Uncertainty in Egypt


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Morsi's military shake-up is seen by some as bad déjà vu, by others as a tour de force

By his bold decision on Sunday to retire top army and intelligence officers, the still-fresh Egyptian president, Mohammed Morsi, managed to befuddle observers in Egypt, the region and the wider international community, wrote Tariq Al Homayed, editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al Awsat, in a column titled What has just happened in Egypt?

"Some view Mr Morsi's decision as a political coup against the army; others now think that Egypt is completely in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood; and there are those who maintain that Mr Morsi has managed to put an end to military rule in the country," the editor said.

Mr Morsi's decision affected Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, the defence minister and head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which until the presidential election was the de facto ruler of Egypt. The chief of staff of the armed forces, Sami Anan, was also made to retire.

"There are even the 'gloating' ones," the editor went on, "who want Gen Tantawi and Gen Anan to be prosecuted, just like the unseated president Hosni Mubarak before them."

Yet, not too many observers are pointing to an instance of bad déjà vu unfolding - a president "swallowing one institution after another at a record speed", the editor said. Remember Hosni Mubarak?

Egypt still doesn't have a constitution and its parliament has been dissolved. In the absence of both, this president holds "even more power than the former president, Mr Mubarak, in his heyday", the editor argued.

In reality, only the judiciary has still escaped Mr Morsi's grip, he added. And how long that would last is an open question.

For his part, commentator Mazen Hammad wrote a column titled Morsi's coup in yesterday's edition of the Qatari newspaper Al Watan, arguing that Mr Morsi showed the world "he wasn't the lame-duck president his enemies - and the remnants of the old regime - tried to portray him to be".

By sidelining the strongmen of the army, Mr Morsi "crossed the right T's and dumped the Mubarak era into the skip of history", he added.

In the Middle East, a reliable gauge for the soundness of a political move is the level of Israel's irritation because of it, the columnist said.

"Citing a senior official, Israeli radio said Israel was deeply concerned about Mr Morsi's decision to reshuffle the top ranks of the army."

Tahrir Square in Cairo is an even more reliable measure. "Thousands rallied in Tahrir Square chanting 'The people back the president's decisions', in a clear reference to Mr Morsi's recent move."

Whether Mr Morsi is an "Islamist" or a "Brotherhood guy" is beside the point, the columnist pointed out. "All we care about is that the president of Egypt treat all Egyptians in the same way."

Mecca summit judged unlikely to yield results

Realistically, the extraordinary summit in Mecca, which started yesterday, will not end better than other conferences formerly held in Mecca, argued Abdel Bari Atwan in the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi.

There are two main issues on the agenda for the conference: the escalating 18-month-long Syrian crisis, and the impending Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, the writer noted.

The conference is supposed to succeed, although the UN, and other bodies and meetings, have failed. The good intentions, the holy place and the positive timing are not enough.

"How a solution to the Syrian crisis could be achieved while its most active players are not invited?" he asked. The Syrian government was not invited, neither was the Iraqi government, while the Iranian president attended after a long hesitation.

It is also a paradox not to invite the Syrian opposition which several countries see as an alternative to the regime, he said.

The Iranian issue is as serious as the Syrian crisis, and might turn into a more fierce war amid Israeli plans to attack Iranian nuclear infrastructure. About half the members of the summit, in which Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is taking part, will be sided against his country in the event of a war on Iran.

Frequent conferences in Mecca signal escalating crises in the Islamic world, he concluded.

Unable to free Golan, Bashar kills Syrians

Instead of using his troops to liberate the Golan Heights, Syrian president Bashar Al Assad sent his soldiers to kill his own people, Al Azab Al Tayyib Al Taher wrote in the Qatari newspaper Al Sharq.

Mr Assad has not responded to any Arab or international initiative to end the crisis which he directly sparked with his deadly crackdown on protesters.

"When I saw massive troops deployed across Syrian cities, I wondered why has the Syrian Army not used the firepower we have seen for 18 months against the real enemy who occupies the Golan Heights?"

The force invested in killing the Syrian people is sufficient to free the Golan Heights without any assistance from Arab countries, he said. Assad regime troops are fighting the people with the latest techniques, but cannot show the same courage to liberate the Golan, which has been occupied by Israel for almost 50 years.

But Mr Assad cannot abort the revolution, which erupted to topple a corrupt regime whose barbarity has conclusively manifested itself in systematic killing carried out on a daily basis, he went on.

Mr Assad will continue to kill until he is killed in the manner of Muammar Qaddafi, gets arrested and sentenced to death, or escapes - which is unlikely, since he is surrounded by rebels.

* Digest compiled by The Translation Desk

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”