The shock waves of Lewis Hamilton’s sensational victory in Brazil are still reverberating all the way across the world to Abu Dhabi.
And not least because it has dramatically increased the chances the most exciting — and bitter — championship in years will play out its very final chapter at Yas Marina in a month’s time.
A decisive factor could be the track itself not unlike Interlagos, which already has a reputation as a car breaker and driver frustrater.
Ask Fernando Alonso, stuck behind Russian also-ran Vitaly Petrov in 2010 for so long it wrecked his dreams of a third championship at the very last hurdle.
Or Hamilton who led the race in 2016, and indeed won, only to lose his crown to teammate Nico Rosberg who was second.
And that was before Yas united with F1 promoters Liberty to redraw crucial sections and inject turbo boost into lap times.
Seven bends have been redesigned to improve the racing. The point and squirt chicanes at either extreme have been ditched and replaced with wider circumference teardrop shaped hairpins.
At the southern end four corners have morphed into one single continuous banked hairpin 18 metres wide with lap times predicted to plummet by 10 seconds. The section that races under the track’s world famous hotel is now more flowing.
Yas has the same two DRS zones as Interlagos separated by a single chicane that was the setting for Hamilton’s race winning overtaking move.
But the remodelling triggered in February has also thrown in a giant unknown for F1 teams.
Their form depends on sophisticated computerised LIDAR surface scanners for their driver simulators which are so detailed they even pick up painted lines and grass.
A full circuit can take 80 hours to record. But teams have not had time to get them done since the track rebuild finished.
Teams have already contacted the circuit for the layout so their reserve drivers can spend countless hours thrashing around in the simulator looking for the slightest edge — as part of the sophisticated F1 AI war going on behind the scenes.
Then there is the engine battle. The Honda power plant used by Verstappen is less powerful when new but degrades less over it’s life.
In two gruelling races time Hamilton’s Mercedes may not still be capable of the awesome speeds it demonstrated in Brazil because it fades more quickly.
As for tyre wear, in Brazil expectations were flipped on their head yet again in a topsy turvy season.
Hamilton was overwhelming favourite three races ago in Austin and yet Verstappen won. Brazil appeared to favour the Dutchman but he was blown away by a Mercedes which had started last.
Pirelli, who supply tyres to the entire grid, revealed to The National only on Monday they have yet to receive race simulations from the teams to do their own analysis because of the track has changed.
Even so, a spokesman said speeds will inevitably go up because of the redesign but they are confident their three softest (and fastest) compounds will suit the conditions.
Interestingly, the same trio of tyres were used at Monaco, Azerbaijan and Russia. Both combatants dropped out in Azerbaijan but Verstappen won the other two.
Yas Marina Circuit renovations
Does that mean Red Bull will be favourites? Well, it’s difficult to tell. Mercedes struggle with their rear tyres and Red Bull the fronts.
As for the lessons from history: Verstappen won last year but Hamilton was returning early from a covid infection. Prior to that Mercedes had won every one of the previous six events.
And perhaps Saturday is now more important than Sunday. The last six Yas GPs have been won by the man who snared pole. But only twice in the last six has the Abu Dhabi winner been the champion.
Then there is the high grip track surface, British Graywacke aggregate, the same surface used in Bahrain where Hamilton won in March.
And so the statistics twist and turn in favour of one then the other.
Like Brazil two fast sectors in Yas favour Mercedes’ power but bookend a twisting middle sector more to Red Bull’s liking.
Only in South America it did not. Hamilton gained three-tenths in the first and third sections and then another tenth in the second where he was supposed to lose out.
Will it be the same in the marina section here in Yas?
And then there are the plummeting temperatures as the sun sets 20 minutes after the start of the twilight race — creating another handling headache for drivers of such temperamental thoroughbreds.
Above all, though, there is also the looming chance of a third collision between the two combatants. Unless Hamilton wins the next two races in Qatar and Saudi Arabia that would make his Dutch rival champion.
GROUPS
Group Gustavo Kuerten
Novak Djokovic (x1)
Alexander Zverev (x3)
Marin Cilic (x5)
John Isner (x8)
Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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