What happens if Iran withdraw from the World Cup – and will the UAE or Iraq replace them?

As tensions continue to escalate following the US-Israel attacks in Iran on Saturday, the eyes of the sporting world have inevitably turned to the 2026 World Cup finals, and if Iran will take their place in it.

This year's tournament is being jointly held in North America – the USA, Canada and Mexico – in an expanded 48-team format. As hosts, the USA automatically qualified; Iran did so via qualification in Asia.

Hostilities show no signs of abating after Iran confirmed the death of its supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, as well as other government and military officials, in joint US-Israeli strikes.

US-Iran latest: At least 31 killed in Israeli airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon

LiveAt least 31 killed in Israeli airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon

In response, Iran launched its own military campaign, targeting US assets across the Middle East, including the UAE, and in Israel. Attacks continue daily across the region, with US monitors saying the conflict could stretch into days or weeks.

If Iran were to withdraw from the tournament or be banned from taking part, Iraq and the UAE will be the most likely beneficiaries, although it is not a given.

Fifa's response

Football's governing body has said it is monitoring events, but that it was “premature to comment in detail” on whether Iran will play at this summer's finals.

“We had the finals draw in Washington in which all teams participated, and our focus is on a safe World Cup with all the teams participating,” Fifa's secretary general Mattias Grafstrom said on Saturday following the International Football Association Board's annual general ‌meeting in Cardiff, Wales.

“We will continue to communicate as we always do with three [host] governments as we always do in any case. Everybody will be safe.”

A Fifa World Cup trophy is displayed at the Akron Stadium, where it arrived as the second part of its tour in Zapopan, Mexico on February 28, 2026. AFP

What happens if Iran withdraws?

According to Fifa regulations, any participating member association that withdraws from the 2026 World Cup is subject to fines of up to CHF500,000 (Dh2.39 million), will have to reimburse team preparation money as well as any other tournament‑related payments.

Article 6.2 of the Fifa World Cup 2026 regulations states: “Any Participating Member Association that withdraws from the Fifa World Cup 26 no later than 30 days before the first match of the final competition shall be fined at least CHF250,000 by the Fifa Disciplinary Committee.

“Any Participating Member Association that withdraws from the Fifa World Cup 26 fewer than 30 days before the first match of the final competition shall be fined at least CHF500,000 by the FIFA Disciplinary Committee.

“Participating Member Associations that withdraw from the Fifa World Cup 26 at any time will be required to reimburse the team preparation money as well as any other tournament‑related contribution payments that they received from Fifa.”

It adds that the disciplinary committee may also impose additional measures including expelling the member association from future Fifa tournaments “and/or the replacement of the Participating Member Association with another member association”.

If a team withdraws or is expelled after the 2026 World Cup begins, Fifa regulations allow for forfeiture of matches (3–0 defeats) or, if early enough in the group stage, results being annulled.

However, once the tournament is under way, no new team is inserted. The competition continues with the adjusted standings.

Could the UAE or Iraq replace Iran?

As things stand, Iran are slated to play at the World Cup. Iran punched their ticket to the 2026 finals after topping Group A in Asian qualification with 26 points. The UAE finished third in that group to enter a play-off tournament held in Qatar, but could finish only second.

Iran are scheduled to play Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt in Group G. Two of the games are set for Los Angeles, one in Seattle.

Mehdi Taj, president of Iran's football federation, has said he does not know if the national team can play at the World Cup following the US-Israeli strikes in his country.

“What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Taj told sports portal Varzesh3, an Iranian sports news website, as reported by the Associated Press.

If Iran choose to withdraw from the tournament or is expelled – Iran is among the 39 countries subject to US President Donald Trump’s expanded travel ban – Fifa’s regulations allow a replacement team to be nominated rather than leaving the slot vacant.

Typically, the allocation is chosen from the same federation, in this case the Asian Football Confederation, to keep the regional allocation slot balanced. It's important to note that this is not a codified rule, and is made at Fifa's discretion.

Iran are one of eight teams from Asia to have qualified outright for the 2026 finals. Iraq could potentially join them if they can successfully navigate an inter-confederation play-off on March 31 against either Suriname or Bolivia.

If Iraq lose that play-off and Iran do withdraw, it could, potentially, pave the way for the UAE to take part in only a second global finals, though it is no formality.

How so?

The UAE finished third in their group in the third round of Asian qualifying for the World Cup, behind Iran and Uzbekistan.

As a result, the UAE entered a fourth round of qualifying featuring two groups of three played in two central locations.

The national team were paired with Qatar and Oman in Group A.

A nerve-shredding 2-1 comeback win over the Omanis in their first match meant that the UAE only had to avoid defeat to hosts Qatar to qualify for the World Cup finals for the first time since 1990.

A controversial 2-1 defeat sealed Qatar's place in North America and meant the UAE entered another play-off, where they lost to Iraq, runners-up from Group B, 3-2 on aggregate.

Of the Asian teams that did not qualify outright for the World Cup, the UAE are the highest-ranked team (58).

But as per its own regulations, Fifa can replace any team that withdraws, but the rule book does not specify an automatic replacement based solely on runners-up status or ranking, or even confederation.

Has a team withdrawn from a World Cup before?

Yes. The most chaotic tournament, in terms of withdrawals, was at the 1950 finals held in Brazil.

Turkey, Scotland and India qualified for the tournament, mostly because several countries in Asia, Europe and South America refused to even take part in qualifying. Turkey, Scotland and India all withdrew before the start of that World Cup, citing the cost of travel and player registration issues.

Portugal, who had lost to Spain in qualifying, were invited to replace Turkey, but turned down the chance, again citing the cost of travel. Portugal were not automatically entitled to the spot; Fifa simply selected the most logical European replacement.

France also withdrew after qualification, citing travel costs and scheduling issues. Fifa invited Portugal again, but they declined.

Ultimately, no replacement was inserted for either Turkey, Scotland or India, and the tournament proceeded with fewer teams (13 instead of 16).

At the 1938 World Cup, Austria qualified but withdrew after its annexation by Nazi Germany. That time, Fifa did not invite a replacement. Sweden, Austria's opponents, were given a bye into the next round.