Bush economic bailout plan faces harsh questions


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The Bush administration's proposed $700 billion plan to bailout US financial companies faced harsh questioning on Tuesday as the Treasury secretary Henry Paulson and the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke were grilled by the Senate Banking Committee for five hours. Several senators have objected to the flimsiness of the plan, and to the fact that so much power would be put into the hands of Mr Paulson, reported the New York Times. "The lawmakers objected strenuously to the broad authority Mr Paulson was requesting, the lack of additional steps to help homeowners avoid foreclosure and the absence of any demands for ownership stakes in the banks that would be helped," wrote the Times. "To help win some votes, Mr Paulson agreed to speak to House Republicans on Wednesday morning, after which he and Mr Bernanke must give a repeat performance before the House Financial Services Committee, an audience that could prove even more hostile than the Senate banking panel. "....lawmakers were waiting to see a final version of the plan. Democrats were pushing hardest for provisions that would require the Treasury to obtain warrants that would convert into equity in the companies helped and limits on the salaries of executives whose firms participate in the bailout. "Reflecting their frustration, and perhaps the narrowness of their options, the lawmakers peppered Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke with questions ranging from whether the rescue would work to whether it would end up bailing out Wall Street on the backs of taxpayers. "'I get some sense that we're flying by the seat of our pants,' said Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey. 'You want to come in strong and have the cavalry be there, but you're not quite sure what the cavalry does once it arrives. And that's part of my concern.' "Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, proposed limiting financing to $150bn, and budgeting more in three months, after its progress could be assessed." A few senators proposed that the government should be given stakes in various financial companies that it agrees to help as a way to protect the interests of taxpayers. "Several senators said they thought the best way to protect taxpayers was by requiring the Treasury Department to take warrants, which are instruments that are convertible into shares, as it did in its rescue of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the American International Group," reported the Times. "But Mr Paulson said that could limit participation in the program, especially if companies decided to hold onto their troubled assets rather than cede some control to the Treasury Department. If that happened, Mr Paulson said, the programme would not do enough to get the market moving again. "But he and Mr Bernanke did not do much to clear up confusion about how the bailout plan would work in practice. Mr Bernanke, an economist, gave a tutorial on valuation of assets, distinguishing between those sold at fire-sale prices ? what a portfolio would sell for if the cash were needed immediately ? and those at hold-to-maturity prices, or what the same portfolio would fetch on the assumption that the underlying debt would be repaid. "To unclog the market, he said, the government would have to determine the hold-to-maturity price for assets with no other buyers. "Just as you sell a painting at Sotheby's, until you sell it, nobody knows what it is worth," Mr Bernanke said. "He described a system of reverse auctions, in which the Treasury would name a price it was willing to pay, and the banks would decide whether to sell. Mr Paulson said the government would also use other methods, depending on the assets involved, and was open to experimentation. Both officials pleaded with Congress not to tie the government's hands by writing any particular sales method into the bailout legislation." The Washington Post reported on alternative solutions to the $700 bn bailout plan, quoting leading economists who said that there were a host of alternatives that could reduce the liability of taxpayers and address the crisis more rapidly. "One approach seeks to reduce taxpayers' liability by offering collateral-backed loans to troubled banks, leaving them to work out their own solutions. Another idea is to have the government set up a profit-driven investment fund with the aim of infusing the financial system with cash without taking on bad debt. Still others suggest radically different tactics of directly helping homeowners by reducing mortgage principal or bolstering banks by suspending capital gains taxes," said the Post. Meanwhile, the New York Times says the Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened fraud investigations of four of the largest corporations at the center of the financial turmoil, namely Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and the American International Group. "A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly, said it was 'logical to assume' that those four companies would come under investigation because of the many questions surrounding their recent collapse," reported the Times. "FBI officials said Tuesday that the total number of corporate fraud investigations at the bureau was 26, an increase from the 24 open cases cited just a week ago by Robert S. Mueller III, director of the FBI. That number stood at 21 as recently as July, but the bureau has not named most of the targets. "Mr Mueller told members of the Senate Judiciary Committee that the major corporate investigations are aimed at companies that 'may have engaged in misstatements in the course of what transpired during this financial crisis.' "He added that 'the FBI will pursue these cases as far up the corporate chain as is necessary to ensure that those responsible receive the justice they deserve.'"

A new Washington Post-ABC News national poll finds that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leading Republican candidate John McCain by 52 per cent to 43 per cent because of the recent turmoil in the financial sector and uncertainty about the future of the US economy. "Just nine per cent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 per cent said the country is heading in the right direction, equalling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973," reported the Post. "More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 per cent to 43 per cent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 per cent and Obama at 47 per cent." But Obama better get on the same page as his vice presidential candidate Sen Joe Biden, who according to the New York Daily News has been told to shut up after publicly contradicting Obama on the AIG bailout. "Barack Obama slapped his loose-lipped running mate on Tuesday, chastising Joe Biden for speaking too fast and contradicting him on one of the massive financial bailouts," said the Daily News. "Biden, a Delaware senator, declared last week the federal government should not have floated the American International Group an $85bn lifeline. "Obama said the feds had no choice and hit John McCain for opposing the AIG rescue one day, then backing it the next. "Tuesday, Obama had to deal with fallout from Biden doing a similar dipsy-doodle, first denouncing then agreeing with McCain. "'I think that, in that situation, I think Joe should have waited as well,' Obama said on NBC's Today show." Meanwhile, the two presidential candidates are undergoing intensive preparations for their first televised debate on Friday, which analysts predict will be one of the most watched debates in US history. "Obama has abandoned all but a handful of campaign events to devote almost four days to training for the clash, setting up a debates camp in Tampa, Florida. His performances on a mock-up of the debate stage are being videoed and scrutinised for his answers and facial expressions. McCain is fitting rehearsals in between an almost full campaign programme," reported The Guardian. "The Obama-McCain clash, which is expected to attract the biggest-ever US television audience for a political debate, is to be held at the symbolically resonant University of Mississippi, once a bastion of racism and scene of violent clashes during the civil rights campaign of the 1960s. "Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said: 'I do not think any debate has ever been more important ... There is a huge amount at stake in this.' "Stan Greenberg, a pollster for the Democrats, said presidential debates had a big impact, with the potential for all the campaign work and poll leads of the preceding months to be 'wiped out in seconds'."

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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