The Wagner Group convinced African countries that their mercenaries could introduce stability, but their brutal campaign has created serious long-term problems and driven angry populations into the arms of ISIS, leading analysts told The National.
African leaders' confidence in the group will also have been shaken after it trained bodyguards and military personnel to prevent coups, while staging a mutiny in Russia on Saturday.
Wagner’s brutal tactics have already driven people across the Sahel region into the arms of extremists with their tactic of using violent suppression as a short-term fix for security.
This has led to ISIS-affiliated extremists intensifying their campaigns with a surge in terrorist attacks in Niger, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic and Mali, where the capital Bamako could soon be encircled.
“Wagner won the propaganda battle that ‘we can do it more effectively and more quickly’, but they have created serious long-term problems,” said Jasmine Opperman, a former analyst for South African intelligence.
Wagner’s actions further delegitimise – in the eyes of the population – the governments they are purportedly there to protect, she added.
Led by the recently exiled Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group is in the region for economic gain, using its troops to secure mines with little interest in long-term stability.
But after Mr Prigozhin’s failed mutiny on Saturday, it is understood that questions are being asked by Wagner’s African clients over the mercenary group's utility.
The fall-out from the failed coup could also affect Russia’s foreign policy objectives, because it uses Wagner as an arms’ length body to exert influence on African politicians that led to large numbers failing to condemn its invasion of Ukraine.
Wagner’s malign influence has also led to the removal of western or UN counter-terrorism troops, severely undermining internal security.
The group's self-interest-driven ethos has led to a substantial increase in the security issues they were meant to resolve, destabilising countries and leaving them open to ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates.
Wagner terror
An estimated 5,000 Wagner troops, including former Russian soldiers, convicts and foreign fighters, are in five African states, the majority in Mali and Central Africa Republic with a smaller presence in seven other countries, as well as in Syria.
Wagner’s counter-terrorism strategy is rudimentary, briefly effective and with a significant downside. Working alongside government forces trained in their ruthless tactics, including torture techniques, they have committed atrocities in villages in a "campaign of terror”, according to The Sentry, a US-based investigative organisation.
The main objective is to secure routes into and around the mines in order to extract as much wealth as they can.
“The impact has been highly detrimental to the counterinsurgency effort,” said Ben Manzin, the Africa analyst for Sibylline intelligence group. “Extremists tell communities that the state is not your friend, only we will defend you and now they have absolute proof of that.”
Their actions “only boosts recruitment to terrorists” and it was misguided to buy into the short-term optimism their tactics bring, he added.
Colin Clarke, of the Soufan Centre think tank, said Wagner’s presence was creating conditions for extremists to thrive.
“This has given both [ISIS] and Al Qaeda affiliates greater freedom of manoeuvre and space to operate,” he said.
Embedded violence
The junta that took over Mali in 2021 expelled French forces, then brought in Wagner. Since then there have been accusations of atrocities, executions and torture with 2,000 civilians killed in the last year compared with 500 in 2020.
The violence has acted as a recruiting sergeant for Islamic State Sahel Province and the Al Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin
“The problem is, by using violence, you are just embedding violence, you are not addressing the root causes,” Ms Opperman said.
Wagner’s presence a creates a false expectation on “presenting a solution beyond the western confines” on tackling counterterrorism.
As a result of the group's actions in Mali the UN’s operations are now “hugely constrained”, Mr Manzin said.
“If they want to go anywhere they need permission first, and they will likely be denied that and so they can't respond to threats or conduct operations.”
Wagner alternatives
The problem for the African regimes is that, having spurned western support and adopting an anti-colonialist stance, particularly against France, what alternatives do they have?
Wagner has proven a quick fix without much thought given to the consequences.
That could now profoundly change if African leaders view Russia as an emasculated power and no longer want to be associated with Wagner’s tarnished reputation.
Mali in particular will be re-examining its relationship after the junta there ordered the 13,000 UN peacekeepers out last August with Wagner coming in, Mr Manzin said.
There has been little heard from Russia’s African friends since the mutiny, with a view that Moscow’s influence extends only for as long as its allies believe it is powerful enough to assist them.
Western response
While the West is hurriedly dusting down its plans for a transition of power in Moscow, it is also considering the effect on the Sahel.
Britain’s foreign secretary told parliament on Monday that he had spoken to African leaders with a Wagner presence stating that the mercenaries “are not people that can be trusted in any country whose defence relies upon them”, adding with a sting, “as the Russians have now discovered”.
James Cleverly suggested those states using Wagner would find their security “inherently vulnerable” and gave an interesting insight into the West’s new thinking. He said Britain would work closely with its allies “to ensure those African countries are safe without the need for mercenary forces”.
Tampering with elections is also part of Wagner’s armoury. Mr Prigozhin’s online trollers at his Internet Research Agency have worked in Ghana and Nigeria after their success in widening America’s divisions during the 2016 presidential election.
Wagner’s disinformation operation has also stirred up colonialist anti-western feelings among locals, although this may have frayed following the mutiny.
The West can again seek influence by providing military training, advice, and intelligence sharing, particularly from the Global Alliance Against the Islamic State, Ms Opperman said.
“The West needs to gain a far more assertive voice in directing current counterterrorism,” she added.
But she also warned of dangers if Wagner departs without security forces replacing them. “The extremists need chaos and moments of frustration. Africa is providing them that with big doors opening on a daily basis.”
The West needed to keep the “moral high ground” but also to develop a strategy to address the instability “because this will get worse and worse”, said Benjamin Petrini, an expert on conflict security at the IISS think tank.
Wagner spurned
Burkina Faso suffered 3,000 deaths from terrorists in the first three months of this year compared with 4,200 last year.
While its government allegedly has a handful of Wagner advisers, the Moscow mutiny makes it highly unlikely that the country, which has large tracts overrun by extremists, will invite Wagner in.
“Burkina Faso realises that this is not the strategy they want to pursue,” Dr Petrini said. “They're going for a domestic strategy of mobilising the youth and mobilising internally to fight against violent extremist groups. They do recognise there is a geopolitical element that inviting in the Wagner group would completely take them away from western relations, incentives and ties.”
Wagner’s presence, along with other issues such as enforced migration caused by climate change alongside rising food prices from the Ukraine war, has led to Al Qaeda being provided “with the ideal environment to position itself within local communities”, Ms Opperman said. “For those communities immediate security is a dire need in a stateless region.”
But now Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera may well be looking more anxiously over his shoulder because Wagner trained his personal protection officers and CAR’s army against coups.
Saturday’s events, Russia’s Africa clients might reflect, was not a magnificent advertisement for an outfit taking their riches to prevent internal strife.
