Seven games – or just under a fifth of the way – into the Premier League season, and predicting the destination of the title is as tough as it was at the start of the campaign.
Five points separate the top seven with all the expected contenders – and Everton – in place. Every team in that top group could reasonably expect to be challenging at the end of the season.
Manchester City have been the most impressive in terms of dominant performances, but their 2-0 defeat at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday emphasised that each team has flaws. With City it is the defence.
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Last season was an example of the many factors that can decide a title race. Leicester City won the title by 10 points, but the gap in quality between the top sides was not huge. Leicester and Tottenham had strong campaigns which were both rarely affected by injury.
In fact, Leicester’s title triumph is a story of goals at just the right time and fate falling for them, along with what might end up being career-best seasons for players such as Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez.
Whoever wins the 2016/17 title will need some of that luck, few injuries, and their best players in form.
But another obvious factor that can elevate one team above the rest can be seen in the stats of Liverpool and Manchester United last season.
Liverpool scored 63 goals – nearly as many as each of the top three – and finished eighth. United scored one more than 17th placed Sunderland, yet finished fifth.
Aesthetically, Liverpool played much better football last season, but they struggled defensively. Everything starts with the defence.
This season, Tottenham have started where they left off in defence. They conceded just 35 goals last season and have only let in three in seven games this season, with four clean sheets. Keeping a clean sheet against a City side who had previously scored at a rate of three per game highlighted the importance of Tottenham’s full-backs.
This might be the most important position in modern football, but the full-back is expected to have the energy to run up and down the flank for 90 minutes as well as the ability to know what to do in attacking positions and the technique to put in a decent cross.
Defensively, they are almost always in direct opposition with the opponent’s fastest players.
The example of players such as Pablo Zabaleta and Branislav Ivanovic shows the level of consistency and fitness needed as a top Premier League full-back. Each player has declined drastically from being arguably the best right-back in the league at a certain point.
Gary Neville returned from injury in 2011 and was so off the pace in the one game he played for United that he effectively retired immediately.
Tottenham’s Danny Rose and Kyle Walker are arguably the best full-back duo currently in the league. They have all the necessary attributes and are pivotal to their team’s system.
So, as we look for fine margins that might separate one title contender from another, Tottenham’s full-backs might just be the two most important players in this title race.
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