Favourites Manchester City have fatigue fears going into Champions League draw

Group-stage line-ups will be announced on Thursday in Monaco with shadow of expanded Club World Cup on horizon

Manchester City players celebrate after their Champions League final win over Inter Milan at Atatuerk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, on June 10, 2023. Getty

The most glamorous tournament in club football, as the Uefa Champions League likes to think of itself, stages its annual appetiser on Thursday afternoon, the draw for its group stage. Amid the familiar red-carpet rituals, many old habits will be broken.

The European Cup, as it still gets called, has one important novelty, a fresh title-holder in Manchester City. It has notable absentees among the challengers. As the names of clubs are drawn from bowls into their eight groups of four, there will be no mention of usual regulars such as Liverpool, Juventus, Chelsea or Ajax, who all fell short of qualifying.

For the first time in two decades, the competition’s starting grid has no place for either of the two players who left the 21st century’s biggest mark on the competition.

Lionel Messi, four times a winner, and Cristiano Ronaldo, with his five gold medals, both now play outside Uefa’s orbit. As that illustrious pair keep distant watch on how a new Champions League season unfolds, they cannot help but think the equivalent North American and Asian tournaments they, as figureheads for Inter Miami and Al Nassr, are involved in are moving in closer step to Europe’s Big Cup.

They are entitled to ask how long, in the changing landscape of club football, the Uefa Champions League, a huge global broadcast phenomenon, will keep its status at club football’s summit? In the summer of 2025, an expanded Club World Cup, with 32 teams involved, will be launched. The various continental tournaments being played out in the coming season represent chances for more clubs, from more corners of the game, to be part of this ambitious, Fifa-run show.

It is plausible that a 38-year-old Messi could be there in 2025, in his Miami jersey, if he continues to lift the performances of the Florida club in the way he has done since joining in July.

Ronaldo last week helped Al Nassr through the Asian Champions League play-offs, giving the Saudi Arabian club their shot at the continental crown and with it an opportunity to join Al Hilal and Urawa Red Devils, the last two Asian club champions, in the enlarged, 2025 Club World Cup.

So much for the medium-term horizon. At Thursday’s draw ceremony in Monaco, clubs such as City, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona will focus less on the fact that, because of the increasing attraction of club football in the Gulf and the US, they approach this European Cup having waved goodbye to the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Karim Benzema, Neymar – all in the Saudi Pro League – and Sergio Busquets, now in Miami. Their concern is potential group stage hazards that can impact even on so-called superclubs with favourable seedings.

Madrid, the European Cup’s all-time most successful club and winners for the 14th time in 2022, could end up in a group with both City and AC Milan. All three were semi-finalists in May, but because of the seeding system that favours champions from the leading domestic leagues and ranks the rest according to performances in Europe over a longer period, Milan are in lowly Pot 3, and Madrid, runners up in La Liga last term, in Pot 2.

Man City 1 Inter Milan 0: Champions League final ratings

MANCHESTER CITY RATINGS: Ederson - 8. Had a couple of shaky moments in the first half, but made the biggest save of the game with his legs to deny Lukaku late on, and again to deny a header at the death. Getty

Manuel Akanji - 6. Took matters into his own hands by taking aim from long range on the stroke of half time, but he failed to keep his effort on target. Breathed a huge sigh of relief after Martinez failed to beat Ederson from close range due to his error. EPA

Ruben Dias - 7. Made an inch-perfect tackle to stop Dzeko from running through on goal in the 14th minute. Made a last-ditch clearance after Dimarco’s effort came off the crossbar in the second half. Getty

Nathan Ake - 7. Coming off the back of an injury, Ake provided an assured display at left-back and dealt well with the threat of Dumfries. Did well to intercept Barella’s first-time cross into the danger area with his head in the 14th minute. Getty

John Stones - 8. An impeccable performance from Stones in his new hybrid role. The Englishman defended well and stepped into midfield to help mop up counterattacks. AFP

Rodri - 8. Was having a tough game due to his inability to help City dictate play from the middle of the field. He turned things around by grabbing the final’s solitary goal with a low effort from the edge of the penalty area. AFP

Bernardo Silva - 7. Not as influential in attack as he was against Real Madrid in the semi-final. Had the first attempt at goal in the final, but he failed to find the top corner with his effort. Had a hand in the goal as his cross was deflected into the path of Rodri to sweep home. EPA

Jack Grealish - 6. Not one of his best outings for Pep Guardiola’s side, but he did well to limit Dumfries’ forays forward. Took the wrong decision to have an effort at goal when he had the chance to whip in a dangerous cross into the penalty area halfway through the first half. PA

Kevin De Bruyne - 6. Slipped when he had the first real chance to link up with Haaland around the Inter Milan penalty area in the 24th minute. Unlucky to be forced off with an injury on the biggest night of his career in the 35th minute. AFP

Ilkay Gundogan - 6, A quiet but solid game from Gundogan in the middle of the field. The German was forced to sit deep and help the Premier League champions control proceedings from deep. AFP

Erling Haaland - 6, A rare night without a goal for Haaland, but he kept the Italians backline on their toes for 90 minutes. Had his first attempt on goal in the 26th minute, but Onana was equal to his effort. Getty

SUBS: Phil Foden (De Bruyne, 38') - 6. Had a good chance to put the game to bed, but failed to beat Onana when he was played through on goal in the 78th minute. Reuters

Kyle Walker (Stones, 82) - N/A. The right-back helped City hold on to the lead as the Italians searched for an equaliser. EPA

INTER MILAN RATINGS: Andre Onana - 7. Called into action for the first time by Haaland in the 26th minute, and he provided a good save to keep the tie level. Stopped Foden from making it two with a fantastic save in the second half. AFP

Matteo Darmian - 6. Had a good game except for one costly error. Could have done better to close up the space Rodri had in the build-up to the English side’s decisive goal. EPA

Francesco Acerbi - 8. Brilliant on the night as he stayed close to Haaland and ensured the Norwegian didn’t get enough clear-cut chances to do the damage. AFP

Alessandro Bastoni - 7. Did well to block Stones’s cross in the 63rd minute. Showed tremendous composure to stop Haaland from running through on goal in the 67th minute. Getty

Denzel Dumfries - 5. Not at his attacking best on the night and was beaten on a number of occasions by Grealish in defence. Brought a good attacking move to an end with his indecisiveness in the first half. AP

Federico Dimarco - 7. Crucial to Inter Milan’s attacking play in the first half as he repeatedly played in dangerous crosses. Thought he had grabbed an equaliser in the 70th minute, but his header came off the bar. AP

Marcelo Brozovic - 7. A good performance from the experienced Croatian in the middle of the field. He helped the Italians stop City from playing their free-flowing football. Blazed an effort high and wide from the edge of the penalty area in the 19th minute. AP

Nicolo Barella - 6. Lacked the quality to provide the final touch or pass in attack. Would feel he could have done better when he failed to hit the target with a first-time effort after pouncing on an Ederson error. AFP

Hakan Calhanoglu - 4. A near-invisible performance from the Turkish midfielder on a night the Italians needed him to help unlock Guardiola’s backline. He struggled to create openings for his teammates. AFP

Lautaro Martinez - 4. Another player that could have done better with his decision-making on a big night. Aimed for goal and failed to beat Ederson when he could have passed the ball to Lukaku or Brozovic. AFP

Edin Dzeko - 5. Worked hard and brought his teammates into play with excellent hold-up play in the first half, but Manchester City defenders took advantage of his lack of pace to stop him. AP

SUBS: Romelu Lukaku (Dzeko,57') - 3. Unlucky to unknowingly block Dimarco’s goal-bound effort in the 70th minute. Forced Ederson into a routine save two minutes later. Should have brought the Italians level, but he could only head straight at Ederson when he had the whole goal to aim at. AFP

Robin Gosens (Bastoni, 76) - N/A. Overcooked his cross when he had the chance to find a blue and black jersey in the penalty area. Did well to find Lukaku with a header into the danger area in the 89th minute. AFP

Raoul Bellanova (Dumfries, 76) - N/A. Put in a number of crosses after coming on, one of which led to Lukaku’s headed chance that he failed to convert. Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Calhanoglu, 84) - N/A. Danilo D’ Ambrosio (Damian, 84) - N/A. AFP

Among the "outsiders" in Pot 4 – the lowest seeded clubs – are Newcastle United.

Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and AC Milan could all end up caged into a group with upwardly-mobile Mapgies. Only two teams can progress to the knockouts.

Newcastle’s last outing in the Champions League was in a losing pre-qualifier 20 years ago. For Union Berlin, also in Pot 4, there is no precedent at all. Their climb from the second division in Germany to last season’s fourth place in the Bundesliga has taken four short years, and their presence, like that of a Newcastle transformed since 2021 by Saudi Arabian investment, speaks of shifting spheres of influence in elite club football.

With both Union and RB Leipzig in the draw, half of Germany’s contingent come from what, a generation ago, was part of East Germany, then a separate nation in the sporting shadow of the wealthier West.

City must start as favourites, albeit mindful that a key factor in the enduring appeal of the Uefa Champions League is an element of unpredictability: almost all its winners fail to repeat their success, year on year. Since 1990, only Real Madrid, with their sequence of three triumphs from 2016 to 2018, have retained the title.

Fatigue, as City’s manager Pep Guardiola keeps warning, is often an enemy to the holders because they are required to take part in more competitions because of their achievement.

One of those is the Club World Cup, still a short winter tournament for this year’s edition, but soon to turn a great deal larger – and keen to outshine Uefa's Champions League for glamour and truly global reach.