England have gone from the most prolific to the least. Their average of 4.62 goals per game in Euro 2020 qualifying was unrivalled. It is now down to 0.6 in the Nations League, the joint lowest in the top tier.
If one campaign has produced 37 goals and another three, it speaks in part to the superior standard of opposition in the Nations League.
It highlights the circumstances that have hampered England, who looked rusty in September, have been patched up throughout the campaign and were deprived of Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford, two who might have injected incision, in Sunday’s 2-0 defeat to Belgium.
It reflects, though, on the systemic switch from 4-3-3 to 3-4-3, the sacrificing of the side’s designated attacking midfielder to add another centre-back, both despite and because too few of the candidates are fully convincing.
Gareth Southgate has suggested there will be no return to the shape that rendered England more entertaining and open.
In a way, the loss in Leuven supported his argument. England conceded twice to long-range shots, one deflected, one a contentious free kick. They have only let in two other goals, both penalties, in 10 games.
Away from home against the planet’s top-ranked team, they only conceded one clear-cut chance inside the penalty area, when Jordan Pickford made a fine second-half save from Romelu Lukaku.
Defences tend to win tournaments. The five World Cup winners this century conceded a combined total of 17 goals in 35 games en route to glory. The last four European champions let in 13 in 25 matches between them. Southgate has become more ambitious in his rhetoric, talking of England wanting to beat and be the world’s best, and more defensive in his tactics.
The strategy is underpinned by fact. There is a logic, too, to rationalising that England’s gifted group of attackers will continue to create chances and that, in games of fewer opportunities, they have the prowess in front of goal to score enough, even if has not been supported by their sterility in the Nations League.
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Belgium v England player ratings
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BELGIUM RATINGS: Thibaut Courtois, 6 – His 80th appearance for Belgium and a pretty quiet one, though he was beaten when Harry Kane’s header went past him, only to be cleared by Lukaku. AFP -
Toby Alderweireld, 6 – Superb defending to deny Grealish at the front post following a Trippier cross, though was guilty of dropping deep in the second half and inviting England pressure. EPA -
Jason Denayer, 6 - Played as the anchor behind Vertonghen and impressed. Marshalled Kane well in the first half, but was under a lot of pressure in the second. AP -
Jan Vertonghen, 7 –Enjoyed a good tussle against both Grealish and Mount and even showed off with a roulette before half-time. AP -
Thomas Meunier, 6 - Was always an attacking outlet on the right when Belgium looked to counter on the break in the second half, though sometimes looked like a rabbit in the headlights going forward. PA -
Youri Tielemans, 7 – Opened the scoring with a well-struck but deflected effort from the edge of the area. Looked effortless in the middle and always dangerous going forward. AP -
Axel Witsel, 6 – Looked tired at times but still managed to combine well with Tielemans in the middle, playing the deeper of the two. A strong and physical presence. EPA -
Thorgan Hazard, 6 – Looked to be one of Belgium’s weaker links, though in his defence was asked to play as a wing-back. Always looked lively with the ball at his feet but never looked comfortable defending. PA -
Kevin De Bruyne, 7 – Earned the free-kick that saw Belgium double their lead., though he appeared to kick Declan Rice rather than the other way round. One of his quieter games, but always a threat. AFP -
Dries Mertens, 6 – He scored with a fantastic free-kick from 25 yards to double Belgium’s lead and was a threat in the first hour. England did well to keep him quiet in the second half. PA -
Romelu Lukaku, 7 – Was heavily involved at both ends in the first half in a crucial two-minute period. First, he held the ball up to play in Tielemans for the first goal before clearing off his line from Kane’s header. Lead the line well. PA -
SUB: Dennis Praet, N/A – Replaced Mertens and impressed with his passing ability, with one delivery with the outside of his boot particularly impressive. AFP -
ENGLAND RATINGS: Jordan Pickford, 6 – Got close to Tielemans’ opener despite the shot taking a deflection off Tyrone Mings in front of him. Then took a step to his left before diving to his right, which might have prevented him from getting to the second. AFP -
Kyle Walker, 5 – Played at the right of the back three and was forced to tuck in more than he would like. That said, he still managed to get forward on occasion. PA -
Eric Dier, 4 – Was guilty of playing a dangerous pass from the back that was seized by Belgium and lead to the opening goal. Was guilty of giving the ball away too often. Reuters -
Tyrone Mings, 5 – A solid performance from England’s left-sided centre-back. Comfortable on the ball and did a good job keeping Lukaku quiet for the most part. Reuters -
Kieran Trippier, 5 – A solid but not spectacular performance from Trippier, who got better as the game went on. Always a threat from set pieces, but perhaps not dynamic enough in that wing-back position. Reuters -
Declan Rice, 5 –Was overrun for much of the first half but managed to get his foot on the ball a bit more in the second. AFP -
Jordan Henderson, 5 – Didn’t do a lot wrong but as a partnership, the Henderson-Rice axis didn’t really work. Getty -
Ben Chilwell, 5 – Playing in a wingback position, the Chelsea defender was a source of crosses in the first half hour but he was forced off with an injury before the break. AFP -
Mason Mount, 6 – Playing in a front three didn’t really suit Mount, though he came close with a header having evaded Meunier just before the break, and then contributed a clever flick to set up Kane in the second half. AP -
Jack Grealish, 7 – Continued his promising form for England and imposed himself on the game, running at defenders and breaking between the lines. Came close following some excellent movement at the front post but was denied by Alderweireld, and then again with a shot that went just over. EPA -
Harry Kane, 6 – Came close with a superb header under pressure that was saved on the line by Lukaku, but was often marshalled by several defenders. EPA -
SUBS: Bukayo Saka, 7 – Looked impressive when he came on. Slick passing and liked to get forward, he linked well with Grealish. EPA -
Harry Winks, 6 – England needed a bit more attacking intent in the second half and Winks played too safe at times, though he did look good on the ball. PA -
Jadon Sancho, 5 – Was brought on to replace Trippier in the wing-back position and he looked a bit lost. Needed to play further forward. AFP -
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 5 – Came on to play on the right of England’s attack and didn’t see much of the ball. PA
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That Rashford has only played 162 minutes of a possible 450 and Jadon Sancho just 153 is a factor. England have often been shorn of sharpness. On Sunday, they lacked the speed required to complement Harry Kane. When the captain dropped into midfield, they needed fast runners to go beyond him and, with Sterling sidelined and Sancho benched, they had none.
Jack Grealish was rightly lauded for a display of confidence and impudence, dribbling and one outrageous flick. He has shed the status of a cause celebre by winning over Southgate. The question no longer feels if Grealish is in the final squad, but if he is in eventual team.
The issue lay in the balance of the front three. Grealish and Mason Mount had argued they can play together, but it requires the Chelsea man to operate in a midfield berth. Grealish made one predator’s run, across the box, to draw a save from Thibaut Courtois but he is not a natural inverted winger; Sterling, Rashford and Sancho offer the promise of more goals.
And should Grealish leapfrog into the starting 11, it leaves Southgate with a choice of only one of the other three and a potentially lopsided front trio, with the man on the right often the most advanced.
It comes back to a systemic change devised when Grealish was a fringe figure. Either 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-1-3 could accommodate him, Kane and two wingers. But it strips England of their third centre-back at a point when their quickest central defender, Joe Gomez, is out. For Southgate, the decision is between defence and attack, caution or audacity.
