AT THE GREENWICH PRIME MERIDIAN, ENGLAND // Is it possible for a clock to be too precise?
The debate has been raging as officials prepare to mark the end of 2008 by tacking a second onto the clock today, ever-so-slightly slowing the arrival of the new year.
The "leap second" has been used sporadically at the Royal Observatory at Greenwich since 1972 to account for the minute slowing of the Earth's rotation - tweaks that have kept Greenwich Mean Time the internationally agreed time standard.
But some scientists say GMT should be replaced by International Atomic Time - computed outside Paris - because new technologies have allowed atomic time to tick away with down-to-the-nanosecond accuracy.
Opponents say atomic time's very precision poses a problem. A strict measurement, they say, would change our very notion of time forever, as atomic clocks would one day outpace the familiar cycle of sunrise and sunset. The time warp would not be noticeable for generations, but within a millennium, noon - the hour associated with the Sun's highest point in the sky - would occur around 1pm.
In tens of thousands of years, the Sun would be days behind the human calendar. That bothers people such as Steve Allen, an analyst at the University of California's Lick Observatory. "I think (our descendants) will curse us less if we choose to keep the clock reading near 12:00 when the Sun is highest in the sky," he said.
Atomic time advocates argue that leap seconds are onerous because they are unpredictable. Since the exact speed of the Earth's rotation cannot be plotted out in advance, they are added as needed. Sometimes, like this year, they are added on Dec 31; sometimes they are inserted at the end of June 30.
Those willy-nilly fixes can trip up time-sensitive software, particularly in Asia, where the extra second is added in the middle of the day. Critics say everything from satellite navigation to power transmission and cellular communication is vulnerable to problems stemming from programmes ignoring the extra second or adding it at different times.
When the extra second is added, the National Institute of Standards and Technology in Boulder, Colorado, which provides the time standard for computers and appliances across the US, will probably be busy fixing bugs starting at 5pm Mountain Time, predicted Judah Levine, a physicist at the institute's Time and Frequency Division.
"There's always somebody who doesn't get it right," Mr Levine said. "It never fails."
Britons seemed less concerned about the remote prospect of having tea at 3am than the notion of leaving a France-based body in control of the world's time.
"I think there's some kind of historical pride we might feel in Britain about Greenwich being the point around which time is measured," the telecoms executive Stephen Mallinson said as he waited to board a Eurostar train for Paris at London's St. Pancras Station. "But in practice, does it make a difference? No."
At the Royal Observatory, Susie Holt, a homemaker, was adjusting her wristwatch to match the digital display above the meridian. She said it would be a pity if GMT were made obsolete. Her daughter, 15-year-old Kirsty, was more forthright.
"We don't want the French to control time," she said. "They might get it wrong or something."
Meanwhile, Elisa Felicitas Arias, a scientist at the International Bureau of Weights and Measures, which computes atomic time at a facility outside Paris, has been busy lobbying to scrap the leap seconds that have given the 17th-century Royal Observatory pride of place. "GMT is out of date," she sniffed.
She said she has been garnering considerable support, with the International Telecommunications Union - the arbiter of international time standards - considering a vote on a switch as early as next year, with a 2018 target to implement it. The US, France, Germany, Italy and Japan were all on board, she said.
But David Rooney, the Royal Observatory's curator of time, defended leap seconds, saying they give everyone "the best of both worlds". The arrangement, he said, allows satellites, physicists and high-frequency traders to benefit from the accuracy of atomic time while keeping our clocks consistent with the position of the Sun in the sky - and with GMT.
The American Astronomical Society is officially neutral on the proposal to switch to atomic time, which is calculated based on readings from more than 200 atomic clocks maintained across the world.
Perhaps predictably, Britain's Royal Astronomical Society has come out in favour of conserving leap seconds. While the society spokesman Robert Massey said star-watchers could cope no matter what happened, he urged caution on such an important change.
"It's not just a matter for the telecommunications industry to tell everybody to get rid of the leap second," Mr Massey said. "It would be a big cultural change at the very least. Abandoning the connection between time and solar time is really a big shift."
* AP
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1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
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November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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