Final polls from the Philippine presidential election are showing the son of former leader Ferdinand Marcos heading for a landslide win.
Victory in Monday's election would cap a decades-long effort to rehabilitate the Marcos legacy after the former dictator was deposed and the family chased into exile in the US.
But the prospect of Ferdinand Marcos Jr moving back into the presidential palace has alarmed rights activists, church leaders and political analysts who fear he could rule "without constraint".
Ten candidates are vying to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte in the contest regarded by many as a make-or-break moment for the country's democracy.
The Marcos family's remarkable journey from pariahs to the peak of political power has been fuelled by public anger about corruption and poverty.
Polls indicate Mr Marcos Jr will win more than half the vote, which would make him the first presidential candidate to secure an absolute majority since his father was ousted in 1986.
Analysts say such an outcome would lead to weaker democratic checks and balances, more corruption and a new attempt to overhaul the 1987 constitution — which could include scrapping the one-term limit for presidents.
"If he wins really big, that could give him the kind of confidence and momentum to more radically alter the Philippines' political system," analyst Richard Heydarian said.
Previous administrations, including Mr Duterte's, have tried to amend the constitution but lacked sufficient support in Congress to push through the changes.
The latest poll by Pulse Asia Research showed Mr Marcos Jr on 56 per cent — 33 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival Leni Robredo, who narrowly beat him in the 2016 vice-presidential race
Such a winning margin would give Mr Marcos Jr the power to "govern the way Duterte wanted to", one long-time observer of Philippine politics told AFP.
"That is, without constraint," he said.
Ms Robredo, 57, has warned supporters that the "future of the country" is at stake.
Her recent poll bump has raised hopes among progressive supporters that their volunteer-driven campaign could yet deliver an upset.
But pollster Ana Maria Tabunda of Pulse Asia Research said there was little chance of that.
"Our error margin is only plus or minus two percentage points — given the large gap, it's not going to be affecting the results," Ms Tabunda said.
Allegations of dirty tricks marred the last week of a bitter presidential campaign, as Mr Marcos Jr issued a warning about vote-rigging while Ms Robredo accused him of being a liar.
Monday's winner only needs to get more votes than anyone else.
"I think this election is very important ... our next six years of life will depend on it," said Charmaigne Ang, 18, a first-time voter who was among thousands of people gathered in Manila's financial district for a rally by Ms Robredo on Saturday.
Still smarting from his 2016 loss, Mr Marcos Jr has run a tightly controlled campaign, skipping televised debates with rivals and largely shunning media interviews to avoid own goals before election day.
He has instead posted folksy videos on YouTube that seek to present him and his wealthy family as regular Filipinos, and fielded easy questions from celebrity interviewers.
A large and well-funded social media misinformation campaign targeting a mostly young electorate with no memory of his father's violent and corrupt rule has also sought to rewrite the family's history.
Mr Marcos Jr's popularity has been further enhanced by a formidable alliance with vice-presidential front-runner and first daughter Sara Duterte, and the backing of several rival political dynasties.
Days before the election, rights defenders and many Catholic priests made a final push to stop Mr Marcos Jr returning to the Malacanang Palace, where he grew up.
"It will be another six years of hell," warned political satirist and activist Mae Paner, 58, who was part of a popular uprising that ended the elder Marcos's regime and has been campaigning for Ms Robredo.
Hundreds of priests publicly endorsed Ms Robredo and her running mate Francis Pangilinan, telling their congregations that the election was a "battle for the soul" of the nation.
But Ms Robredo faces an uphill battle, said Cleve Arguelles, an assistant lecturer in political science at De La Salle University in Manila.
After enduring six years of attacks from the elder Duterte, Ms Robredo has witnessed her popularity hammered by a relentless and vicious online smear campaign.
Mr Heydarian said her late decision to enter the race had cost valuable time, while "unnecessary infighting" among rival candidates had benefited Mr Marcos Jr.
"They are handing this on a silver platter to the princeling of Philippine politics, Bongbong Marcos," he said, using Mr Marcos Jr's nickname.
Match info:
Portugal 1
Ronaldo (4')
Morocco 0
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo
Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 28
Sector: Financial services
Investment: $9.5m
Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors.
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard