Can anyone stop Red Bull’s runaway locomotive charging to another world championship in 2023 as Max Verstappen continues his rampage through the record books?
After a record 15 victories in 2022, the pre-season testing time sheets (and acres of print that have emerged since) make the remarkable young Dutchman firm favourite yet again.
Paddock eyes reported a certain swagger down at the Honda-powered team after testing in Bahrain last week.
The Dutchman was so confident he only bothered to get in the car for two of the three days permitted.
Of course, pre-season’s time sheets can be fool’s gold. Some teams may be grandstanding to impress potential sponsors while others could actually be sandbagging.
But one fact appears to have cast iron credentials: Mercedes woes are set to continue. After their worst season in nine years they are struggling to understand their new car yet again.
Lead driver Lewis Hamilton and teammate George Russell both report balance issues.
The seven-time champion is in turmoil. Entering the final year of his contract without a new deal is a clear sign, some believe, of fears Mercedes will be uncompetitive yet again.
Russell described suggestions of Mercedes winning the opening race of the season in Bahrain on Sunday as “a bit of stretch”.
The team have been so desperate to save weight to improve competitiveness they are removing paint where they can. Hence the return to black carbon fibre.
Both Russell and boss Toto Wolf used the word “ultimately” when talking about the time scale for being competitive, suggesting it is somewhere over the horizon.
Some predict the Mercedes’ malaise runs so deep they may even fall out of the sport’s Big Three, overtaken by one of their own customer teams, Aston Martin.
Hamilton, Verstappen Bahrain testing - in pictures
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Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton takes part in Formula One pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir on February 23, 2023. AP -
Max Verstappen driving the Red Bull. Getty -
Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain drives his Mercedes under lights at Bahrain International Circuit. Getty -
Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc. AP -
Fernando Alonso of Spain tests his Aston Martin. Getty -
World champion Max Verstappen tests his Red Bull. Getty -
Scuderia AlphaTauri's Nyck de Vries prepares to drive. Getty -
Seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton in his Mercedes. Getty -
Nyck de Vries in his Scuderia AlphaTauri. Getty -
Valtteri Bottas in his Alfa Romeo. Getty -
Lewis Hamilton out on the track. Getty -
Monaco's Charles Leclerc of Ferrari. EPA -
Red Bull driver Max Verstappen. AP -
Lando Norris of Great Britain driving his McLaren. Getty -
Valtteri Bottas of Finland driving his Alfa Romeo. Getty -
Esteban Ocon of Alpine. Getty -
Dutch driver Max Verstappen of Red Bull. EPA -
Max Verstappen tests as the sun sets. AP -
Lewis Hamilton driving his Mercedes. Getty -
Max Verstappen of Red Bull arrives in the pitlane. EPA -
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner watches on day one of F1 testing. Getty -
Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton prepares to leave the pits. AFP -
Ferrari's Charles Leclerc during testing. Reuters
That would be good news for double champion Fernando Alonso, who has switched to green. After a string of career moves that have gone wrong, could the talented Spaniard finally be on an upwards trajectory?
The time sheets suggest Ferrari will take on the mantle of Red Bull challengers yet again
Maranello remains the conundrum it has always been, ruled by short-termism and stuck in an unending political maelstrom of its own making.
The latest drama surrounds the dismissal of the one man who had led them back to the winner’s circle, team boss Mattia Binotto.
Taking them into championship contention after the worst seasons in 40 years was not enough to avoid being pushed out.
Having built the fastest car in the pit lane, it’s fair to say 2022 was a championship thrown away by Ferrari as much as one won by Red Bull.
It is a telling statistic that Verstappen won more races when Charles Leclerc started from pole than the Monegasque did himself.
The Maranello pit wall was guilty of apocalyptic (and repeated) strategy errors; the drivers, including Leclerc, threw away victories and technical issues played their part too.
If there is an A to Z of mistakes not to make when challenging for a championship Maranello went through it.
Twelve pole starts show Maranello clearly have the keys to a championship challenge.
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Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, presents the trophy to the Abu Dhabi Formula One Grand Prix winner Max Verstappen of Red Bull last year. Photo: Mohamed Al Hammadi / UAE Presidential Court -
Max Verstappen celebrates victory in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit on November 20, 2022. All pictures Victor Besa / The National -
Max Verstappen on the podium with Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez -
Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez of Mercedes finished first and third -
Sebastian Vettel says goodbye and thank you to fans after his last race -
Fans celebrate Verstappen's victory -
Max Verstappen of Red Bull on his way to victory -
The start of the race at Yas Marina Circuit -
Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton in action before he was forced to retire -
F1 champion and race winner Max Verstappen dominated in Abu Dhabi, as he has for most of the season -
The Al Fursan aerial display team above Yas Marina Circuit before the start of the race
But Red Bull’s fallow years have not cost Christian Horner his job. And Toto Wolff survived a bigger disaster at Mercedes in 2022.
For some reason, Ferrari chief executive Benedetto Vigna lacked the will to support Binotto as Italy’s media howled for blood.
So in January, the long-time Ferrari servant was replaced by Alfa Romeo boss Frederic Vasseur.
The Frenchman is a highly-regarded engineer who has made Nico Rosberg, Hamilton (and perhaps most significantly Ferrari’s golden boy Leclerc) champion in the junior categories.
Yet his F1 management CV is solid but unremarkable. After in five years in charge of Sauber/Alfa Romeo, his only achievement for over $400m spent was a single fastest lap.
Reputedly one of his earliest decisions – in fact made in his first week in charge – was to axe a proposed Honda engine deal (the engine that is currently dominating F1 remember).
So take as a comparison fellow F1 minnows Alpha Tauri. In the same period (2018-2022), they scored one win, four podiums, two fastest laps and 402 points. Vasseur’s operation managed just 181 when points are directly linked to prize money.
Vigna has said he will take closer personal control but only time will tell whether putting his faith in Vasseur is another Ferrari misstep or a pivotal swing towards a competitive new era.
A lot in F1 depends upon it.
