Improbable Northern Ireland stand on brink of unbelievable achievement

Richard Jolly takes stock of the remarkable run by Northern Ireland in Euro 2016 qualifying, which is within reach of being capped by a trip to their first major international tournament since 1986.

Northern Ireland’s Kyle Lafferty celebrates a goal during a Euro 2016 qualifying match last month against Hungary. Charles McQuillan / Getty Images / September 7, 2015

The improbable became reality last month. A land that is a windy outpost in north-west Europe, whose football team are rarely given a chance of qualifying for a major tournament, did so. Seeded fifth in their group, they may win it.

They did not just secure progression, but did so at the expense of one of Europe’s success stories from last year’s World Cup and in a group that also featured an in-form team from the east of the continent.

And now another could emulate them. Northern Ireland’s story may lack the romance of Iceland’s rise. For starters, they have already competed in three World Cups, in 1958, 1982 and 1986.

While Iceland’s population is a mere 323,000, Northern Ireland’s is a comparatively huge 1.8 million. And while the Icelanders excelled in a glamour group after being pooled with Netherlands, third in the World Cup, the Czech Republic and Turkey, the eventual verdict may be that Michael O’Neill’s side were lucky with the draw.

Yet when the names were unveiled, it would have been a logical assumption that Thursday night's game in Belfast was the occasion when Greece would clinch their place in Euro 2016.

Instead a team who were a penalty shoot-out away from a place in the World Cup quarter-finals have gone into meltdown, losing home and away against Faroe Islands and taking a mere three points from eight games.

They prop up a group Northern Ireland top, just ahead of Romania. Win Thursday, or in Finland on Sunday, and a 30-year wait will end.

The fact that they stand on the brink of history is not merely a reflection of the failings of others. It is an extraordinary feat, made all the greater by the context. While this is Iceland’s golden generation, it is not Northern Ireland’s.

If they are to reach France next summer, they may be the least gifted group there. Their resources are slender and three Northern Ireland-born players, the Catholics Darron Gibson, James McClean and Shane Duffy, are all in the Republic of Ireland squad.

O’Neill has galvanised the remaining group. It helped that a team with a reputation as poor travellers made an abrupt break with the past by starting with three successive victories, including away wins against Hungary and Greece.

In another respect, they are a team in keeping with their recent history. Northern Ireland tend to be disproportionately dependent on one scorer. In the Euro 2008 qualifying campaign, it was David Healy, whose 13-goal tally was a record, not merely for Northern Ireland, but for anyone. Now it is Kyle Lafferty.

He has delivered seven goals in a group where the next most prolific player is the Northern Ireland centre-back, Gareth McAuley, who has struck three times from set pieces. It is all the more remarkable as the Norwich City forward has only mustered four club goals in the same period.

It makes it all the more worrying that Lafferty is suspended for what has become Northern Ireland’s biggest game since 1986. So, too, are right-back Conor McLaughlin and Chris Baird, who picked up two bookings within the same passage of play in last month’s 1-1 draw with Hungary.

Baird is a stalwart but Lafferty is the biggest loss. The three other specialist strikers in the squad – Will Grigg, Billy Mckay and Josh Magennis – are all yet to score an international goal. Grigg plays in England’s third-tier League One, the other pair in Scotland.

And the composition of O’Neill’s squad illustrates what an achievement it would be for Northern Ireland to qualify. Six ply their trade in Scotland, three in League Two, two in League One and the veteran Aaron Hughes in Australia. Only McAuley, Chris Brunt, Jonny Evans and Steven Davis are Premier League regulars.

Northern Ireland may have underachieved when slipping to 129th in the Fifa world rankings three years ago but, with such personnel, their subsequent overachievement has been all the greater. And now they stand on the brink.

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