On the eve of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, Steve Luckings and Paul Radley address the burning questions that will need to be answered over the next six weeks.
Does the return of overseas-based players enhance Australia’s chances of success?
The Australian Rugby Union’s decision to recall overseas-based players who had previously played more than 60-plus Tests for the Wallabies could prove to be one of the wisest the body has ever enforced. Being able to call on the calibre of player of Matt Giteau, right, and Drew Mitchell enhances any squad. Both now play their club rugby in France, whose domestic league, with its litany of global stars, arguably offers a higher standard of rugby than most international teams can. Their recalls for the recent Rugby Championship showed both can still perform at Test level. Giteau’s calming influence — not to mention being a handy left-footed kicking option — at second receiver will offer the Wallabies experience, guile and streetsmarts and also allow fly-half Quade Cooper to try more tricks and play more off-the-cuff.
How will Wales cope with the loss of influential players Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Webb?
Replacing the likes of fullback Halfpenny, a kicking metronome, and Webb, whose probing and passing from scrum-half are major weapons in Wales’s attacking arsenal, is a huge task. But if there is one thing Warren Gatland is not, it is a fool. The near-hysteria over his decision to omit the veteran Mike Phillips from his initial 31-man squad was tantamount to treason in the principality, but Phillips is only ever a phone call and a short drive away should any of Gatland’s three first-choice No 9s be ruled out. Would it surprise anyone to see Phillips go from exile to first choice for Wales’s opening game against Uruguay? No. You can question the coach’s wisdom of playing Halfpenny, pictured after sustaining his tournament-ending injury, in the final World Cup warm-up match against Italy, given how heavily strapped his right knee was, but if players only ever played when they were 100 per cent fit, they would hardly play at all.
Which France will turn up?
It is said in some quarters that the only thing you can trust the French to be at a World Cup is French. What is meant is that French teams are legendary for their unpredictability: they can be both terrible and terrific all in the same match. Twice beaten finalists Les Bleus, led by the outstanding Thierry Dusautoir, came within a score of breaking a few million New Zealand hearts when they had the All Blacks on the rack during the closing stages of the last World Cup final at Auckland four years ago. Four years previous to that, they were a shambles, losing their opening game and third place-play off to the same team, Argentina, as one of the 2007 tournament’s hosts. The draw has been kind to Philippe Saint-Andre’s squad, pitting them in Pool D against Ireland, Italy, Canada and Romania. Three wins will be enough for them to progress to the knockouts, however, not since Saint-Andre first took the reins in 2012 have France won three games on the trot.
Can Argentina’s backs outmuscle their forward pack?
A Super Rugby win over South Africa, their first ever over the Springboks, this summer makes the Pumas a force to be reckoned with. There is no great secret to the way Argentina play: scrummaging warriors the envy of the world assert their dominance in the tight and a reliable goal kicker tries to make that forward dominance count by keeping the scoreboard ticking over. But where once the backline was merely a bastion of defence, Argentina now have plenty of creativity and try-scoring threats behind their dogged foot soldiers. Fly-half Juan Martin Hernandez, right, has the skills and vision to create the gaps for his backs to exploit.
Can Scotland sink any lower?
Finlay Calder, Scott and Gavin Hastings, Gregor Townsend, Euan Murray — Scotland has produced plenty of players who sit comfortably in the “world-class” bracket, but few of late. Scotland had the lowest representation of the home countries for the 2013 British & Irish Lions tour to Australia (four) and an abysmal Six Nations campaign this year saw them finish last under new coach Vern Cotter, right. Everyone of their Pool B opponents — South Africa, Samoa, Japan and the United States — will fancy their chances of victory against the Scots. Can they emerge as a respectable international team again? Time will tell.
Is Heyneke Meyer’s South Africa side too conservative?
Jake White, the 2007 World Cup winning Springboks coach: You have to be conservative to win World Cups. All the way through. World Cups are won by being the side who makes less mistakes than anyone else. No team has won the World Cup without winning their pool. You have to win that first, you have to be conservative in doing that. Some romantics would say, "Give everyone a start in the World Cup." It is seven weeks. It doesn't matter how many guys play or how long they have on the field. You just have to win every game. That is conservative in approach. It is not liberal. I am certain New Zealand are going to win. Have South Africa got a chance? Of course they have. But every card needs to fall right for Heyneke Meyer. Every player has to be fit in Week 5. Every player has to be positive, buoyed by the fact they have played good rugby. They all must sense they can win the World Cup. There are a lot of permutations that have to fall in favour of South Africa for them to reach Week 5 thinking they genuinely have a crack at winning. It will have to be a flawless five weeks.
Is playing at home an advantage or a burden?
Jeremy Guscott, who played for England at three World Cups: I played at home in 1991 and there is nothing better than that, in terms of creating a feel-good factor. We lost to the Kiwis in the opening game, then we went on this run of victories and it was full steam ahead. We were steaming on, thanks to the support of the home crowd. Look at now. We are hearing the French say there are not enough designer shops in Croydon, where they are based. Not enough coffee-shops, I guess. But wherever we went back then, we were cheered and patted on the back. That feel-good factor really helped us, and I think it will do the same for this England side. I feel really good about their chances. Playing at home, their record is pretty much impeccable. In the past 10 games at Twickenham, they have only lost twice. Their record playing at home in World Cups is good. Also, the players are in great shape. Their fitness is at an all-time high. I don't think there is a secret formula to winning a World Cup, or even any particular international game. You are dealt a hand of cards. The toughest job a coach will ever have is making the right selections.
Is Dan Carter still the man for New Zealand?
Josh Kronfeld, a finalist with the All Blacks in 1995: Before they started resting him, Colin Slade was one of the best first-fives in New Zealand, performing in a Crusaders team that was not performing well. Beauden Barrett was of a similar ilk for the Hurricanes before he suffered injury. Since coming back, I don't think he has found the truest of form. He has got time to grow into it, and playing rugby improves form. Then there was Lima Sopoaga for the Highlanders, who was probably the most in-form of the lot. Dan Carter, by contrast, was not playing great rugby. But he was being played out of position. When he was back in position, at fly-half, we started to see the Dan of old. He is calm, collected, he has been taking the line on. He has been picking his passes, making his kicks. His confidence has been sure. He looks back to his old, effortless self. Questions were asked, justifiably. He is starting to answer them again. He is very astute. He has got Wayne Smith and Grant Fox in his ear, enabling him to see stuff he probably would not be looking for. They will be giving him cues to be better, and I can't imagine him going poorly with the likes of Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu around him.
