Tim Fox

Not only is the market probably wrong in assuming that the Fed will stay on the sidelines in the second half of the year, but the Fed itself is probably even too relaxed about where rates are likely to go.

As the largest and most liquid market in the Mena region, there is understandably significant interest in and excitement about this event, and for economic reasons the decisions is also timely.

Regionally, the oil price decline in January probably also affected sentiment, despite the best efforts of policymakers to reassure that government spending would continue regardless.

This downgrade occurred when oil prices were already heading higher, which they have done since the beginning of April.

Hopes have been raised that Egypt and Iran could soon start to see a surge of foreign investment inflows.

Attention will now turn towards a possible rate hike in September.

Its fall has been more or less a consistent one since the summer of last year, with anticipation of the end of quantitative easing in the US buoying the dollar in the second half of last year.

Over the past few weeks there has been greater divergence of opinion among analysts, with some forecasting fresh lows for the year while others have called for a return to $100.

Markets have appeared to become somewhat inured to the likelihood of a Greek exit in recent days, however, reassured by the fact that financial exposures to Greece have been reduced and even ring fenced in the past few years.

Policymakers’ views, once a source of healthy debate and discussion, have turned into an echo chamber, and world markets are poorer for it.

In many ways the outlook for the Mena region depends on one's perspective

The US Federal Reserve stunned markets by maintaining its $85 billion of QE asset purchases per month, confounding consensus estimates that monetary policy normalisation would begin this month.

The potential issues surrounding US shale are real and the risks could be fairly serious depending on how they are handled, but the most sensible approach might well be to remain relatively relaxed as Opec currently appears to be.

The near 13 per cent rise by the EGX30 Index since the Egypt election result was announced reflects relief that the political process prevailed in spite of fears that the military might override the will of the people. But the rally comes from a low base.