Bloody insurgency predicted if Russia topples Ukraine government

Institute for Economics and Peace issues grim prediction of a fragmented country with armed militias vying for control

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  A Ukrainian soldier walks past the shell of a burnt military vehicle, on a street in Kiev. AP

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  A screengrab from CCTV footage shows a missile hitting a residential building in Kiev. Reuters

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  A man inspects a broken window, after shelling carried out by Russian troops in the Ukrainian capital. Reuters

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  Ukrainian soldiers take positions outside a military centre as two cars burn on a street in Kiev. AP

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  Medical specialists transport a woman, who was wounded in the shelling of an apartment building, to an ambulance, as her husband looks on. Reuters

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  A woman outside her apartment building after it was damaged by a rocket, in Kiev. AP

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  A Ukrainian police officer detains a driver on a street in Kiev. AP

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  A soldier's helmet with a bullet hole on a street in the Ukrainian capital. AP

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  Ukrainian soldiers walk by a damaged vehicle, at the site of fighting with Russian troops, in Kiev. Reuters

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  Ukrainian policemen move parrots to safety after a high-rise apartment block was damaged by shelling in Kiev. EPA

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  A screengrab from a video shows rescue workers carrying a person at the site of a damaged multi-storey residential building, south-west of the Ukrainian capital. Reuters

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  A building damaged by shelling carried out by Russian troops in Kiev. EPA

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  Helga Tarasova comforts her daughter Kira Shapovalova as they wait in an underground shelter during a bombing alert in Kiev. AFP

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  A man walks past a building damaged by a rocket attack in the Ukrainian capital. AP

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  Emergency services workers near an apartment building damaged by shelling in Kiev. Reuters

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  Ukrainian soldiers collect unexploded shells in the capital. AFP

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  An apartment building damaged by shelling in Kiev. Reuters

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  Debris of a burnt military truck on a street in Kiev. AP

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  Natali Sevriukova stands next to her home after a rocket attack in Kiev, Ukraine. AP

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  People on foot and in cars move to cross from Ukraine to Poland at the Korczowa-Krakovets border crossing following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP

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  Servicemen from the Ukrainian National Guard in central Kiev. Reuters

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  Ukrainian soldiers in downtown Kiev after Russian troops reached the outskirts of the capital. AP Photo

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  Police officers detain demonstrators in St. Petersburg, Russia. Hundreds of people gathered in Moscow and St. Petersburg on Thursday, protesting against Russia's attack on Ukraine. Similar protests took place in other Russian cities, and activists were also arrested. AP Photo

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  Hungarian troops in Vasarosnameny, close to the border with Ukraine, prepare to help refugees. AP Photo

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  Wrecked Russian army rocket launchers in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Reuters

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  The aftermath of a rocket attack in Kiev. AP Photo

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  A US Air Force jet refuels over Poland. Reuters

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  Devastation after shelling in Ukraine's Luhansk enclave. Reuters

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  The Royal Welsh Battlegroup from the UK makes its way to Estonia. Reuters

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  Firefighters tackle a blaze in a building in Kiev. AFP

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  The wreckage of an unidentified aircraft in a residential area in Kiev. Reuters

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  Smoke rises near the Ukrainian Defence Ministry in Kiev. Reuters

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  Russian military helicopters fly over the Ukrainian capital. AP

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  An anxious wait to board a train to leave Kiev as the attack loomed. AP Photo

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  Ukrainian servicemen on tanks in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. AP Photo

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  Ukraine troops said this destroyed armoured vehicle outside Kharkiv belonged to the Russian army. Reuters

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  Rescuers at the crash site after a Ukraine armed forces Antonov aircraft was shot down in Kiev, according to the Ukrainian authorities. Reuters

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  Ukrainian tanks that aim to repel an attack by the Russian military in the Luhansk enclave of Ukraine. AFP

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  A Ukrainian State Border Guard Service base is ablaze after heavy shelling near Kiev. Reuters

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  Damaged radar at a Ukrainian military plant outside Mariupol. Officials in Kiev say Russian troops have rolled into the country from the north, east and south. AP Photo

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  Firefighters attend a blaze after bombing in the eastern Ukrainian town of Chuguiv, as Russian armed forces appeared to be bombarding Ukraine from several directions. AFP

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  A traffic jam in Kiev, with many Ukrainians leaving their capital after Russian troops entered. EPA

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  The Border Service of Ukraine released CCTV footage purporting to show Russian military vehicles passing a checkpoint to drive into Crimea. AP

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  A man picks up fragments of military materiel on the street after an apparent Russian strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine. AP

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  Workers load the debris of a rocket on to a lorry in the aftermath of Russian shelling in Kiev. AP

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  Emergency staff treat an injured man after bombing in Chuguiv. AFP

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  An American woman in distress after crossing the border to flee the violence in Ukraine, in Medyka, Poland. Reuters

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  People take shelter in a Kiev subway station, after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised a military operation in eastern Ukraine. Reuters

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  People in a rush near Kiev-Pasazhyrskyi railway station in the Ukrainian capital. AFP

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  A Flightradar24.com screengrab shows a dearth of civilian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace after the Russian invasion. AP

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  The aftermath of bombing in Chuguiv. AFP

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  A Ukrainian rocket launcher vehicle prepares for action. Reuters

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  Cars are driven across a field to leave the city of Kharkiv. Reuters

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  People chant, carry placards and wave Ukrainian flags as they gather in Sydney, to demonstrate against Russian attacks on its neighbour. AP

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  People with many of their belongings packed take shelter in a Metro station in Kiev. AFP

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  Emergency services at the scene of an explosion at a military unit building in Kiev. EPA

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  A Kiev resident sweeps up debris after Russian shelling. AP

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  The first 40 soldiers of the 173rd US Army Airborne Brigade step off a military plane in Latvia. EPA

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  More damage from shelling in Kiev. AP

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  People wait at a bus station to travel to western parts of Ukraine, after violence in the east. Reuters

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  A woman carries her cats in a quest for a safe haven. AFP

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  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy holds an urgent government meeting in Kiev to discuss the next step. AFP

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  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and foreign policy chief Josep Borrell give a joint statement in Brussels, updating the press about the situation in Ukraine. EPA

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  People survey the damage after bombing in Chuguiv. AFP

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  A building on fire in Chuguiv. AFP

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Russian forces could face a sustained and bloody insurgency lasting years if it topples the Ukraine government and appoints a puppet administration, a leading think tank has said.

It also predicted the situation could echo Syria or Iraq, with many local militias fighting it out as more and more weapons are pumped into the country.

These are some of the key findings of a briefing on the Russian attack on Ukraine by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), which produces the annual Global Terrorism Index.

The forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin continue to bombard towns across the country, with multiple civilian deaths reported.

He will be seen as an alien, a virus and the Ukrainians will certainly want to find ways to get rid of him

Sean Bell,
Air Vice-Marshal (Retd), Royal Air Force

Ukraine remains in control of most major cities but the briefing from the Sydney-based think tank suggested deaths from terror attacks in Ukraine are likely to increase in the coming months and that this would rise proportionally with the intensity of the conflict.

“If Russia does capture Kiev and gets the government to fall, they will try to install a puppet government,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the IEP.

“The obvious question is would that government be able to stand without strong support from the Russian military?”

The most likely outcome would be a prolonged insurgency lasting for several years, said Mr Killelea.

The briefing on the crisis in Ukraine was released along with the IEP’s annual Global Terrorism Index, which looked at the impact of terrorist incidents around the world over the past 12 months.

The invasion, which began last month, came after a decade of deteriorating relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West, the IEP briefing said.

“Just like what happened with Iraq, the likelihood is there will be more weapons pumped into Ukraine,” said Mr Killelea.

“This will give Ukrainian insurgents the ability to mount a sustained campaign against whatever government would be in place.”

He also warned of the potential of civil militia groups to rise up and attack each other, a situation that was prevalent in Syria and Iraq where conflict was sustained over long periods.

The most likely region of Ukraine to be affected by insurgencies is Donbas, Mr Killelea said.

The UN has estimated that armed conflict in the south-eastern part of Ukraine between government forces and Russian-backed separatists has killed more than 14,000 people since 2014.

“You could see different militias arise and start to attack each other,” said Mr Killelea.

“One of the ways this things go is the Russians can try to enlist or create local militias and then you have those who want to free Ukraine who will be fighting back.

“Obviously we are not at that stage yet but it is a possibility.”

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  People desperate to leave Ukraine try to board a train at the railway station in Lviv. All photos: Oliver Marsden for The National

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  Ukrainian men returning from Poland to fight for their country help pass over donations of clothes at the border crossing from Poland into Ukraine.

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  A train driver tells people on the platform that he cannot pick anyone up at the station in Lviv.

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  An elderly woman sits alone waiting to cross the border from Ukraine into Poland as fighting continues.

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  Days-long waits to cross borders have been reported.

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  Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 have been stopped from leaving Ukraine amid a conscription drive to defend against Russia.

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  A couple carry their child out of the ticket hall at Lviv railway station.

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  A family attempts to walk the last 25 kilometres of the journey to the Polish border.

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  A mother tries to keep her daughter warm on the platform of Lviv railway station.

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  Elise from Kiev sits waiting for a train to take her out of Ukraine after hearing that Poland has closed its borders.

The briefing also warned of the threat posed to the wider world by the rise of cyber attacks on Ukraine by Russia.

“If the conflict is not unfolding as Russia had hoped and it perceives the flow of weapons from European countries to Ukraine as hostile, it may order hackers to extend their reach to paralyse those opposing Russian efforts,” the briefing said.

Another expert unrelated to the think tank's briefing said an insurgency is likely if Mr Putin is able to topple the current regime in Ukraine.

“What he will leave behind is a country that doesn’t want him there,” said Sean Bell, a former air vice marshal who served with the UK military and is now an adviser with global defence consultants UDSS.

“He will be seen as an alien, like a virus and the nationals will certainly want to find ways to get rid of him.

“He will find it very difficult to run the country and there will probably be a lengthy insurgency against him.”

He said the insurgency could mean Ukraine becomes like Nazi-occupied France.

“It will be a bit like France during that period, with a resistance against an occupying power to make as difficult as possible for them,” added Mr Bell.