UAE weather: Rainy season begins this month


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Get ready to turn off the air conditioning and pull out your umbrella – the Gulf’s rainy season is about to begin.

According to the ancient Drour calendar, cool autumn weather will begin in October. The 365-day calendar measures the year in 10-day cycles, or micro seasons, which are known in Arabic as dir.

The almanac has four seasons, with 100 days allocated to autumn, winter and summer, followed by a 60-day season of intense heat that ends in late August.

Five so-called stolen days are added for turbulent weather.

The season of intense heat ended when the star Suhail appeared in the sky on August 24, and good weather was expected to begin between October 23 to November 2.

Traditionally, this is when the palm pollination and camel grazing season begins.

“With winter coming into the picture, we have the very prominent constellations of Orion, Taurus, the Big Dog and the Little Dog, and the star Suhail in the night sky,” said Hasan Al Hariri, a specialist in the star-based almanac and chief executive of the Dubai Astronomy Group.

“People are very much waiting for two main seasons, the heat and the winter. They are not looking to the stars for the sake of the weather but for activities, to know what to do.”

October is also the season for the annual migration to mountain villages, where tribes would go in winter after spending summer in date orchards.

The mountains were only inhabited in the winter, when rain could fill cisterns. Hardy families who eked out a living with livestock and growing crops on terraced farms stayed until the weather began to warm again in April or May and the cisterns emptied.

However, farmers reported that the centuries-old almanac has become less reliable in recent years because of climate change.

“As you may notice, the celebrations happen in winter, it’s a time to plant new palm trees and begin a new season,” said Mr Al Hariri. “In this section of the calendar, there’s a drop of pressure, winds and lashes of rain.”

The UAE has been hit by heavy rains this month already, with flash floods sweeping the Northern Emirates last weekend and in late September.

Seasonal shifts in October can bring wind, turbulent weather and swinging temperatures.

The barometer hit 41°C in Sweihan, Abu Dhabi, on Sunday, while Ras Al Khaimah recorded the coldest spot in the country with a temperature of 19°C on Jebel Jais on Monday morning.

With the grey skies in prospect, get ready to hear Mehad Hamad's classic song Rain Rain blasting from car stereos and prepare for montages of rain-soaked deserts on your social media feeds.

After a long, stifling summer the season for camping, hiking and cool desert nights has begun.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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