WTI is still trading near $50 a barrel, while Brent has pushed much higher and is now above $60. Karen Bleier / AFP
WTI is still trading near $50 a barrel, while Brent has pushed much higher and is now above $60. Karen Bleier / AFP

Uncertainty grows with oil price gap



Benchmark oil prices have firmed from their January lows, providing some reassurance to regional markets that the worst of the oil price plunge may now be behind it.

However, the contrasting performance between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, where the gap between the two benchmarks is currently at a two-year high, suggests that all may not be as it seems. WTI is still trading near US$50 a barrel, while Brent has pushed much higher and is now above $60, close to the average consensus forecast for the whole year.

As recently as January, when average oil prices were at their nadir for the year in the low $40s, there was hardly any difference between the benchmarks, with a gap of just $1.50 in late January, with WTI having rallied by 13 per cent to Brent’s 27 per cent the gap is now at $10. This suggests that there is greater uncertainty about the future path of oil prices and even greater selectivity, depending on which contract is actually being traded.

Over the past few weeks there has also been greater divergence of opinion among analysts, with some forecasting fresh lows for the year while others have called for a return to $100.

Not surprisingly, fundamental arguments offer contrasting theories about what is driving oil prices and why there are seemingly different trends between WTI and Brent.

The WTI contract would seem to reflect the underlying supply dynamics related to the US market, which has been one of the main sources of oversupply in recent years. Brent, on the other hand, is responding more to dynamics related to international markets, with an eye to political risk as well as to the improving growth outlook in parts of Europe and Asia.

In the near term, WTI prices will probably remain under pressure from seasonal refinery maintenance when demand will be limited. A strike by the United Steel Workers union has also affected about 20 per cent of US refining capacity, which comes amid cold weather also freezing up east coast facilities. But these seasonal and one-off factors are apart from surging shale output – the major factor in US oil prices.

The latest US government data estimates a crude oil supply of 9.2 million barrels per day in mid-February, up by about 17 per cent year on year. The sharp sell-off last year has led to major spending cuts for US shale oil producers, with many preferring to leave wells unfinished rather than produce at low prices. But these cuts and the falling rig count will probably not bite into the market until summer, setting the stage for relative WTI weakness to continue for now.

However, towards the end of 2015 and into next year, the resilient US economy should support a tighter market and oil prices above current levels.

On international markets, Brent’s trajectory has diverged somewhat from WTI’s, with average losing sessions since January smaller than those of its US counterpart.

Oscillating reports of disruptions or improvements in supply from Libya, where militias continue to affect output, and weather-related bottlenecks affecting loading from Iraq have helped to keep Brent trading near $60 since early February.

To the extent that demand was also a factor in depressing oil prices earlier in the year, signs of recovery in the euro zone recently are no doubt also now helping, along with a slight upturn in Chinese economic data. Encouragingly, both Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi have recently raised their official selling prices on signs of stronger demand.

One other thing we know is that Opec is showing no signs of capitulating in its battle to maintain market share. The latest data shows that Saudi Arabia continued to expand output in the latest month, showing that it feels little pressure to slash production and underpin the price.

Opec has been consistent in saying that it has no desire to set the price for oil and that it is prepared for the long haul, letting the market find a new equilibrium. Few probably expected oil prices to go back up as quickly as they fell, and the behaviour of WTI and Brent illustrates the complexities that remain.

Tim Fox is the head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD

Follow The National's Business section on Twitter

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

'Dark Waters'

Directed by: Todd Haynes

Starring: Mark Ruffalo, Anne Hathaway, William Jackson Harper 

Rating: ****

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESupy%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDani%20El-Zein%2C%20Yazeed%20bin%20Busayyis%2C%20Ibrahim%20Bou%20Ncoula%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFood%20and%20beverage%2C%20tech%2C%20hospitality%20software%2C%20Saas%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%20for%20six%20months%3B%20pre-seed%20round%20of%20%241.5%20million%3B%20seed%20round%20of%20%248%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBeco%20Capital%2C%20Cotu%20Ventures%2C%20Valia%20Ventures%20and%20Global%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20UAE%20men%E2%80%99s%20cricketer%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWhen%20he%20debuted%20against%20Bangladesh%20aged%2016%20years%20and%20314%20days%2C%20he%20became%20the%20youngest%20ever%20to%20play%20for%20the%20men%E2%80%99s%20senior%20team.%20He%20broke%20the%20record%20set%20by%20his%20World%20Cup%20squad-mate%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20of%2017%20years%20and%2044%20days.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20wicket-taker%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20taking%20the%20wicket%20of%20Bangladesh%E2%80%99s%20Litton%20Das%20on%20debut%20in%20Dubai%2C%20Aayan%20became%20the%20youngest%20male%20cricketer%20to%20take%20a%20wicket%20against%20a%20Full%20Member%20nation%20in%20a%20T20%20international.%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYoungest%20in%20T20%20World%20Cup%20history%3F%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAayan%20does%20not%20turn%2017%20until%20November%2015%20%E2%80%93%20which%20is%20two%20days%20after%20the%20T20%20World%20Cup%20final%20at%20the%20MCG.%20If%20he%20does%20play%20in%20the%20competition%2C%20he%20will%20be%20its%20youngest%20ever%20player.%20Pakistan%E2%80%99s%20Mohammed%20Amir%2C%20who%20was%2017%20years%20and%2055%20days%20when%20he%20played%20in%202009%2C%20currently%20holds%20the%20record.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tonight's Chat on The National

Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.

Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.

Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.

Facebook | Our website | Instagram

 

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

About%20My%20Father
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELaura%20Terruso%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERobert%20De%20Niro%2C%20Sebastian%20Maniscalco%2C%20Kim%20Cattrall%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go...

Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.

Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20May%2028%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20May%2029%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ETuesday%2C%20May%2031%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%201%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%203%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%204%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAhmed%20Raza%20(captain)%2C%20Chirag%20Suri%2C%20Muhammad%20Waseem%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20CP%20Rizwan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Kashif%20Daud%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20Akif%20Raja%2C%20Rahul%20Bhatia%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETable%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Oman%2032%2019%2011%2040%20%2B0.156%3Cbr%3E2.%20Scotland%2016%2011%203%2024%20%2B0.574%3Cbr%3E3.%20UAE%2018%2010%206%2022%20%2B0.22%3Cbr%3E4.%20Namibia%2014%207%207%2014%20%2B0.096%3Cbr%3E5.%20United%20States%2016%207%209%2014%20-0.229%3Cbr%3E6.%20Nepal%2012%206%206%2012%20%2B0.113%3Cbr%3E7.%20Papua%20New%20Guinea%2020%201%2019%202%20-0.856%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Nepotism is the name of the game

Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad. 

COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EElggo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20August%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Luma%20Makari%20and%20Mirna%20Mneimneh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Education%20technology%20%2F%20health%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Four%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Uefa Nations League: How it works

The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.

The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.

Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Men from Barca's class of 99

Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer

Everton - Ronald Koeman

Manchester City - Pep Guardiola

Manchester United - Jose Mourinho

Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino

How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
  • Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
  • Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
  • Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
  • Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
  • Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
  • Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Keane on …

Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”

Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”

Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”

One in nine do not have enough to eat

Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.

One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.

The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.

Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.

It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.

On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.

Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.

 

Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut

Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”

Day 1, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.

Stat of the day – 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.

The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227-4 at the close.

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed 

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Sreesanth's India bowling career

Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40

ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55

T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12

Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
  • Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
  • Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
  • Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
 
 
PROFILE OF STARZPLAY

Date started: 2014

Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand

Number of employees: 125

Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners

The biog

Name: Sari Al Zubaidi

Occupation: co-founder of Cafe di Rosati

Age: 42

Marital status: single

Favourite drink: drip coffee V60

Favourite destination: Bali, Indonesia 

Favourite book: 100 Years of Solitude