Saeed Bin Suroor has done an admirable job this season at trying to maintain his long-held grasp on the Dubai World Cup Carnival trainers' title, but it may just slip loose tonight at Meydan's $1.83 million Super Saturday.
Godolphin's indefatigable servant has topped the Carnival trainers' standings for the past six seasons, but because of a Herculean feat of planning, a steadfast belief that he was doing the right thing and a good dose of luck, Mike De Kock stands just three wins adrift of his enduring rival with the big stakes left to play for.
Where Bin Suroor has always had the fall-back of being able to call on an almost limitless supply of blue-blooded thoroughbreds, it seems this season the stables at Al Quoz are a little threadbare.
Comb through the seven races to be staged at Meydan and it becomes immediately apparent that, for once, the most successful Emirati to saddle a thoroughbred is outgunned in his own backyard.
Last season Bin Suroor ruled Super Saturday, a fixture at which he has never failed to saddle a winner.
He had 12 runners and four winners and, for good measure, Hunter’s Light was chased home by stablemates Kassiano and Prince Bishop in the Al Maktoum Challenge round three.
How the balance of power has shifted this season. On Saturday night, it is De Kock who will field 12 runners across the seven thoroughbred races, in comparison to Bin Suroor’s eight.
Bin Suroor cannot rely on the tireless skills of his stable jockey either, as Kieren Fallon replaces Silvestre De Sousa, who lost his appeal against a two-day ban on Thursday and will miss Sunday’s meeting in Abu Dhabi.
It is clear we have finally reached equilibrium this season. De Kock has been extremely competitive in the trainers’ standings before, but that was from a position of inferiority – this season he has had for the first time more runners than his chief rival.
The South African trainer has so many bullets to fire tonight it is not inconceivable the two trainers could be on a level pegging with all to play for on the biggest stage of all at World Cup night in three weeks.
Shea Shea bids to break his third consecutive track record when he defends his title in the Meydan Sprint on his first start in the UAE since winning last season’s Al Quoz Sprint. Soft Falling Rain takes his chance at sprinting in the Mahab Al Shimaal, while the unbeaten Vercingetorix should make a huge impression in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta.
Bin Suroor’s worst performance on this card was in the old guise of Super Thursday in 2007 at Nad Al Sheba when he saddled Morfarij to win the mile thoroughbred maiden for his only visit to the winners’ enclosure of the night.
There are no easy pickings such as that at Meydan Racecourse now, and the Godolphin trainer could well draw his first blank.
The 2012 Godolphin Mile winner, African Story, is probably Bin Suroor’s best chance of the night and steps out in the featured Al Maktoum Challenge round three, but the seven year old is not getting any better.
It is a race that his trainer has won nine times, though, three times with subsequent World Cup winners Dubai Millennium, Street Cry and Electrocutionist.
Bin Suroor’s strike rate is 25 per cent this season, which equates to at least one winner this evening.
If African Story wins, Bin Suroor can breath a little and push on for the summit.
Five horses to keep an eye on at Super Saturday
Soft Falling Rain, Mahab Al Shimaal
Mike De Kock talked about running his charge over 1,200 metres throughout his European campaign last season.
The gutsy colt gets his chance tonight on his first start back since finishing tailed off at Ascot in October.
Shea Shea, Meydan Sprint
De Kock’s turf sprinter has run three times in Dubai and broken two track records.
If he is not rusty from seven months off and turns up in anything like the same form as when he won the Meydan Sprint on this card 12 months ago, the Al Quoz Sprint in three weeks looks his for the taking once again.
Variety Club, Burj Nahaar
The dual South African Horse of the Year staked his claim for Dubai World Cup honours as an easy winner of the Firebreak Stakes over a mile on Tapeta on his first start in Dubai.
Joey Ramsden’s runner looks the real deal and victory tonight could mean a run in the World Cup.
Penglai Pavilion, Dubai City Of Gold
All six of Charlie Appleby’s Carnival wins this season have been achieved with horses having their first run of the season.
Penglai Pavilion was always going to be a better four year old and could be interesting in a weak-looking Dubai City Of Gold.
Elleval, Al Maktoum Challenge (Round 3)
The Irish raider’s form may not look much but that is because he has run poorly on turf in between two big runs on Tapeta.
Elleval was second in last season’s UAE Derby, and won over the World Cup surface and distance last month. He could be a serious player both tonight and in the world’s most valuable race.
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ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
if you go
The flights
Fly direct to Kutaisi with Flydubai from Dh925 return, including taxes. The flight takes 3.5 hours. From there, Svaneti is a four-hour drive. The driving time from Tbilisi is eight hours.
The trip
The cost of the Svaneti trip is US$2,000 (Dh7,345) for 10 days, including food, guiding, accommodation and transfers from and to Tbilisi or Kutaisi. This summer the TCT is also offering a 5-day hike in Armenia for $1,200 (Dh4,407) per person. For further information, visit www.transcaucasiantrail.org/en/hike/
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
The biog
Name: Mohammed Imtiaz
From: Gujranwala, Pakistan
Arrived in the UAE: 1976
Favourite clothes to make: Suit
Cost of a hand-made suit: From Dh550
The specs: 2017 GMC Sierra 1500 Denali
Price, base / as tested Dh207,846 / Dh220,000
Engine 6.2L V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque 624Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined 13.5L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 5.2-litre V10
Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm
Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
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MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Messi 23' pen, 45 1', 48', Busquets 85')
Celta Vigo 1 (Olaza 42')
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
RESULT
Chelsea 2
Willian 13'
Ross Barkley 64'
Liverpool 0
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets