Roma’s Miralem Pjanic and Edin Dzeko may dictate Martin O’Neill’s ultimate fate at Ireland

Two footballing nations boast a manager with the same surname, O’Neill, but only one is definitely going to Euro 2016, and it is not the most decorated O’Neill or the one with the stronger pool of players, writes Richard Jolly.

Edin Dzeko, left, of Bosnia takes on Glenn Whelan of Ireland during their Euro 2016 Qualifier Play-Off First Leg match at Bilino Polje Stadium on November 13, 2015 in Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dzeko scored in that match and if he finds the net again in the second leg, it could be big trouble for Martin O'Neill at Ireland. (Photo by Srdjan Stevanovic/Getty Images)Show less

Those who are not from the Emerald Isle could be forgiven if they were confused. Two footballing nations boast a manager with the same surname, O’Neill, and identical initials, M. Both are former Northern Ireland international midfielders. Both were appointed because of their motivational prowess and habit of overperforming on limited resources.

But only one is definitely going to Euro 2016, and it is not the most decorated O’Neill or the one with the stronger pool of players. Michael O’Neill oversaw Northern Ireland’s first successful qualification campaign in three decades. Martin O’Neill may fail where his predecessor as the Republic of Ireland manager, Giovanni Trapattoni, succeeded, if he cannot steer them to the European Championship in France next year.

That he has been outperformed by a namesake is an unfortunate coincidence. Martin O’Neill, Northern Ireland captain at the 1982 World Cup, remains their most successful captain of the past 50 years. He ranks as Leicester City’s best manager in the same period, Wycombe Wanderers’ greatest and arguably Celtic’s finest since the legendary European Cup winner Jock Stein.

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And yet, the past few years have been a fallow period. Monday’s match may provide an answer if one who long defied footballing gravity is now in a downwards spiral.

The reality is that international managers, unlike many of their club counterparts, can be judged on the basis of a solitary game. After Friday’s creditable 1-1 draw in Zenica, the Republic of Ireland’s destiny comes down to the second leg of their play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Fail to qualify, and even if he stays on for the 2018 World Cup qualifying campaign, as seems likely, and his managerial career could peter out. Head for France and O’Neill will have effected a remarkable renaissance. He supported Sunderland as a boy, but managing them proved difficult – the fact that others can testify as much suggests the problem did not lie with him – and, three months ago, it seemed unlikely that Ireland could manage even a play-off place.

They sat fourth in Group D. They had taken only one point from a possible six against Scotland, their probable rivals for third place. While O’Neill’s native Northern Ireland were prospering, his adopted country were struggling. Perhaps the magic had gone.

Their revival came in O’Neill’s truest traditions. He prospered for years by upsetting the odds. Ireland’s September victory over World Cup winners Germany felt like a throwback performance. It was testament to his capacity to imbue his players with a never-say-die spirit.

That particular brand of alchemy was a reason why O’Neill and Ireland had felt a good fit. As befits one who played for Brian Clough, he is a man-manager. Irish teams have rarely been overburdened with technical talent – it seemed that Trapattoni abandoned all attempts to keep the ball – but have been at their best when galvanised by a charismatic manager.

Even with undistinguished performances for much of their qualifying campaign, O’Neill’s side have shown an aversion to defeat, scoring injury-time equalisers at home to Poland and away in Germany.

Yet the limitations in personnel have been compounded by a difficulty in finding a successful formula. James McCarthy and Seamus Coleman may be the only high-class players at their peak. Robbie Keane’s 67 international goals is the fifth-highest tally by any European but has only one in the past five years, against Sweden, has come against remotely decent opposition in competitive games. The captain tends to be a substitute in such encounters.

O’Neill at least can welcome back forward Jonathan Walters and centre-back John O’Shea, who were both suspended for Friday’s first leg, but he tends to rely on more athletic performers with a lower pedigree. His side includes a contingent of second-tier Championship players.

Bosnia probably have more ability in their ranks. O’Neill’s fate may depend on the Roma pair of Miralem Pjanic and Edin Dzeko. They may dictate if he is seen as fading force or a manager who can still cajole his charges to overachieve.

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