The 2015 season resumes Friday, after a four-day break for the All-Star Game, with most clubs having played about 90 games.
They still have 70-plus to play, but we have enough data now to form broad opinions about most of the 30 teams.
We know that two clubs, the St Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals, look very much like play-off teams. Each has won more than 60 per cent of their games and teams who reach that threshold do not miss the play-offs.
The second tier, teams who seem likely to contend to the end, includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates, in the National League, and the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins in the American.
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At the other end of the spectrum, four clubs have lost at least 10 more games than they have won – the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies – and seem unlikely to revive sufficiently to contend for a play-offs berth.
With 12 weeks left in the season, that leaves an unusually high number of teams, 18, who are not good enough to feel confident, not bad enough to give up.
Few of those 18 clubs will be looking to shed expensive veterans, particularly pitchers, as long as they feel they have a chance to snag one of the four wild-card play-offs berths.
It seems likely two prominent starting pitchers soon will be made available: Cole Hamels of the woeful Phillies and Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds.
It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers, who have two excellent starting pitchers in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke but are shaky thereafter, open their chequebook again and land one of Hamels or Cueto. The Dodgers are one of the top brands in the game, but they have not played in a World Series since 1988 and it rankles.
Another interesting storyline involves the American League East, home to some of the game’s most popular teams, including the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
None of the five teams in the division can be counted out and if the first-place Yankees hit a fallow period, the division could be headed towards something as crazy as a two or three-way tie at the top.
Washington has the best player in the National League in Bryce Harper, only 22, and they also have one of the top pitchers, in Max Scherzer, and this could be the season they finally reach the World Series.
Fans who cheer for the underdog are hoping the Houston Astros, who lost 111 games just two seasons ago, can make the play-offs behind their overachieving youngsters, but they lost six consecutive games before the All-Star Game and may not have enough to stay with the Angels in the American League West.
The Astros have several of the game’s top young players but need pitching help and another hitter.
The question: is it worth giving up some of their top kids for veterans who can help them reach the play-offs this season?
With so many teams still undecided on whether they are buyers or sellers, the next month could be extremely interesting: a five-game losing streak could shift the narrative for several teams, making high-cost, season-changing players available for those willing to pay – with cash or top prospects.
poberjuerge@thenational.ae
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