Related: Covid-19: are two masks better than one?
Record low numbers of seasonal influenza have been recorded across the UAE, in a medical phenomenon noted by doctors around the world.
A perfect storm of mandatory face masks, improved hygiene and distance learning in schools have contributed to clinics seeing a fraction of the usual respiratory infections this winter.
Typically, doctors would expect to treat up to 40 cases of flu each at this time of year.
It is incredible, I have never seen this in Dubai before
Dr Fadi Baladi, medical director at hospital group Burjeel, said he did not record a single case throughout January at his Reem Island surgery.
“We were all noticing a significant drop off in flu cases across our clinics this winter and that is down to two factors,” he said.
“More people took the flu shot because of the pandemic scare and face masks have been doing magical things.
“I have not seen a single case of flu this year in my practice – usually it is flooding our centres.”
Clinics across the country reported a significant spike in demand for the flu shot at the onset of influenza season in October.
That was attributed, in part, to wrong assumptions that it could offer protection against Covid-19.
While both viruses offer similar symptoms of fever and fatigue, each has its own distinct tell-tale signs, making it relatively straightforward for doctors to make an on-the-spot diagnosis.
When there is doubt, a nasal swab is taken for analysis to determine the presence of either Influenza A or B, or other viral infections.
Yet the number of swabs required this winter were also considerably down on previous years.
“We can make 80 to 90 per cent of diagnoses in the clinic for flu, so it is very easy to spot the difference,” said Dr Baladi.
“I can tell by the flu swabs, similar to the Covid-19 tests, that give instant results in the office.
“We usually order every week but we have not had to order any replacement stocks yet this winter.”
The low numbers of flu this year were forecast by medics as early as August.
In early 2020, fewer flu cases recorded in the southern hemisphere signalled this year’s season may not be as severe as some feared.
Australia recorded just 36 flu-related deaths from January to June, down from 430 the previous year, while Chile recorded almost 19,000 fewer seasonal respiratory infections.
Plunging cases of influenza brought relief to stretched health authorities across the world, as the pandemic continues to drain resources.
Data from the UK’s Royal College of General Practitioners research and surveillance centre said flu cases had dropped 95 per cent this year, when compared with the five-year average.
It is a similar pattern globally, with only Cambodia, Bangladesh and the Ivory Coast reporting any significant spread of influenza. Each country also recorded relatively low numbers of coronavirus.
While there have been no Covid-19 deaths from Cambodia’s 466 cases, the virus has claimed 154 lives in the Ivory Coast from 28,399 infections, out of its population of 25.7 million.
Although flu has also taken hold in Bangladesh, the country has reported just 8,127 Covid-19 deaths from its population of 163 million.
Dr Fatemeh Aghanasiri, a GP at the Aster Clinic in Arabian Ranches, was staggered by the "face mask effect” on combatting seasonal flu in the UAE.
“It is incredible, I have never seen this in Dubai before,” she said.
“From September onwards once the schools reopen we begin to see a lot of cases of flu, usually up to 40 cases every day.
“This year that has not happened. The numbers are extremely low for both upper and lower respiratory infections.”
Rates of bronchitis also appear to be in decline. Dr Aghanasiri would commonly expect to treat between 10 to 15 patients each winter in her clinic, but so far has come across a just a handful of cases.
“The flu virus is still there, but it is not being passed around like before and that is largely down to face masks,” said Dr Aghanasiri.
“People are learning how effective they are and now understand how they can protect against catching any viral infection.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
