Lando Norris arrives in Qatar this weekend with the Formula One crown tantalisingly within his grasp.
The Briton could potentially be crowned champion on Sunday, but a maiden title that once looked assured is now anything but following last weekend's dramatic ending in Las Vegas.
The drivers' championship battle was turned on its head after the disqualification of Norris and Oscar Piastri at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, allowing race winner Max Verstappen to blow the title race wide open.
Both McLaren cars were kicked out for excessive plank wear, with the skid blocks below the minimum thickness, meaning Norris lost his points for second place and Piastri for his fourth spot.
The implications are significant, with race winner Red Bull's four-time champion Verstappen benefiting the most from this decision.
State of play
Norris arrives in Doha leading both his teammate Piastri and Red Bull's Verstappen by 24 points.
With 58 points left across the Qatar sprint, main race and the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix season finale, this becomes a full three-way showdown and makes for a potentially dramatic finale at Yas Marina Circuit.
Can Norris seal the title in Saturday's sprint?
No. Even if he wins and Piastri and Verstappen finish out of the points that would lift the the Briton only 32 points clear, with 50 remaining.
Across the full Qatar weekend, there are 33 points on offer: eight in the sprint and 25 in the grand prix. That means the earliest Norris can win the championship is in the main race on Sunday, November 30.
To become world champion next weekend, Norris must finish the weekend with a lead of more than 25 points over both Piastri and Verstappen.
In practical terms, he needs to outscore whichever rival scores the most in Qatar by at least two points. If he does not achieve that, the title fight will continue to Abu Dhabi.
What Piastri and Verstappen need to do
Neither driver can realistically afford a slip-up with McLaren's Las Vegas disqualifications having given Verstappen a massive championship boost.
To stay in the title fight after Qatar, both Piastri and Verstappen must remain within 25 points of Norris. If the gap becomes 26 or more, Norris is champion.
If Piastri or Verstappen were then to win the season-closer in Abu Dhabi with Norris pointless the Briton would claim the crown on countback. Norris will have won eight races in 2025, with Piastri on seven and Verstappen on six.
Should Piastri win in Abu Dhabi and draw level with Norris' eight wins the Australian would lose out on second-place finishes – he has three to Norris's eight currently.
If Verstappen won he would miss out with one race win less than Norris.
Dutchman Verstappen has won the past two races in Qatar, and has taken the chequered flag in four of the past five Abu Dhabi grands prix, with his run broken last year by Norris.
Piastri has not topped the podium since winning the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort at the end of August.
Given the stakes, McLaren will be praying after last weekend's disastrous double disqualification that the old maxim – what happens in Las Vegas stays in Vegas – holds true.
