What is a false flag operation?

The term describes the manufacture of an incident or situation to justify an aggressive, often military, action

Smoke rising in Kyiv, which mayor Vitali Klitschko says faces a 'difficult and dangerous moment' as Russian forces step up strikes. AFP

Pope Francis meets visitors holding the Ukrainian flag during his weekly general audience in the Vatican. AFP

An anti-war protester demonstrates against Russia's invasion of Ukraine in front of the Nato headquarters in Brussels. AFP

A poster in Saint Petersburg carries the letter Z, a symbol of support for the invasion, and reads: "We are proud of Russia! We are not ashamed!" AFP

Amid the Ukraine war, there's time for a seaside stroll in Odesa. Reuters

A child who fled from Ukraine to Belgium waits outside an immigration office in Brussels. EPA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy receives a standing ovation as he appears via videoconference to make an address to Canada's Parliament. AP

A woman walks with a bicycle next to a building damaged during the conflict in the separatist-controlled town of Volnovakha, Donetsk region. Reuters

A firefighter outside a destroyed apartment building in a residential area of Kyiv. AP

Ukrainian soldiers pay tribute to Col Valeriy Gudz, who was killed in battle against Russian troops, at a cemetery in the town of Boryspil. AP

Firefighters work to extinguish a fire in a housing block hit by shelling in the Sviatoshynsky district, in western Kyiv. AFP

Two people were killed as a series of powerful explosions rocked residential districts in Kyiv just hours before talks between Ukraine and Russia were set to resume. AFP

The Met Opera and Chorus performs during 'A Concert For Ukraine' in New York City. AFP

A worker welds metal at the Interpipe Steel plant in Dnipro, Ukraine. Hundreds of Interpipe’s 10,000 employees have joined the fight against Russia. AP

A woman is rescued by firefighters from her apartment in a burning building that was hit by artillery shells in Kyiv. AP

Rescuers work at a building damaged by an air strike, in central Kharkiv, Ukraine. Reuters

A woman who fled Ukraine to Belgium waits outside an immigration office, in Brussels. EPA

Cars stuck at the Irpin River bridge, as Russia unleashes a barrage of air strikes on cities across Ukraine. AFP

A firefighter looks at a section of a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile on a street in the separatist Donetsk region. The Russian military said 20 civilians were killed by a ballistic missile launched by the Ukrainian forces. AP

Musician Davide Martello plays a piano near the Ukrainian border in Medyka, Poland. More than 1.76 million people have crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border into Poland, the Polish Border Guard reported on March 14. EPA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, snaps a selfie with a wounded man during a visit at a military hospital after fighting in the Kyiv region.AFP

Ukrainian soldiers carry rocket-propelled grenades and sniper rifles as they walk towards the city of Irpin, north-west of Kyiv. AFP

Troops carry an elderly woman on a stretcher across a makeshift bridge as Ukrainians flee Irpin. AFP

Irina Moprezova, 54, stands in front of a house that was damaged by an air strike in Irpin. AFP

The flags of Russia and Ukraine are projected on the walls of Jerusalem's Old City, which a representative from the Jerusalem Municipality said is a show of support for diplomatic dialogue between the countries. Reuters

A person holds a Ukrainian flag during an anti-war demonstration at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany. Reuters

A Ukrainian soldier takes cover as people flee Irpin. AFP

Ukrainians shelter in an underground train station during the day in Kyiv. EPA

A Ukrainian serviceman walks carefully with his weapon in the city of Irpin, near Kyiv. AFP

Ukrainian people flee the city of Irpin, north-west of Kyiv. AFP

Ukrainian servicemen carry an elderly woman on a stretcher from the city of Irpin. AFP

A girl plays games on her tablet inside a subway carriage being used as a bomb shelter in Kyiv. AFP

A Ukrainian firefighter drags a hose inside a large food products storage facility which was destroyed by an air strike on the outskirts of Kyiv. AP

Ukrainian troops with a Javelin anti-tank missile on the front line in the northern Kyiv region. Reuters

A woman carries her dog during an evacuation in Irpin. Reuters

A Ukrainian woman takes shelter in a metro station during the day in Kyiv. EPA

A member of the Ukrainian armed forces on patrol in Irpin. Reuters

A Ukrainian fighter takes cover behind a car in the city of Irpin. AFP

Firefighters at work after air strikes hit residential buildings in Chernihiv, northern Ukraine. AFP

A man wounded in an air strike is helped by medical staff in Novoiavorivsk, western Ukraine. Getty

The ruins of the Ukraine Hotel after recent shelling in Chernihiv. EPA

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Almost four weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nato said it is concerned that Russia will use chemical weapons in a "false flag" attack.

Warnings about Russia's possible use of a false flag operation were sounded before the war even began – the term itself traces its origins back to the Second World War.

"We are concerned Moscow could stage a false flag operation in Ukraine, possibly with chemical weapons," Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday.

A pretext to attack

On February 17, a week before the invasion, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the United Nations Security Council that Russia had plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack on Ukraine.

This, he said, could be done through a false flag attack whereby one party, in this case Russia, would carry out an attack to make it look as if Ukraine was the perpetrator. The faked attack could give Russia the casus belli, or case for war against Ukraine.

Mr Blinken said this could come in the form of a "fabricated, so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia", or the discovery of a mass grave.

More alarmingly, he said, the false flag could come in the form of a very real chemical attack against Russian civilians.

Now, weeks after Russia moved militarily against Ukraine, Nato is making the same warnings.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said last week that such a move would be "straight out of the Russian playbook".

“They start saying that there are chemical weapons that are being stored by their opponents or by the Americans, so that when they themselves deploy chemical weapons – as I fear they may – they have a fake story ready to go," he said. Mr Johnson appears to have been referring to incidents in Syria where the Russians warned that Syrian rebel groups were about to use chemical weapons, only for Russia's Syrian allies to use them first in populated areas, killing thousands of civilians.

Origins

In 1939, Nazi operatives dressed as Polish soldiers stormed the German Gleiwitz radio tower on the border with Poland. In what was a classic false flag operation, the Nazis broadcast an anti-German message and even killed a farmer known for being a Polish sympathiser. German soldiers also shot Jewish political prisoners dressed in Polish uniforms in order to fake the scene of a clash.

This, with other incidents, set the scene for an attack on Poland that began the day after the Gleiwitz attack.

In Japan, eight years before Gleiwitz, Japanese military personnel detonated dynamite near a Japanese-owned railway line. The Imperial Japanese Army accused Chinese saboteurs of carrying out the deed. Shortly after, Japan invaded Manchuria, in response to the railway incident.

The term itself originates from the 16th century, when pirates flew flags of friendly nations to deceive their enemies, allowing them to approach closer than they would have otherwise done.

Russia-Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, together known as Donbas, an independent region the night before he launched attacks on Ukraine.

But in the run-up to this fateful announcement, the Russian government broadcast a slew of media campaigns that painted Ukraine as planning for war.

Social media sleuths pored over the videos released and found several inconsistencies that discredited the Russian claims of Ukrainian aggression on Donbas.

A Twitter thread by Live Universal Awareness Map (Liveuamap), a global news and information site to track crises in real time, detailed numerous occasions of such false claims by the Russian government in the lead-up to February 24, the day of the invasion.

False flag operations by any side in the run-up to, or during war, could have momentous effects for decades to come and could influence the willingness of other countries to use similar methods of deception.

But any armies attempting to conduct false flag operations would be wise to consider international law. The Geneva Convention, which governs the conduct of armies in wartime, says that operations where one side pretends to be their adversary and thereby sows confusion are prohibited.

“It is prohibited to make use of the flags or military emblems, insignia or uniforms of adverse parties while engaging in attacks," the convention says. In a separate article, it says that this also applies to using the uniforms and symbols of "neutral or other states not parties to the conflict".

The convention says countries doing this may do so "to shield, favour, protect or impede military operations”.