How Wagner mercenaries could be Russia's 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine

Western powers believe shadowy company is recruiting thousands of troops to fight for the Kremlin

Ukraine says Russia has suffered heavy casualties during the invasion that has entered the second month. Reuters

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Russia is increasingly relying on soldiers from the mercenary Wagner Group to shore up its flagging army in Ukraine and limit its official military casualties, according to a British intelligence chief.

Spymasters believe Wagner is ready to “step up a gear” in helping Russia’s armed forces and looking at relocating soldiers from other conflict zones in which it has intervened, including Libya, Syria and Central Africa.

Although in theory a private company, Wagner is widely seen as acting as a proxy for the Russian state and is thought to be financed by Kremlin confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin, a catering tycoon nicknamed “Putin’s chef”. Jeremy Fleming, the director of British intelligence service GCHQ said Thursday the private army, which was added to the UK’s sanctions list last week, is working to send large numbers of personnel to Ukraine to fight alongside Russia’s armed forces.

Its mercenaries have allegedly been given the task of assassinating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a years-long presence in the country, fighting alongside pro-Russian separatists.

Any deployment to Ukraine could enable Russia to take pressure off its own troops, reinvigorate its efforts in the eastern Donbas region and use Wagner as a cover for heavy losses and questionable military activities.

Wagner “works as a shadow branch of the Russian military, providing implausible deniability for riskier operations”, said Mr Fleming in a speech in Australia.

But any operatives sent to Ukraine “are likely to be used as cannon fodder to try to limit Russian military losses”, he said. The Kremlin denies any affiliation with Wagner.

A Ukrainian soldier fires his rifle from a trench at the front east of Kharkiv in the north of Ukraine, which continues to be shelled by Russian forces. AFP

A gas station on fire in Kharkiv after Russian ttack on the northern city. AFP

A medieval suit of armour 'stands guard' at a a Ukrainian checkpoint, on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv. AP Photo

Ukrainian refugees wait in line to cross the border into Poland at Shehyni. Reuters

Destroyed Russian armoured vehicles on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP Photo

A resident passes apartment buildings destroyed by Russian attacks in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, standing, welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to address the House of Representatives via video link at Parliament House in Canberra. Mr Zelenskyy appealed directly to Australian legislators for more help in the war against Russia, including armoured vehicles and tougher sanctions. AP

Fire lights up the sky east of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces pushed back Russian troops from a motorway outside the country's second-largest city. AFP

A destroyed Russian tank in the village of Lukianivka near Kyiv. AFP

Passengers arriving from Moscow at Manas International Airport, Bishkek, Kyrgyrzstan. Hundreds of thousands of citizens of former Soviet countries in Central Asia are facing difficult choices: shrinking work opportunities in Russia and wages in the weakened rouble versus a return to the homeland where they have family homes, but even fewer job prospects. AFP

Fire and smoke light up the sky east of Kharkiv as Ukrainian forces push back Russian troops from a motorway outside the country's second-largest city. AFP

A Ukrainian soldier shoots at the Russian positions not far from the capital Kyiv. EPA

A car marked with the English letter 'Z' is found destroyed at the central Ukrainian train station that was used as a Russian base in Trostyanets. Ukrainian forces said they had retaken the north-eastern town from the Russians. Getty Images

Rescue workers at the site of the regional administration building hit by Russian cruise missiles, in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. Reuters

A dog looks at cars passing by on the road near a house painted with the colors of the Ukrainian flag, on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv. AP Photo

A soldier poses for the picture in Kyiv, Ukraine, while standing guard amid the destruction caused after shelling of a shopping center. AP Photo

A Ukrainian serviceman stands near a destroyed Russian tank in the north-eastern city of Trostianets. AFP

A worker pushes a cart past graves of Ukrainian soldiers who were killed in battle during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, at the Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv. Reuters

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damaged apartment buildings and homes in Mariupol. AP

A resident takes photos of a destroyed Russian tank next to the railway station where the Russian forces were stationed, in Trostyanets, a town recaptured by the Ukrainian army. EPA

A rescuer clears the rubble of a warehouse containing more than 50,000 tons of deep-frozen food in the town of Brovary, north of Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, after it was destroyed by Russian shelling. AFP

A Ukrainian army vehicle carries a Russian tank in Trostyanets. AFP

Ukrainian soldiers carry a coffin during the funeral ceremony of a comrade in Odesa. EPA

A man walks with his dog near an apartment building damaged by shelling from fighting on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP Photo

Members of the Danish Parliament attend the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky's speech to the Danish Parliament via a video link, at the Christiansborg Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. EPA

A satellite image shows crowds outside a Metro grocery store in Mariupol. Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opens Ukrainian-Russian talks in Istanbul. President Erdogan told the delegations that "both parties have legitimate concerns." AFP

Members of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps fire a howitzer at a position in the Zaporizhzhia region. Reuters

Ukrainian refugees are helped by volunteers upon their arrival at Amsterdam Central station by train from Berlin. AFP

Ukrainian soldiers ride an armoured people carrier through the town of Trostsyanets, about 400 kilometres east of Kyiv. AP Photo

Firefighters work amid the debris of residential houses that were destroyed by Russian shelling in a settlement outside Kharkiv. Reuters

President Joe Biden said that he is not advocating for regime change in Moscow after saying Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power." AP Photo

Firefighters work to extinguish a fire at a warehouse after it was hit by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. More than half of Kharkiv's 1.4 million people have fled the city since Russia's invasion on February 24. Getty Images

Local residents pass by a destroyed Russian tank in the town of Trostyanets, east of capital Kyiv, Ukraine. The monument to the Second World War is seen in background. AP Photo

A pro-Russian troop service member walks near a destroyed apartment building in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters

Mykhaylo, 8, who was taken away from his widowed mother along with his 9-year-old brother and 16-year-old sister, plays with a ball in the garden of a state shelter in Lviv. Reuters

Halyna Falko, 52, talks to reporters while looking at the destruction caused after a Russian attack inside her house near Brovary, on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP Photo

Curtains flutter in the wind at a building that was damaged by shelling in a neighbourhood that has been largely abandoned and left without water, gas and heating, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Reuters

People, mainly women and children, arrive at Przemysl on a train from Odesa in war-torn Ukraine in Przemysl, Poland. The Polish government has said it may spend €24 billion this year hosting refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine, and is seeking more support from the European Union. Getty Images

A woman walks a dog past the so-called "people's installation to a Russian soldier" nicknamed the "polite people" created by residents in the backyard of their apartment building in the town of Podolsk, outside Moscow. AFP

Mr Fleming’s comments came in a speech in which he described Russian troops as low on morale and ammunition and advisers in Moscow as too scared to tell President Vladimir Putin how badly his army is faring.

Britain has said that most of the Russian forces stationed on the Ukrainian border in the prelude to the invasion have already been sent in but have failed to deliver decisive military victories.

In the US, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Wagner had about 1,000 people dedicated to the fighting in eastern Ukraine and appeared to be recruiting for contractors in Syria and North Africa.

Mr Kirby said the use of Wagner troops was a “reflection of the very tough fighting” in eastern Ukraine and was a sign that Mr Putin was reinforcing Russia’s presence in the region after its offensive towards Kyiv lost momentum.

The death toll among Russian troops is estimated by Ukraine and its allies as running into the thousands, the kind of losses which analysts believe Mr Putin has previously sought to avoid by using Wagner mercenaries as cover.

Mr Zelenskyy says the casualties in Ukraine are higher than those suffered by Russia during its 1990s wars in Chechnya, which unfolded in part while Mr Putin was prime minister under former president Boris Yeltsin.

Under Mr Putin’s presidency, Russia denied having any military role in the war in Libya, but Wagner troops were widely documented as being one of the many groups of foreign fighters who took part in the conflict.

Western powers have described Wagner as breaching a UN arms embargo in Libya by importing weapons, which the US said had been supplied by the Russian state.

These included Russian military cargo aircraft and air defence equipment, according to the Pentagon, which said in 2020 that the Kremlin “lies about [Russian involvement] every time they deny it”.

Wagner has also been accused of arbitrary executions and other human rights abuses in a string of countries, including Syria, Libya, Sudan, Mozambique and the Central African Republic.

In Syria, Wagner is believed by European powers to have trained government forces and other militias loyal to President Bashar Al Assad, a Russian ally.

The European Council said in December that Wagner mercenaries had made a “crucial contribution” to Mr Assad’s war efforts in the long-running conflict.

In Mali, western powers believe Wagner has been hired by the government to fight an extremist insurgency in a move that drew condemnation from the US and its allies.

US diplomat Sarah Creedon told the UN’s Human Rights Council in Geneva this week that Wagner’s involvement meant “abusive military operations will likely mount, and civilians will suffer”.

“The price to pay is just too high,” she said.