workers sift through debris of a damaged building in Mariupol. Reuters

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  The conflict has forced Mariupol residents to wait in line for drinking water. Reuters

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  A Russian military vehicle in Mariupol. Reuters

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  Food distribution at a church in the town of Borodyanka, north-west of Kyiv. AP

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  A visitor is in shock after returning to her church, which had come under Russian attack, in the Kyiv town of Makaro. AP

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  Mourners gather at the funeral of Ukrainian soldier Andriy Zagornyakon in Kamianka-Buzka. Getty Images

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  A resident returns with his dog to survey his damaged building in Kharkiv. EPA

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  A woman and a child are forced to sit on the corridor of a building in Kharkiv that is used as a bomb shelter. EPA

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  A Ukrainian guard in the eastern town of Barvinkove, during Russia's invasion of its neighbouring country. AFP

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  Ukrainian guards strengthen their position in the eastern town of Barvinkove. AFP

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  Emotional farewell at the train station in the eastern Ukrainian city Kramatorsk, which has come under Russian attack. AFP

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  A Ukrainian serviceman surveys the damaged cultural centre, in the town of Rubizhne, Luhansk region. AFP

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  A participant at the pro-Ukrainian demonstration outside Downing Street in London. Reuters

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  Colleagues bid farewell to Yuriy Dadak-Ruf and Taras Kryt, the Ukrainian soldiers killed in Russian shelling of the Luhansk region. Reuters

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  A villager warms himself in the yard of his house in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP

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  Vlad, the six-year old Ukrainian who lost his mother during their confinement in a Bucha basement amid the Russian invasion, plays with a friend inside his house. AP

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  A group of women wait to receive free food in Bucha. AP

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  Shakhtar Donetsk players carry the Ukrainian flag before their football match against Olympiakos in Piraeus, near Athens. AP

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  Rescue workers clear the rubble of an apartment building in Borodianka. Getty Images

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  A man repairs the roof of a house while standing on a ladder, in Andriivka, Ukraine. Getty Images

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  Valerii, 65, rides by his destroyed apartment building in Borodianka. Getty Images

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  A Ukrainian woman in Borodianka waits as rescue workers search for her daughter, her son-in-law and her granddaughter among the rubble. Getty Images

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  Family photos are scattered among the debris of a destroyed apartment tower in Borodianka. Getty Images

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  A distraught survivor of the attack on Borodianka. Getty Images

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  Debris of an apartment building in Borodianka. Getty Images

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  A writing on the gate of a destroyed building in Andriivka - 'Shells, mines?' - points to the threat faced by Ukrainians. Getty Images

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  Another writing on the fence of a destroyed building, in Andriivka, reads 'People children live here'. Getty Images

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  A bullet-riddled car near Ozera. Getty Images

Poland has become a key arms supply route in the Ukraine war but is also becoming more vulnerable to attack from Russia, military analysts told The National.

With hundreds of armoured vehicles, sophisticated missiles and vital spare parts moving east, the potential for a subversive or direct strike has increased substantially.

There are also fears that Moscow’s intelligence operatives have infiltrated Poland to observe arms movements.

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Saturday that 150 armoured vehicles will be sent to the war, boosting a growing stockpile of weapons that could help Ukraine to oust Russian invaders.

But with the weapons increasing in sophistication, including drones and anti-ship missiles, Russia might consider targeting the supply chains, especially if it suffers defeats on the battlefield.

“In a way Poland is the Ukrainian rear,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a UK think-tank analyst currently in Poland. “This comes with all the risks at times of war: spill-over of the conflict, cyber-attacks in Poland, infowar and possible sabotage activities.”

Military expert Sam Cranny-Evans agreed that Moscow’s secret agents could be used.

“Russia might try to do something clandestine like it has for a while in Ukraine, but that carries enormous risk for them,” said the Royal United Services Institute analyst.

“It would be in Russia’s interests to keep this war to what it calls a local conflict. Expanding it horizontally to include Poland and others in a regional conflict would be very bad for Russia.”

The importance of Poland should not be underestimated the analysts said, both as a weapons supply route and a bastion against further incursion.

“Poland is key,” said Ms Lutsevych, of the London-based Chatham House think tank who is currently with family in Poland who have escaped Ukraine. “Both state and citizens understand the urgency of the situation and that Ukraine is a shield for Nato’s eastern flank. Also, the ground supply routes for military support allow Ukraine to resist and provide an exit route for Ukrainian women and children to a safe heaven. Many of them continue to work out of Poland to help the effort in Ukraine.”

The weapons sent to help Ukraine – in pictures

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  Workers unloading a Royal Canadian Air Force military transport plane to assist Ukraine at Lviv airport. AFP

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  A new member of the Territorial Defence Forces trains to operate an AT4 anti-tank launcher in Kyiv. Reuters

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  A plane loaded with military equipment for Ukrainian forces takes off from Albacete, Spain. EPA

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  A Ukrainian soldier holds a Next Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon used to destroy a Russian armoured personal carrier in Irpin, north of Kyiv. AFP

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  A Ukrainian serviceman with a Javelin missile system on the front line near Kyiv. Reuters

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  A soldier holds a Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank rocket launcher at the Munster military training area in Germany in 2016. Getty Images

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  A US Marine Corps staff sergeant aims a M72 Light Anti-tank Weapon. Photo: US National Archives

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  The Switchblade is a camera-equipped, remote-controlled flying bomb with a reputation for pinpoint delivery. AP Photo

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  A coalition forces member fires a Carl Gustav recoilless rifle system during weapons practice on a range in Helmand province, Afghanistan, in 2013. US Army Photo

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  A Starstreak surface-to-air missile system. PA

Weapons from around the world have been arriving in the Nato country – Poland borders Ukraine and Belarus – with vehicles and ammunition coming from America, Australia, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

It was claimed on Monday that an S-300 air defence system in eastern Ukraine that was donated by European allies was destroyed by a Russian Kalibur missile strike.

“Poland has been really important so far as a staging post to Ukraine,” Mr Cranny-Evans said. “Warsaw has made it clear that they want Russia defeated, so Moscow will be a bit wary of doing anything too risky near the border that might give Poland a pretext for greater involvement.”

The country also has a significant armoured manufacturing industry that could be used to service damaged Ukrainian vehicles or supply new stocks of T-72 tanks.

Russian secret services were heavily implicated in an arson attack on a Czech arms factory and fears of sabotage remain.

“Poland has one of the largest stocks of T-72s in Europe, and have developed fairly capable upgrades for them in partnership with Ukraine in the past,” Mr Cranny-Evans said.

While Moscow has vowed to strike at supply columns that support the Ukraine war effort it has yet to go beyond Ukraine’s border, although there is intelligence to suggest fuel depots could be targeted.

“Russia has certainly threatened to attack weapon convoys and now that the weaponry is increasing in its sophistication and hardware, that remains a possibility,” said Brig Ben Barry of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. “But that would certainly mean that Russia runs the risk of escalation in return from Poland.”

The threat of a Russian attack has led Britain to send its advanced Sky Sabre air defence system to Poland, joining the US Patriot anti-ballistic batteries that are defending key airports.

Brig Barry suggested that Russian agents, possibly from the GRU foreign intelligence service, would be conducting reconnaissance operations on foreign arms arrivals.

“They will certainly be spying on the kit that's going out to Poland and into Ukraine so they’ve got an idea of what they're up against,” he said. “If the new offensive goes badly for them in eastern Ukraine then that could lead Russia to consider a strike beyond Ukraine, whether covert or otherwise.”