BULAWAYO, ZIMBABWE // The three-party unity government, formed in February, has failed to gain the confidence of western countries, which continue to withhold aid crucial to rebuilding Zimbabwe's shattered economy. The United States and the European Union have expressed doubts over the efficacy of the deal, which left Robert Mugabe, the long-time president, in control and the reform-minded former opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in the post of prime minister.
The West has adopted a wait-and-see approach and set benchmarks, including the restoration of the rule of law, property rights, media freedom and the economy as well as the full implementation of the Sept 13 power-sharing agreement before relations can be normalised after a 10-year stand-off. Eldred Masunungure, professor of political science at the University of Zimbabwe, said that given the new dispensation, he expected the EU and US to soften their stance.
"It is controversial to say, but I am one of those sympathetic to the use of sanctions as a whip," Prof Masunungure said. "Bad boys must be whipped, but given this new inclusive government, I expected positive engagement from the West." Zimbabweans had hoped the political deal would encourage western powers to release funds to reconstruct the economy, which has been in decline since Mr Mugabe authorised the seizure of farms from white farmers in 2000, redistributing them to landless blacks.
Inflation peaked at 230 million per cent in July - it is believed to many times higher now - and food shortages are endemic. Factories have closed under the weight of the economic crisis, pushing unemployment to more than 84 per cent, according to the CIA Factbook. An International Monetary Fund team said after visiting Zimbabwe late last month the multilateral lending agency will only consider releasing money after Harare pays US$125 million (Dh460m) in arrears to the Bretton Woods institution and implements sound economic policies.
Furthermore, a group of 17 "like-minded" key western donors that met on March 20 in Washington said they would first assess the performance of the transition government before deciding "to develop an appropriate framework for re-engagement", they said in a statement. Members of the group are the US, the UK, Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
John Robertson, of Robertson Economic Information Services, an independent think tank in Harare, said he is not surprised the administration has failed to earn immediate international support. "The rule of law is not being respected; farm invasions are going on; property rights are being violated and there is government extravagance. Nobody will take us seriously when we have a bigger cabinet than USA, Britain and Germany."
Fifty-nine ministers and deputies make up the unity government. They are entitled to at least $1,500 a month salary as well as perks that include the latest Mercedes Benz and 4x4 all-terrain vehicles, as well as free fuel and accommodation. At a recent summit in Swaziland, southern African leaders agreed to persuade the West to change its position on Zimbabwe. They committed themselves to raising money into a $8.3 billion reconstruction fund to help their neighbour.
Obediah Mazombwe, a lecturer at the Zimbabwe Open University, said he doubts the capability of southern African countries. "It is difficult to imagine that any of the other SADC countries, perhaps with the exception of Botswana, will be able to match, let alone surpass, South Africa's contribution," Prof Mazombwe wrote recently on Talkzimbabwe, a Zimbabwean online publication. "In the case of the more capable economies of South Africa and Botswana, the current global financial crisis is the major constraint. But for the rest of the countries in the region, their own poverty, abject in some instances, will simply make it impossible for them to spare anything for their crisis-stricken neighbour."
On April 4, the unity government adopted a 100-day economic revival plan that seeks to address human and property rights, reform media laws and re-engage the international community. But two days later, eight farmers were arrested, two of whom were in court this week on charges of resisting invasions of their properties. Mr Robertson said that even if Zimbabwe gets the reconstruction money, creditors will demand guarantees that the loans would be repaid. However, with production levels low - estimated by the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries at 10 per cent in January - donors are unlikely to be convinced.
"The production sector has to work before we can be a good credit risk," Mr Robertson said. He estimated that it will take at least three years for agriculture to recover and slightly longer for the manufacturing sector, which draws most of its raw materials from farms. An ex-president of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce, Luxon Zembe, said Zimbabwe went to the SADC summit in Swaziland expecting $2bn that the regional council of ministers of finance had approved earlier, but returned with a promise of only $30m, spread over three months.
"This means we went there needing an urgent injection of funds, but only got promises of commitment. Without money from somewhere, I don't know how the economy will recover," Mr Zembe said. tmpofu@thenational.ae
