What if the Syrian regime crumbled today? Did the government lose control - at least briefly - when at least four of the regime's top figures were killed in a bomb attack in Damascus in July? In my opinion, it probably did.
Those officials, including the dictator's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, linked the regime's top echelons with the security apparatus in overseeing the daily repression. That chain was probably broken, for a brief period, before the embattled regime reasserted its control and the violence continued as usual.
But how would the regime's opponents know? They clearly lack the necessary tools even to immediately recognise a power vacuum, much less fill it. Even if the regime fell, the war would continue until people on both sides became aware of the vacuum. The rebels must keep this in mind.
If the rebels are to achieve palpable results, new strategies are needed. From interviews with activists, rebel fighters and regime's loyalists, there appear to be two critical areas where rebels must focus to break the stalemate.
First, strike the regime's backbone. The Assads increasingly rely on militia-like forces that carry out daily operations on the ground, with little supervision from the Damascus leadership. The Assads have undoubtedly signed off on the killing, but in the form of general directives, rather than tactical leadership. That is why day-to-day operations were hardly affected by the July bomb.
And that is why a political solution is so unlikely at present. The ground forces will keep on fighting as long as they believe they can win, which is a dynamic the regime recognises.
The state has disintegrated, in the sense that the top leadership is detached from the rank-and-file forces partly for practical reasons. Regime loyalists on the ground have often demanded that more force be used, and criticised Damascus for a "soft" approach.
Rank-and-file units are unfamiliar with the regime's strategic limitations, and are increasingly frustrated with its inability to crush the rebellion. Although most of these units are led by experienced officers, a significant number of regime fighters joined after the protests began 19 months ago. With the exception of the air force and elite units, such as the Republican Guard and the 4th Mechanised Brigade, the bulk of pro-government forces operate like unrestrained militias.
The war in Syria has morphed into localised battles of endurance, which often favours insurgents. In some cases, however, regime ground forces effectively act as irregular militias as well. That can be a strength as well as a weakness.
The regime's leaders still believe that they can win this conflict as long as the ground forces are resilient and able to fight a protracted civil war, which could last for several years.
If rank-and-file officers begin to feel that they are bearing the brunt of the fighting, they will recognise the limits of their power, and the importance of compromise to save their own skins.
The second area that rebels must work on is establishing political leadership with a strong presence on the ground. Contrary to popular belief, a unified political opposition is even more urgent than a unified command-and-control structure among the armed rebels. Many of the disagreements among anti-regime fighters are the result of rivalries at the political level - the most salient example is the distribution of arms according to political loyalties.
A unified on-the-ground resistance cannot be the prerequisite for assistance and weapons supplies.
A coherent political leadership, backed financially and politically by foreign states, is more urgent than ever. As the US magazine Foreign Policy reported on Tuesday, the US administration intends to launch a new Syrian opposition council during meetings in Qatar next week.
The present Syrian National Council has proved time and again that it cannot reform and become inclusive on its own. An international effort is needed to make that happen. Foreign countries, particularly those that wield influence because they supply arms and aid, can help to forge unity on the ground.
Political leadership must be connected to Syrians inside the country, working closely with activists and fighters, and begin to administer areas where the regime has little or no presence. When the opposition members inside Syria feel that they are sacrificing their lives, they naturally owe no allegiance to politicians living in hotels in foreign capitals.
Just as importantly, the presence of political leadership inside the country would begin to build a model to replace the regime. Assad opponents need to capitalise on the regime's weaknesses, instead of mirroring its behaviour. The dictator is trying to divide and rule; the opposition must unite and lead. He is alienating people by destroying neighbourhoods; the opposition must improve ties with ordinary Syrians, even those who do not support the revolution. Regime tactics work because opponents offer no coherent counterstrategy.
Rebels need effective weapons to be able to defend the areas where they operate. But even with better weapons, at best they can force the regime to negotiate, not cede power.
International diplomacy, personified by the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, appears to be based on waiting until one side seeks negotiation. The rebels can force this to happen, but not with the current strategy.
[ hhassan@thenational.ae ]
On Twitter: @hhassan140
Small Things Like These
Director: Tim Mielants
Cast: Cillian Murphy, Emily Watson, Eileen Walsh
Rating: 4/5
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
Forced Deportations
While the Lebanese government has deported a number of refugees back to Syria since 2011, the latest round is the first en-mass campaign of its kind, say the Access Center for Human Rights, a non-governmental organization which monitors the conditions of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
“In the past, the Lebanese General Security was responsible for the forced deportation operations of refugees, after forcing them to sign papers stating that they wished to return to Syria of their own free will. Now, the Lebanese army, specifically military intelligence, is responsible for the security operation,” said Mohammad Hasan, head of ACHR.
In just the first four months of 2023 the number of forced deportations is nearly double that of the entirety of 2022.
Since the beginning of 2023, ACHR has reported 407 forced deportations – 200 of which occurred in April alone.
In comparison, just 154 people were forcfully deported in 2022.
Violence
Instances of violence against Syrian refugees are not uncommon.
Just last month, security camera footage of men violently attacking and stabbing an employee at a mini-market went viral. The store’s employees had engaged in a verbal altercation with the men who had come to enforce an order to shutter shops, following the announcement of a municipal curfew for Syrian refugees.
“They thought they were Syrian,” said the mayor of the Nahr el Bared municipality, Charbel Bou Raad, of the attackers.
It later emerged the beaten employees were Lebanese. But the video was an exemplary instance of violence at a time when anti-Syrian rhetoric is particularly heated as Lebanese politicians call for the return of Syrian refugees to Syria.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Omania, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
Winner: Brehaan, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Craving, Connor Beasley, Simon Crisford
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Prep (PA) Dh100,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Dahess D’Arabie, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Fertile De Croate, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
The specs
Powertrain: Single electric motor
Power: 201hp
Torque: 310Nm
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Battery: 53kWh lithium-ion battery pack (GS base model); 70kWh battery pack (GF)
Touring range: 350km (GS); 480km (GF)
Price: From Dh129,900 (GS); Dh149,000 (GF)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
SPECS
Engine: Twin-turbocharged 4-litre V8
Power: 625 bhp
Torque: 630Nm
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh974,011
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) | US$95,000 | (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) ) | $175,000) | (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3 (TB) ) | $300,000) | (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Curlin Handicap Listed (TB)) | $160,000) | (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB)) | $175,000) | (T) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (T) 2,000m
ALRAWABI SCHOOL FOR GIRLS
Creator: Tima Shomali
Starring: Tara Abboud, Kira Yaghnam, Tara Atalla
Rating: 4/5
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
UAE v United States, T20 International Series
Both matches at ICC Academy, Dubai. Admission is free.
1st match: Friday, 2pm
2nd match: Saturday, 2pm
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Amjad Gul, CP Rizwan, Mohammed Boota, Abdul Shakoor, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
USA squad: Saurabh Netravalkar (captain), Jaskaran Malhotra, Elmore Hutchinson, Aaron Jones, Nosthush Kenjige, Ali Khan, Jannisar Khan, Xavier Marshall, Monank Patel, Timil Patel, Roy Silva, Jessy Singh, Steven Taylor, Hayden Walsh
DUBAI SEVENS 2018 DRAW
Gulf Men’s League
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Sports City Eagles
Pool B – Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf Men’s Open
Pool A – Bahrain Firbolgs, Arabian Knights, Yalla Rugby, Muscat
Pool B – Amman Citadel, APB Dubai Sharks, Jebel Ali Dragons 2, Saudi Rugby
Pool C – Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2, Roberts Construction, Dubai Exiles 2
Pool D – Dubai Tigers, UAE Shaheen, Sharjah Wanderers, Amman Citadel 2
Gulf U19 Boys
Pool A – Deira International School, Dubai Hurricanes, British School Al Khubairat, Jumeirah English Speaking School B
Pool B – Dubai English Speaking College 2, Jumeirah College, Dubai College A, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2
Pool C – Bahrain Colts, Al Yasmina School, DESC, DC B
Pool D – Al Ain Amblers, Repton Royals, Dubai Exiles, Gems World Academy Dubai
Pool E – JESS A, Abu Dhabi Sharks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 1, EC
Gulf Women
Pool A – Kuwait Scorpions, Black Ruggers, Dubai Sports City Eagles, Dubai Hurricanes 2
Pool B – Emirates Firebirds, Sharjah Wanderers, RAK Rides, Beirut Aconites
Pool C – Dubai Hurricanes, Emirates Firebirds 2, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Transforma Panthers
Pool D – AUC Wolves, Dubai Hawks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf U19 Girls
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, BSAK, DESC, Al Maha
Pool B – Arabian Knights, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Abu Dhabi Harlequins
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
TECH SPECS: APPLE WATCH SERIES 8
Display: 41mm, 352 x 430; 45mm, 396 x 484; Retina LTPO OLED, up to 1000 nits, always-on; Ion-X glass
Processor: Apple S8, W3 wireless, U1 ultra-wideband
Capacity: 32GB
Memory: 1GB
Platform: watchOS 9
Health metrics: 3rd-gen heart rate sensor, temperature sensing, ECG, blood oxygen, workouts, fall/crash detection; emergency SOS, international emergency calling
Connectivity: GPS/GPS + cellular; Wi-Fi, LTE, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Apple Pay)
Durability: IP6X, water resistant up to 50m, dust resistant
Battery: 308mAh Li-ion, up to 18h, wireless charging
Cards: eSIM
Finishes: Aluminium – midnight, Product Red, silver, starlight; stainless steel – gold, graphite, silver
In the box: Watch Series 8, magnetic-to-USB-C charging cable, band/loop
Price: Starts at Dh1,599 (41mm) / Dh1,999 (45mm)
Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle
Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)
Harry & Meghan
Director: Liz Garbus
Stars: Duke and Duchess of Sussex
Rating: 3/5
THE HOLDOVERS
Director: Alexander Payne
Starring: Paul Giamatti, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa
Rating: 4.5/5
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier
Event info: The tournament in Kuwait this month is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.
UAE’s fixtures: Fri Apr 20, UAE v Qatar; Sat Apr 21, UAE v Saudi Arabia; Mon Apr 23, UAE v Bahrain; Tue Apr 24, UAE v Maldives; Thu Apr 26, UAE v Kuwait
World T20 2020 Qualifying process:
- Sixteen teams will play at the World T20 in two years’ time.
- Australia have already qualified as hosts
- Nine places are available to the top nine ranked sides in the ICC’s T20i standings, not including Australia, on Dec 31, 2018.
- The final six teams will be decided by a 14-team World T20 Qualifier.
World T20 standings: 1 Pakistan; 2 Australia; 3 India; 4 New Zealand; 5 England; 6 South Africa; 7 West Indies; 8 Sri Lanka; 9 Afghanistan; 10 Bangladesh; 11 Scotland; 12 Zimbabwe; 13 UAE; 14 Netherlands; 15 Hong Kong; 16 Papua New Guinea; 17 Oman; 18 Ireland
UAE v West Indies
First ODI - Sunday, June 4
Second ODI - Tuesday, June 6
Third ODI - Friday, June 9
Matches at Sharjah Cricket Stadium. All games start at 4.30pm
UAE squad
Muhammad Waseem (captain), Aayan Khan, Adithya Shetty, Ali Naseer, Ansh Tandon, Aryansh Sharma, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Ethan D’Souza, Fahad Nawaz, Jonathan Figy, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Lovepreet Singh, Matiullah, Mohammed Faraazuddin, Muhammad Jawadullah, Rameez Shahzad, Rohan Mustafa, Sanchit Sharma, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: SimpliFi
Started: August 2021
Founder: Ali Sattar
Based: UAE
Industry: Finance, technology
Investors: 4DX, Rally Cap, Raed, Global Founders, Sukna and individuals
Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.