Much like underachieving in major tournaments, getting carried away is a national sport in England. Gareth Southgate has impressed in so many respects that it is worth remembering he has won only two of his five games in charge of the national team.
Plenty of boxes have been ticked, but the one marked ‘results’ is not among them. That would have been different but for the two late goals Spain scored to secure a draw in November or Lukas Podolski’s thunderbolt of a winner for Germany when England were the more coherent side on Wednesday.
Encouragement can come from friendlies. Competitive games have to produce results. Qualification should be a procession to the 2018 World Cup for England. Lithuania may have eased England’s path to Russia by drawing with Slovenia and Scotland, but they have lost their last two games by an aggregate score of 7-0. Southgate’s men start as hot favourites on Sunday.
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Qualifying has tended to be a forte of England sides. Southgate’s attempts to change the culture and the tactics relate more to failures on the major stages. A man who won 57 caps and spent three years in charge of the Under 21s is nevertheless looking to make a break with the past.
Southgate is shaping up as the quiet revolutionary. He is seeking to end the English obsession with the captaincy. He will grant the armband to a fourth player in as many games, even if that is partly because Jordan Henderson is injured and Gary Cahill suspended. But the dropped Wayne Rooney can testify that a status as leader affords no protection when it comes to selection.
Cahill’s absence highlights Southgate’s principal dilemma: whether to persist with the shape that surprised Germany. England had not fielded a back three since 2006 before Southgate unveiled a 3-4-2-1 system in Dortmund.
Perhaps England do not possess a suitably good three centre-backs. The golden generation had an abundance of talent at the back – John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Sol Campbell, Jamie Carragher and Ledley King – and their successors possess rather less. Perhaps they do not require a trio against Lithuania, which may be just as well.
Minus Cahill and the injured pair of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling, Southgate has few options, though Michael Keane made an assured debut against Germany, when John Stones was rested, and Ben Gibson could become the fourth of his U21 charges to get a senior bow in two games. When Henderson is available, Eric Dier may be able to take up his Tottenham position in defence.
It is easy to detect the influence of Mauricio Pochettino and Antonio Conte in Southgate’s formation. It also harks back to a time when England produced more savvy sides. Southgate featured frequently when the tactically excellent Glenn Hoddle played 3-5-2. He played in the Euro ’96 semi-final when Terry Venables adopted the same system, even if Steve McManaman and Darren Anderton were wingers masquerading as wing-backs.
As Bobby Robson brought in a third centre-back during the 1990 World Cup, the paradox is England, where the back three has been held in most suspicion, have had a trio of central defenders in both of their last two semi-finals.
Southgate’s issue on Sunday is how to accommodate his attacking midfielders. Selecting Raheem Sterling, Dele Alli and Adam Lallana would be simple if he reverted to 4-2-3-1. In 3-4-2-1, either one begins on the bench or Lallana starts in a deeper role.
But if a man seeking change looks for another lesson from history, Robson’s midfielders in 1990 – David Platt, Paul Gascoigne and Chris Waddle – were all attack-minded. Playing more defenders is not automatically defensive.
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