Click through for previews, analysis and predictions for the Eastern Conference’s first-round play-off games.
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• First round schedule, UAE times
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS V DETROIT PISTONS
• Regular season head-to-head Detroit won 3 of 4
• LeBron James’ playground is the Eastern Conference play-offs. All four of his Miami Heat teams made the Finals, and he’s taken Cleveland there virtually on his own twice in his career. He’s won five straight Eastern Conference championships, and his Cavaliers are the favourites to make it a sixth as the East’s top seed.
Detroit actually had the better of their Central Division rivals in the regular season, winning three of four. But that’s not a true measure of the disparity between the teams. The third of those wins came in the regular-season finale, when both teams sat their starters to avoid injuries. Detroit barely won a battle of backups in overtime. The other two Detroit wins were impressive, even once holding James to 12 points. But Play-off LeBron is a different animal altogether.
If the Pistons have an edge, it’s in coaching. Stan Van Gundy has turned Detroit into a respectable club in only two years, building something resembling his Dwight Howard-Orlando days around stud centre Andre Drummond. Cleveland, meanwhile, has the inexperienced Tyronn Lue, who replaced David Blatt mid-season Fun fact: Both Lue and Blatt coached 41 games. Blatt went 30-11 before being fired, and Lue has gone 27-14 since.
Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson, their best play-maker, is banged up, and is questionable for Game 1. That’s not ideal when it comes to chasing around Kyrie Irving. Detroit might steal a game when the series shifts to Detroit, and will frustrate Cleveland at times by being physical and scoring off the bench. But their nice season will come to an early end at the hands of Play-off LeBron.
• Prediction Cavaliers in 5
TORONTO RAPTORS V INDIANA PACERS
• Regular season head-to-head Toronto won 3 of 4
• This is already the most successful season in Toronto history, with a franchise-record 53 wins and a No. 2 seed. How history will remember this team, though, all comes down to their post-season performance, which the past couple of seasons has been poor – they haven’t advanced past the first round, including an embarrassing sweep at the hands of Washington last season.
The good news is that this year’s defence is much better. Head coach Dwane Casey has taken Toronto from 25th in defensive rating to 11th this year. Combined with the No. 5 offence and a much better bench and wing depth than last year, this year’s Raptors are arguably the most well-rounded team in the East.
Indiana is here because of their No. 3 defence, but other than Paul George (23.1 points per game) they struggle to score. The Pacers finished the season strong, winning 6 of their last 7, but that was mostly against the drudges of the East. Even with a top 3 defence, facing a backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan is a tough assignment. This will be the year the Raptors get past the first round, and they’re a legitimate threat to make the Finals.
• Prediction Raptors in 5
MIAMI HEAT V CHARLOTTE HORNETS
• Regular season head-to-head Each team won twice
If anyone, anywhere cared about NBA division titles, the Southeast this year was one of the most exciting races ever. Miami, Atlanta and Charlotte all went 48-34. Miami is technically the division champion with tie-breakers factored in, but all they really have to show for that is home-court advantage in the first round against a team that won just as many games. The Heat and Hornets even split the four-game season series. This is probably the most evenly matched first-round series.
Miami – a team dotted with future Hall of Famers – was expected to be here. Charlotte, on the other hand, is one of the most surprising teams in the whole league. Head coach Steve Clifford has turned the Hornets into a lethal three-point-shooting team (4th in makes, 8th in percentage). They’re a great defensive rebounding team, too, with Al Jefferson often anchoring two 3-and-D wings in Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams that fight for every loose ball. And they had the fewest turnovers of any team. There are no easy possessions against the Hornets.
Everything has come together for this group of players. At the fore of that, though, is Kemba Walker, who in his fifth season has finally become the plus-offensive player he was always supposed to be.
But is it enough to beat Miami? Dwanye Wade obviously isn’t what he was, but is one of the best play-off performers in league history and can still drop 30 any night. Joe Johnson was added late in the year and has been a fantastic offensive supplement, and has had many play-off battles. Nobody knows if Hassan Whiteside is actually good, but his numbers are eye-popping. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow have been as good as a team could hope for two rookies. They’re really deep, with a lot of play-off experience.
That last point is why I think they’ll win the series, but Charlotte is going to give them fits along the way.
• Prediction Miami in 7
ATLANTA HAWKS V BOSTON CELTICS
• Regular season head-to-head Atlanta won 3 of 4
This might not be the same Hawks team that won 60 games last year, and the No. 4 seed is a marked step down for them. But Atlanta did manage to earn home-court in the first round against a team they played extremely well, winning three of four regular season games against the Celtics.
Boston plays the same way as Atlanta — defence first, with a motion-based, pass-heavy offence. The Celtics just don’t have the same level of talent Atlanta does. Boston coach Brad Stevens is a wunderkind who deserves praise for getting something out of a young group with no true blue-chip players. And Isaiah Thomas (22.2 PPG) would give any team fits, especially those with slower point guards.
The Atlanta Hawks do not have slow point guards. Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder are as athletic a duo as the league has to offer, and can follow Thomas around for all 48 minutes between them if need be. On the other end, Thomas will either have to guard one of Teague or Shroder, or give way those duties to Avery Bradley while instead chasing Kyle Korver around screen after screen. Thomas will have his work cut out for him all series.
Boston had a nice year, but Atlanta had their number. It’s just a bad matchup for the Celtics, especially down low, where Al Horford and Paul Milsap are the best 1-2 frontcourt in the NBA. They’re a poor rebounding team, but they’re elite at forcing turnovers.
It’s a matchup of two of the top four defences. Atlanta had the stingiest unit in the NBA post-All-Star break, and their three-point shooters finally started hitting down the stretch, which shows their relatively average offensive rankings might be lower than the true story. This is the ninth straight postseason for Atlanta, and that experience will win out in the end.
• Prediction Hawks in 6
