It is almost that time again. Every couple of seasons, when his latest contract is set to expire, there is a debate about whether Arsene Wenger will extend his stay as Arsenal manager.
Given that his deal comes to an end in a little more than five months, an announcement of some sort cannot be too far around the corner.
After winning nine major trophies in over 20 years of service, the general consensus is that Wenger will continue in the position for as long as he wants.
The 67-year-old Frenchman is something of a throwback in the sense that he, the manager, is the most powerful person at his club. It is difficult to envisage a situation in which either majority shareholder Stan Kroenke, chairman Chips Keswick or chief executive Ivan Gazidis ask him to step aside.
Put simply, if Wenger makes it clear he wants to remain in north London, he will be handed fresh terms.
The club’s fan base remains divided on whether he should stay or go. Wenger’s critics point to the fact that he has only won two FA Cups since 2004, although his supporters stress that he deserves more credit for continually keeping Arsenal in the Uefa Champions League before, during and after their relocation from Highbury to the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal face Southampton in the fourth round of this year’s FA Cup on Saturday.
The indications are that English football’s longest-serving manager will indeed put pen to paper on a new deal in the coming months. But that does not mean that Arsenal should put their succession planning to one side and forget about it until the day Wenger announces he is heading off into the sunset.
Manchester United, who are already on to their third manager of the post-Alex Ferguson era, provide a useful case study in what can go wrong.
Ferguson’s decision to retire in 2013 may have come as a slight surprise — the Scot stepped aside at the behest of his wife following the death of his sister-in-law — but the club must have known that the septuagenarian was not going to be around forever.
David Moyes was hand-picked as United’s next manager by his predecessor, but within a few months it was clear that he was significantly out of his depth.
Louis van Gaal then flattered to deceive during his two years at Old Trafford, while for all their signs of promise Jose Mourinho’s side are currently only sixth in the Premier League standings.
It was always going to be difficult for United to fill the vacuum left by Ferguson, but Arsenal must ensure they have plans in place for when Wenger does decide to call it a day. It is not simply about identifying an individual to follow in his footsteps but choosing a general direction of travel.
Arsenal could opt for a continuity candidate in the mould of Bournemouth’s Eddie Howe, a talented young coach who promotes attacking football and has already demonstrated a desire to stay in one place for a long period of time.
Conversely, a more experienced manager — not necessarily in terms of age but someone with a history of working with seasoned internationals — such as Juventus’s Max Allegri or Joachim Low may be favoured.
There is also an argument that a big personality such as Diego Simeone would be the best choice despite his contrasting style of play.
Regardless of the exact path Arsenal choose to go down, it is vital that they are proactive and work out what they intend to do long before Wenger departs. Selecting the Frenchman’s successor is too big a decision to leave until the last minute.
Rebuilding Newcastle
There are not many club owners in English football more unpopular than Mike Ashley.
The billionaire, who became Newcastle United’s majority shareholder in the summer of 2007, has presided over a largely disappointing decade at the helm of one of the biggest sides in the country. Last year’s relegation to the Championship was Newcastle’s second demotion within the space of seven seasons and led to another round of vociferous calls for him to depart.
Ashley remains in charge, however, though there are signs that he has finally begun to pay heed to the pleas for him to alter his approach. Rafa Benitez was appointed as manager in March and surprisingly opted to remain at St James’s Park despite their 18th-place finish in 2015/16, with the former Liverpool, Chelsea and Real Madrid boss having first sought assurances that he would be given a certain degree of autonomy in the role.
Not only has the Spaniard been handed full control of transfers, he has also been free to take the domestic cup competitions seriously — something that, to the immense frustration of the club’s fans, his predecessors never really felt able to do.
After naming a rotated but strong side in the FA Cup third-round victory over Birmingham City earlier this month, Newcastle will travel to Oxford United on Saturday full of confidence that they can advance to the last 16 of the competition for the first time since Ashley’s arrival.
That, together with the fact that Benitez’s charges were only narrowly defeated by Hull City on penalties in the quarter-finals of the League Cup, is a clear sign of progress.
Promotion back to the top flight remains the priority, but it is highly promising for Newcastle that Benitez is exerting his influence in more ways than one.
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