A year ago, footage captured on a mobile phone of a young woman's dying moments spread around the globe and came to symbolise the tragedy of the unprecedented public uprising that followed Iran's disputed presidential election. Neda Agha-Soltan, a 27-year-old graduate of Islamic theology and philosophy from Tehran's Azad University, was standing by her car on her way to a street protest when she was shot. She was seen lying on the road, bleeding from her nose and mouth. She died on the way to hospital.
Her death shocked the world and became a rallying point for Iran's reformist opposition protesting at what they saw as a rigged result. That vote, taken a year ago today, sparked mass street protests that shook the Islamic republic to the core. What followed was a crackdown against protesters that lasted months. Now, with hardliners aggressively back in charge, it is impossible to imagine a repeat of public dissent on any similar scale.
The election aftermath severely tarnished the Islamic republic's image and left deep, unprecedented internal rifts, both within the political and clerical establishments as well as between the government and the people. The two main leaders of Iran's opposition "green" movement on Thursday called off plans for a peaceful, nationwide protest today to mark the "fraudulent" re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a year ago.
With no government permit, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi feared for the lives "of defenceless and innocent people" in any crackdown by the government. Nevertheless, many opposition supporters, who risk beatings, arrest and worse, still seemingly appear intent on protesting today. "We never asked for the leaders [of the green movement] to tell us when to turn out on the streets," said one young man, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Night time chants of "Allahu Akbar" - the defiant opposition rallying cry of a year ago - rose again from Tehran's rooftops this week. The opposition may no longer be able to take to the streets in great numbers, and many of its followers are demoralised and disenchanted. But the green movement "is alive" and cannot be blocked by the "illegitimate government", Mr Mousavi and Mr Karrubi - both of whom ran against Mr Ahmadinejad last year - said in a joint statement aimed at boosting opposition morale.
The Iranian regime has an iron grip on the forces of repression but is jittery and in no mood to brook domestic dissent while it faces growing tensions with the West over Iran's nuclear programme. Tehran was slapped with a fourth round of UN sanctions this week. Security has been visibly beefed up in recent days across the tense Iranian capital. Many Iranians, however, are simply too scared to protest. "My friends who took part in previous rallies are in jail or banned from pursuing their studies," said Reza, 24, a physics student in Shiraz. "I cannot endanger my future by taking part in an anti-government rally."
Most analysts agree with Mr Mousavi and Mr Karrubi that the green movement is far from finished. The regime has not snuffed out the burning desire for democratic change and justice. The Iranian authorities know "very, very well that even if they have managed tactically to stop the green movement on the streets, they have not moved an inch towards feeding the people's desire for democracy and civil rights ? the desire is there, as strong as it's ever been," said Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars.
The calm on Iranian streets in recent months is deceptive. Politically and socially, Iran remains convulsed by the events of a year ago. Everything has changed, yet nothing has been resolved. "The election crisis is far-reaching ? it is like an open wound in the body politic and whether the bleeding is great or small, it is still bleeding," said Professor Ali Ansari, the director of the Institute of Iranian studies at St Andrews University in Scotland.
"The opposition is battered and disorganised but this does not mean that the government is strong," he said in an interview. Even Iran's conservatives "are very divided and feel that the government is going down a dead end." Mr Mousavi and Mr Karrrubi said in their statement: "Even the simple announcement of an intention to demonstrate made the repressors shiver from fear and prompted a wide-scale and comprehensive security and police mobilisation."
Both men, pillars of the 1979 Islamic revolution, are committed to gradual and peaceful reform aimed at returning the Islamic republic to the early ideals of the revolution. By refusing to give them an inch - and constantly vilifying them - the regime is shutting the door on peaceful, evolutionary change, analysts say. Resorting to mass arrests, televised show trials, long prison terms and even executions, the authorities have smashed the opposition green movement's ability to organise, and intimidated the populace. At least 80 people were killed in post-election street clashes, opposition groups say. Scores of political detainees remain in jail, among them at least six on death row, convicted of waging war against God. The internet is policed and most reformist newspapers closed down. Key aides of the opposition's leaders are behind bars.
The Iranian government has long said it has crushed what it portrays as a western-backed "sedition", although that claim is undermined by the huge security operations it needs to mount before any expected protest rallies. In revealing remarks on Thursday, the head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, said the eight-month-long post-election protests had posed a "much more dangerous threat" to the Islamic republic than the devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s.
For Mr Mousavi and Mr Karrubi, the pro-democracy struggle is a marathon, not a sprint. The former, who millions of Iranians believe was the real winner of last year's election, declared in March that this would be the "year of patience and perseverance". Accepting that mass street protests were no longer feasible, the two opposition leaders called on people to follow up their "rightful demands" through "less costly and more effective methods".
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote: "If the green movement is to mount a serious challenge to the government, it must incorporate support from bazaar merchants, workers in major industries, transportation unions, and government workers. Sustained strikes by these groups would bring the country's economy to a halt," There are many different perspectives within the green movement on how change can be achieved.
"There are people who believe the system isn't reformable, and others who believe the best way is viewing this as a civil rights movement working through reform and gradual change," Mr Parsi said in an interview. "I'd say the majority is in the latter camp [of Mr Mousavi and Mr Karrubi], but the former are not insignificant either." The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has managed to retain absolute power. But he is heavily reliant on the Revolutionary Guards, whose loyalty has been secured with growing political clout and lavish government contracts.
The ayatollah's legitimacy remains severely compromised by his swift endorsement of Mr Ahmadinejad's purported election victory a year ago. The supreme leader is meant to be a neutral, lofty guide and arbiter who only enters the political fray to resolve disputes. Several senior clerics have publicly lambasted the government in the past year, most memorably the late dissident grand ayatollah, Hussein Ali Montazeri, who proclaimed: "This regime is neither Islamic nor a republic."
That charge stings the regime, which has always trumpeted as a great success - and example to the wider region - Iran's blend of theocracy and democracy. Western commentators who predicted a knock-out blow for the regime or the opposition on key anniversaries over the past year have proved short-sighted. The struggle within Iran is likely to be a long one. "The reformist turned opposition groups may have been pushed out of the political process, at least temporarily," said Farideh Farhi, a renowned Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. But, she added in an interview, "their concerns and grievances remain an integral part of the political discourse, making the coming year as critical as the last."
@Email:mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
