Below, ahead of the World Twenty20 semi-finals, Osman Samiuddin lays out a case for each of the final four sides left in the tournament:
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The only side yet to be defeated in the tournament and well worth that record. New Zealand have been the smartest, most adaptable team here, able to tailor their XI perfectly to the demands of the pitch and opponent. The win over India was the big result, but they have been just as impressive in their dismantling of the rest of the sides.
Why they will win
Because it is finally time they do? They have been the nearly-men for so long that it feels like they must break through at some moment. On a more serious note, they have a depth in bowling that can see them prosper almost on any kind of surface.
Why they will not win
All four of New Zealand’s wins have come defending targets so the one spanner in their smoothly-prepared campaign could be if New Zealand end up chasing a target. Their batting order is eminently capable of doing it, but under pressure, in a semi-final, having not had to do it could be a potential banana peel.
England’s progress to the semi-finals has been a strangely invigorating one. They were hammered by the West Indies and one big over was the difference between a win and a loss to Afghanistan. The win against South Africa, though, was the result that points to the frightening potential of this side, especially their batting. On its day, nothing is beyond the realms of possibility.
Why they will win
Collectively, England have scored the most runs in this tournament. They have just the right balance for the format: immense power up top, the modern-day cool of Joe Root in the middle and a real sting in the lower middle order with the likes of Jos Buttler and Ben Stokes.
Why they will not win
Collectively, England have also conceded the most runs in this tournament. Their attack does oscillate between high and low alarmingly. Their spinners, capable of taking wickets, are also big run-leakers. Other than Liam Plunkett, who has played only two games, none of their bowlers is conceding less than eight runs an over. The fear is one day their bowling could put together a shocker even their batsmen cannot recover from.
Even the possibility of mass player boycotts and an ongoing and toxic dispute with their board has not dulled the West Indies. They were far from flawless through the group stage and the loss to Afghanistan, even if it was a dead rubber, showed up some worrying complacency. But they have a strong core of players who are intimately aware of the rhythms of this format, of when to seize momentum and when to relax, to make them dangerous whenever and wherever they turn up.
Why they will win
Between the last World Twenty20 and this one, West Indies had played among the least number of T20Is by a full member side. It hardly matters because their best individuals get enough exposure in some of the best franchise leagues around the world to form a coherent whole. Enough of their batsmen have contributed to suggest at least one will again, and Dwayne Bravo, with the ball, has been outstanding.
Why they will not win
Their batting has veered between awesome and ordinary. Though they are no longer that reliant on Chris Gayle, he can still be the difference between a big score and a middling one. And the deeper you go, the nervier they can get.
Given their run-in to the tournament and their Twenty20 form over the last couple of years, India’s group run has not been as smooth as it was expected. In each of their games, their batting has gone through early wobbles. But – and this is a big but – other than the opening loss to New Zealand, they have pulled through each time like a team that knows it can.
Why they will win
Virat Kohli alone constitutes the most compelling reason as to why India can win this, especially if he is in charge of a chase. But their bowling, so often seen as their lesser suit, has actually been outstanding, whether dismantling Pakistan in Kolkata, or pulling back against Australia in Mohali. If they get it right, it will be difficult to overcome.
Why they will not
Kohli’s brilliance has papered over a batting line-up that has just not performed collectively. Yuvraj Singh, Suresh Raina, Shikhar Dhawan and Rohit Sharma, collectively, have scored three runs less than Kohli has by himself and three of them at strike rates of 100 or less. If Kohli fails then...