Pakistan face a familiar situation at ICC tournaments - a challenging victory margin in a must-win game for qualification to the knockouts.
The vagaries of the 2026 T20 World Cup have meant that teams whose fates are tied to net run rates have to contend with extraordinary margins of victories as results this tournament have been highly lopsided.
In T20 cricket, teams generally win or lose by 20-30 runs or chase the target with a couple of overs to spare. However over the last week alone, five teams have won by over 50 runs and one team won by nine wickets.
In Group 2 of the Super Eight stage, England booked their spot for the semi-finals following a tense win over New Zealand in Colombo.
Harry Brook's team made the cut on a full six points from three games, with second-placed New Zealand finishing the stage on three points following one washout.
That leaves Pakistan with an outside chance of qualifying for the semi-finals during their final Super Eight match against Sri Lanka in Pallekele today.
Salman Agha's team are currently on one point and can rise to three with a win over Sri Lanka and get tied with New Zealand on points.
However, Pakistan's net run rate (-0.461) is a fair way behind that of New Zealand (1.30). A straightforward win will thus not be enough for Pakistan as New Zealand will still qualify due to a superior net run rate.
For Pakistan to overtake New Zealand's net run rate, they must defeat Sri Lanka by a margin of 65 runs or chase the target in around 13 overs.
A washout will do Pakistan no favours as they will finish on two points and get knocked out.
Sri Lanka are yet to open their account in the Super Eight stage and have no chance of qualifying for the semi-finals.
However, the host nation stand to gain from Pakistan's qualification to the knockouts. If Pakistan fail to make it through, the remaining matches of the tournament will be staged in India. However, if Pakistan qualify, Sri Lanka will get to host a semi-final and also a final if the team in green make it that far.
The Sri Lanka v Pakistan Super Eight match begins at 5.30pm UAE time on Saturday and will be shown on the Starzplay app in the UAE.
The weather forecast for today is clear with very low chance of precipitation.
