Dubai World Cup predictions: California Chrome has the class

California Chrome takes in the dit surface at the Meydan Racecourse. Mathea Kelley / Dubai Racing Club

DUBAI // Jerry Bailey, the jockey who has won the world’s most valuable race four times, said this week that the best American horse on dirt is the best in the world on the surface.

His theory will be put to the test when California Chrome pings out of Gate 9 and tries to secure an early position under regular rider Victor Espinoza.

America’s horse of the year may well be second-best in the United States to Shared Belief, who beat him in his prep last month, but he should be head and shoulders above his eight rivals on what he has achieved.

By pushing Shared Belief to within a length and a half, California Chrome has posted the sort of performance that, with a little improvement, should be good enough to win a normal Dubai World Cup.

The chestnut colt has matured and filled out his frame this year and should have improved on his run at Santa Anita, although he will need to have done, because it could be a bumpy ride from his wide draw.

In all four of his Grade 1 victories last year, California Chrome stalked the speed and then used his brilliant turn of foot to snatch the lead about 400 metres from the finish.

He will have a fight on his hands to maintain his position, though, with last year’s winner African Story, Japan Cup winner Epiphaneia and fellow American challenger Lea all aimed at the same spot.

Lea has been wound up to pitch perfection by Bill Mott, the conditioner responsible for the inaugural Dubai World Cup winner Cigar, and has the scope to improve to California Chrome’s capabilities.

Lea has looked in tremendous form at early morning track work at Meydan all week and should help push California Chrome towards an effort that is worthy of World Cup status.

A win may be asking a bit much for Lea, on his first trip abroad, even with the magic that jockey Joel Rosario brought to 2013 winner Animal Kingdom.

If both American horses falter on the international stage, Hokko Tarumae is the most likely to pick up the pieces. Hokko Tarumae finished last 12 months ago but is Japan’s horse of the year on the surface.

Japanese bloodstock is extremely strong and having had a severe bout of colic after last year’s race he would be a worthy winner.

It is almost impossible to discount Saeed bin Suroor, the Godolphin trainer who has won the World Cup six times and African Story and Prince Bishop should run big races, but ultimately fail.

Prediction 1: California Chrome 2: Hokko Tarumae 3: Lea.

Dubai Kahayla Classic

Looks like a wide open race with last year’s runner-up Djainka Des Forges heading the 15-runner field. The chestnut mare is again drawn wide but is expected to come out of the gates quickly to stay with the leading group. She should hold off Abu Alabyad and Valiant Boy, an interesting runner from the US and winner of 10 of his past 11 races.

1. Djainka Des Forges. 2. Abu Alabyad. 3. Valiant Boy.

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Godolphin Mile

How to beat Tamarkuz? Musabah Al Muhairi’s five year old has been one of the leading lights during the Dubai World Cup Carnival with three wins. He has been fortunate again with a draw on the rail and will be difficult to peg back. Sloane Avenue and Surfer could cause an upset but starting wide is a handicap. Bradester looks the best of the Americans.

1. Tamarkuz 2. Frankyfourfingers 3. Bradester

Dubai Gold Cup

French trainer Pia Brandt comes back to Dubai with Bathyrhon, who narrowly failed to land the Prix Cadran at Longchamp on Arc day in October. Freshened up since, the five year old could improve past Michael Owen’s Brown Panther, who is set to run a huge race. Nad Al Sheba Trophy-winner Almoonqith and Godolphin’s Ahzeemah are also leading players.

1. Bathyrhon 2. Brown Panther 3. Almoonqith

UAE Derby

Such has been the fanfare around Uruguayan Triple Crown winner Sir Fever that it would be bitterly disappointing if Charlie Appleby’s runner was not involved in the finish. Mike de Kock’s Mubtaahij made full use of Maftool’s absence from the Al Bastikiya to beat Sir Fever and the trio look set to fight out the finish again.

1. Golden ­Barows 2. Sir Fever 3. Mubtaahij

Al Quoz Sprint

Defending champion Amber Sky, who broke the track record last year, Caspian Prince and Distinctiv Passion could all set it up for the new kid on the block from Hong Kong, Peniaphobia. Stepper Point should run a huge race behind such pace and, although Sole Power has never won at Meydan, he may get a glorious tow. In such a scenario, if jockey Richard Hughes gets it right, he wins.

1. Peniaphobia 2. Sole Power 3. Stepper Point.

Dubai Golden Shaheen

Hong Kong has a strong hand in the Al Quoz Sprint, but it is hard to see them winning on dirt. Lucky Nine has been touted but he is an ageing sprinter who has won only one of his past six races. Rich Tapestry is talented but failed last year here before bleeding in America. US sprinters have won this race nine times, all on dirt, and the American ace Salutos Amigos looks the most likely to run his race.

1. Salutos Amigos 2. Big Macher 3. Lucky Nine.

Dubai Turf

The Grey Gatsby is the best horse in the race, having pushed dual Derby winner Australia all the way in the Irish Champion Stakes in September, and the long lay-off should not matter. Six of the 19 winners of this race have won without a prep in the same year. Farraaj could well be the proverbial dark horse. Euro Charline and the French pair of Solow and Cladocera can fight it out for third.

1. The Grey Gatsby 2. Farraaj 3. Solow

Dubai Sheema Classic

Dolniya can keep up a decent record for mares in what looks the classiest race of the night. She has the scope to improve past Flintshire, who finished ahead of her in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Harp Star was a place behind Dolniya in Paris in sixth and will benefit from Ryan Moore’s guidance. Designs On Rome might not stay, while Main Sequence’s late flourish could be telling.

1. Dolniya 2. Main Sequence 3. Flintshire.

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