As the NHL play-offs reach the conference finals stages, here are some predictions on who to expect to reach the Stanley Cup finals next month.
Eastern Conference
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the wild card of the NHL conference finals.
They have had the easiest path of any of the four surviving teams, having faced the Detroit Red Wings, who barely qualified for the post-season, and then the New York Islanders, who were missing their best goaltender.
On the other hand Tampa dispatched those opponents in only five games apiece. No other team has been as quick with its kills.
Tampa Bay have got this far despite the absence of their No 2 defenceman Anton Stralman with a fractured left leg, but he returned for his first full practice on Tuesday.
The biggest variable of all is their superstar sniper Steven Stamkos, out since April because of a blood clot, and who has participated only in non-contact drills.
With all these question marks Tampa opem the Eastern Conference final at the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday night.
The Penguins are fast and confident. A squad that appeared disjointed at the start of the season have been invigorated by the appointment of Mike Sullivan as coach in December, by mid-season trade acquisitions – Trevor Daley from the Chicago Blackhawks, the super-speedy Carl Hagelin from the Anaheim Ducks – and by a passel of hard-working call-ups from the minors – Tom Kuhnhackl, Bryan Rust and most of all Matt Murray.
If Tampa are the wild card of the play-offs, then Murray is the sudden sensation.
He started the season with the farm club and was called up only because the regular goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury, was concussed.
When the fill-in Jeff Zatkoff faltered, the Penguins anointed Murray and have never looked back.
This is a kid who plays like a veteran. He does not waste energy, and uses his positioning to let the puck hit him.
In the second round the Washington Capitals tried going high on his glove side and had some early success, but then he shut that down.
Let us presume that Murray continues to play well, that Stralman returns early in the series and that Stamkos returns late if at all.
What then might be the pivotal difference?
It could come on defence. Tampa’s Victor Hedman is, through two rounds of the play-offs, a front-runner for the post-season’s most valuable player award.
Hedman shut down the New York Islanders superstar John Tavares in the second round (although Tavares did have bad luck with goalposts).
Hedman does what the best defencemen do: he controls the flow of the game. Had Tampa toppled Chicago in last year’s Cup final, he would have been MVP.
In their regular season matchups Tampa swept Pittsburgh (a 5-4 win in overtime on Jan 15, then 6-3 on Feb 5 and 4-2 on Feb 20). The missing men were pivotal: in those three matches Stralman scored four of his nine regular-season goals while Stamkos had two goals and three assists.
Prediction: Tampa in seven
Western Conference
In the western conference the San Jose Sharks meet the St Louis Blues, starting Sunday.
Here we have two teams that, after a period as play-off underachievers, are each coming off a decisive Game 7 win to seal a second-round series.
While St Louis is full value, and their rookie Robby Fabbri has been a revelation, San Jose have the deepest roster of any team still in the play-offs.
It always seems like their best guys are on the ice, no matter which guys they have on the ice.
And if Tampa’s Hedman is front-runner for first star of the playoffs, then San Jose’s Brent Burns is his running mate.
Burns is tied for the post-season scoring lead with 15 points. His shots from the point are a terror for opposing goalies, especially on the power play. St Louis has no defender of Burns’s calibre.
Note that both St Louis and San Jose acquired some grit from the now-eliminated Washington Capitals in the off-season: Troy Brouwer for St Louis, Joel Ward for San Jose.
In the regular season the San Jose won two of three against St Louis (3-1 on February 4, 6-3 with four points by Joe Thornton on February 22, and then a 1-0 loss on March 22).
Right now San Jose deserve to be ranked as favourites to win the Cup.
Prediction: San Jose in four
Picks update
After my picks went 5-3 in the first round, I was 3-1 with my second round selections, having underestimated Pittsburgh (again).
Before the play-offs began my prediction for the Cup final was Washington over San Jose in six, but that is dead in the water. So I will switch to San Jose over Tampa in six.
Second-round results
Halfway through the play-offs there has yet to be a sweep, the regular season’s division winners are all out, and none of the four remaining teams has won the Cup in this decade.
The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the New York Islanders in five games. The series was closer than the outcome indicates; Isles twice held third-period leads only to lose in overtime.
The Pittsburgh Penguins upset the Cup-favourite Washington Capitals in six games. Washington star goalie Braden Holtby was ordinary and star defender Brooks Orpik was suspended three games for a headshot that knocked out Pittsburgh’s Olli Maatta.
The St Louis Blues upset the Dallas Stars in seven games. In the deciding game, St Louis deployed skill and desire to beat Dallas 34-5 in blocked shots and 6-1 in goals.
The San Jose Sharks defeated the Nashville Predators in seven games. San Jose pulverised Nashville 5-0 in Game 7 on Thursday night – shots were 23-8 in favour of San Jose after two periods.
rmckenzie@thenational.ae
