The unrelenting high coronavirus caseload in India’s southern Kerala state is hampering the country's recovery from the pandemic as infection rates elsewhere in the world’s second most populous nation fall significantly.
Nationwide coronavirus cases have dropped over ten times from the peak during the brutal second wave in April and May, that left nearly 250,000 dead and more than 22 million infected as the country’s healthcare system failed to cope with the surge.
But the coastal state of nearly 35 million residents is “simmering” with fresh infections driven by the delta variant of Covid-19, with it accounting for nearly two thirds of the nation’s daily Covid-19 infections.
The Indian health ministry said 26,115 fresh infections were confirmed on Monday, with 16,700 of those in Kerala, where the daily positive test rate continues to hover around 18 per cent.
Some 252 deaths were also reported, nearly half of them in the state, where 4.4 million infection cases and 23,591 deaths have been confirmed since the pandemic began last year.
Experts say the infection spell is mostly due to a large portion of the state’s population remaining unexposed to the delta variant when other parts of the vast country were reeling from the pandemic.
“Kerala has a higher proportion of the vulnerable population that is not yet exposed to the virus compared to the rest of the country,” Rijo John, a health economist from the state, told The National.
“While the second wave surge and its decline were faster and it collapsed the healthcare infrastructure in much of India, it simmered for a longer time in Kerala,” he said.
India has confirmed 33 million cases and more than 450,000 deaths since the country was hit by the pandemic.
It reported its first case of Covid-19 in Kerala on January 30 last year, after a student returning from Wuhan in China was found to be infected with the virus. By September, the country was engulfed by the first wave of the pandemic.
On average about 100,000 infection cases were reported on a daily basis during the first wave, but Kerala was hailed globally for handling the pandemic through testing, contact tracing, maintaining social distancing and mask wearing.
But a year later, Kerala has become India’s “pandemic capital”, with cases climbing since April 2021, when local elections were held in the state.
The situation further deteriorated after Onam, the August harvest festival, when the locals defied social distancing measures and gathered in huge numbers to celebrate.
It is shocking how things have changed in one year. I feel the government’s decisions like lockdown or restrictions came very late and ended up having no use
Vishnu Prakash,
academic from Kochi city
Serologic surveys conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research in July that detect the presence of Covid-19 antibodies in blood found a 44 per cent rate in Kerala, compared with 68 per cent nationwide.
Factors such as high population density, less rural-urban divide and a large mobile population in the state are contributing to the surge, along with a stretched healthcare force, experts say.
Kerala is India’s most literate state with the highest life expectancy. It also invests the most in healthcare.
Its healthcare system did not crumble under pressure during the start of the pandemic, unlike the capital Delhi or Mumbai, and there has been no shortage of hospital beds, oxygen cylinders or intensive care facilities.
The death rate also remains the lowest, at 0.5 per cent, compared with a national average of 1.3 per cent.
But unlike last year when the state was able to track and treat each infected person, this year it is struggling to contain the spread while also running a vaccination programme.
Nearly 89 per cent of the state’s population has received a first vaccine dose, with restrictions being imposed on public movement in places where infection rates are high.
“There is no worry. We have imposed micro-containment in affected places … social distancing, mask and other guidelines are being followed. We have strong infrastructure and personnel to manage the situation,” Dr Rajesh VR, Kerala's Director of Health Services, told The National.
“The vaccination [programme] is going on in a steady manner, even on the holidays. Patients are being treated for free,” Dr Rajesh added.
But locals have expressed dismay over the government’s handling of the crisis.
“It is shocking how things have changed in one year. I feel the government’s decisions like lockdown or restrictions came very late and ended up having no use,” said Vishnu Prakash, 30, an academic from Kochi city.
Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, vice chairman of Kerala's doctors’ association, said a combination of factors was driving the “slow burn process” in Kerala.
He said although the state remains “fertile ground” for the delta variant to percolate, it has so far effectively handled the surge, that is seeing a downwards trend in recent days.
“The good thing was that we have so far prevented the pandemic from turning into an inferno,” Dr Jayadevan told The National.
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
MORE ON TURKEY'S SYRIA OFFENCE
Disposing of non-recycleable masks
Use your ‘black bag’ bin at home
Do not put them in a recycling bin
Take them home with you if there is no litter bin
- No need to bag the mask
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
INFO
What: DP World Tour Championship
When: November 21-24
Where: Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
More coverage from the Future Forum
Sweet%20Tooth
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Fines for littering
In Dubai:
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
