As the pink poppy fields of southern Afghanistan yield their sticky harvest, opium production in the country that supplies the world with heroin is set to fall, farmers and officials say.
The farmers and other experts cited high rainfall in some areas, drought in others, free seeds for alternatives such as wheat and good prices for food crops, and a mysterious disease withering poppies in some areas.
Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN's Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), told the BBC that Afghanistan's 2010 opium output could fall by up to 25 per cent, thanks to the disease, a fungus that could have infected about half of the total poppy crop.
Bilal, a farmer in Helmand's Nad Ali district, said the disease had drastically cut his opium output.
"We are in the very last days of the harvest, maybe in two or three more days we'll be done. We'll have less output this year," he told AFP. "I don't know what the disease is but we'll have little output (as a result)."
That's good news for the fight against the multi-billion-dollar drugs trade but it could be bad news for Afghan farmers struggling to feed their families as the war against Taliban insurgents and drugs gangs escalates.
"This year we had less poppy cultivation, which I think was because of our public awareness campaign which we launched before cultivation started," said Gul Mohammad, head of the counter-narcotics department of Kandahar province.
Farmers in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand, the source of around 90 per cent of the world's opium, agreed the harvest will fall this year.
While some farmers have reportedly accused the United States and Britain of spraying their crops with chemicals, UNODC said disease was the likely culprit.
Tests by the interior ministry were inconclusive and more were being carried out, said the agency's representative in Kabul, Jean-Luc Lemahieu, adding that "plagues, pests, blight" had hit Afghanistan's poppy crop in 2002 and 2006.
"Natural phenomenon cannot be excluded, as happens to wheat, corn, apples. It is part of nature," Mr Lemahieu said.
UNODC said opium output was down by 10 per cent in 2009 to 6,900 tonnes, but yield rose 15 per cent because farmers extracted more opium per bulb.
Production far outstripped annual world demand of 5,000 tonnes, it said, with stockpiles of opium estimated at 10,000 tonnes as cartels hoarded in an effort to push up prices that had fallen by 30 per cent in a year.
Stockpiles were equal to two years' supply of heroin for addicts, or three years of morphine for medical use, it said.
Mr Lemahieu said it was too early to say if 2010 output would be lower than last year's - making it the third consecutive annual fall - but yields were likely to be affected.
Stockpiles had kept opium and heroin prices artificially high, which could encourage Afghan farmers to continue to plant poppies, he said, adding that the price of alternative cash crops, from almonds to wheat, would also be a factor.
The impact of the conflict between insurgents - who often work with drugs gangs to protect crops and distribution routes - and Western-backed government forces would also influence farmers, he said.
Afghans would plant whatever earned most and the instability of war could see them favour the "one sure way of safe-guarding against an insecure future," he said.
Marjah, a major poppy-producing region in Helmand, was targeted in a military campaign in February that aimed to push out the Taliban, who were acting as enforcers for the drugs gangs.
Afghanistan's opium industry is worth up to $3 billion (Dh11bn) a year, supplying Russia, where authorities say it kills between 30,000 and 40,000 addicts a year, and Europe.
Mr Lemahieu said about $150 million funds the insurgency, widely seen as based on ideology but fast becoming a militia for the cartels with tenuous links to the religious extremists who founded the Taliban.
A recent report by the independent Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit said the Taliban were "increasingly seen as synonymous with drug traffickers".
But it added: "There is a growing belief in the south that those working for the government are more actively involved in the trade in narcotics than the Taliban."
* AFP
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
