The temptation after every draw is to ask if it is a point gained or two dropped. Arsene Wenger highlighted the inconclusive nature of Arsenal’s stalemate at Stoke City by arguing it was both. “It’s a positive result. But we missed two points,” he said.
The Frenchman was doubly right. Arsenal avoided defeat at a venue where they usually lose. They did so without four of their first-choice midfield, in Mesut Ozil, Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin. They showed some of the attributes, such as character and resilience, which they have been deemed lacking in past years.
And yet they did not win, just as they did not in Wednesday's rather more action-packed 3-3 draw at Anfield against Liverpool. Two chances to make a statement in the title race have eluded them. Arsenal remain a point ahead of Manchester City whereas they could have been overhauled this week, but they have not produced a result that bears the hallmark of champions on their travels. They demolished Leicester City 5-2 on the road in September, but at a time when most wrongly thought Claudio Ranieri's team were an early season aberration who would fade from contention.
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Arsenal have accumulated points without fully imposing their authority on this most closely congested of title races. That is partly a product of the fixture list. Their toughest away games were backloaded, most coming in 2016. They have weathered two this week. They still have to visit Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, West Ham United and Manchester City, in that order. Their chances of winning a first title in 12 years will be determined in those five games.
Take 10 points or more and they will surely be crowned champions. Take five or fewer and it is almost certain they will not. End up with something in between, such as seven or eight, and it could go either way. Whichever, May’s trip to the Etihad Stadium looks pivotal.
The context renders those five fixtures all the more significant. There were many among the Arsenal support who had resigned themselves – albeit, in some cases, amid noisy complaints – that Wenger’s reign would continue with an endless sequence of third- and fourth-place finishes. Previous title tilts, in 2008, 2010, 2014, have nonetheless culminated in familiar surroundings. The 2003/04 Invincibles are unrivalled in history and unmatched by their successors in Arsenal shirts, who have been unable to win the Premier League, with or without losing any games.
Then an extraordinary opportunity has presented itself. It is the product of progress; of finally signing a high-class goalkeeper, in Petr Cech; of belatedly developing the nous to use a defensive midfielder, in Coquelin (when fit); of abandoning the fixation with youth to field a core in their late twenties or early thirties; of a Wenger-esque faith in a flair player, in Ozil, being reward; of individual improvement, whether Hector Bellerin or Olivier Giroud; of a greater resolve on the road, which they began to demonstrate in the second half of last season.
But it is also a chance fashioned by others’ failures. Chelsea’s capitulation has caught everyone by surprise, but they are unlikely to be as abject again. Manchester United are underachievers who will be able to wield a vast budget again in the summer and ought to improve, especially if Louis van Gaal is no longer their manager. City would be a more formidable proposition under Pep Guardiola. Liverpool should benefit from spending longer under Jurgen Klopp and importing more of his preferred players.
The title may be won this season with under 80 points, for the first time this millennium, before the bar is raised again next year. Others have created a void, with their missteps and mistakes. Arsenal could fill it, fundamentally changing the narrative of the second half of Wenger’s career, or they could reinforce his critics’ cases by passing the chance up.
Adversity, in the form of the ever-present injuries, would be a reasonable explanation that some would still brand an excuse. Draws, such as those at Liverpool and Stoke, were respectable but not decisive. And so it seems that Arsenal have five games to decide their destiny.
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