India and Pakistan share a fierce cricketing rivalry but recent years have seen India take clear control.
Of 13 T20 internationals between the two, Pakistan have won just three. In their past 10 encounters across all formats, Pakistan have come out on top just twice.
However, Pakistan have reason to be optimistic for their next clash against their bitter rivals.
Dubai International Stadium was the scene of their past two wins against India, at the T20 World Cup in 2021 and the 2022 Asia Cup.
The two face off in the 2025 Asia Cup in Dubai this Sunday, and given the relative weakness of the other Group A teams, Oman and UAE, both sides are likely to meet again in the Super 4 stage on September 21.
If both teams make it to the final – something that has never happened in the previous 16 editions of the men’s Asia Cup – they could meet a third time on September 28.
Pakistan’s X-factor
Although India have largely dominated the rivalry, there is one area where Pakistan have consistently posed a challenge: fast bowling.
In fact, no other team’s pacers have troubled India in T20 internationals as much as Pakistan’s have.
That remains Pakistan’s strongest weapon and possibly their best chance to beat India at the Asia Cup.
Across 13 T20s played between the two sides, Pakistan’s fast bowlers have maintained an impressive average of 21.45 against India, the best of any team and significantly better than the next best, England, whose pacers average 27.03.
Pakistan are also the only team whose pacers have gone at less than eight an over against India.
Regardless of the conditions, Pakistan’s pace attack has often kept them competitive.
Even in Dubai, a venue known to favour spinners and where Pakistan claimed their historic T20 World Cup 2021 win over India, it was the fiery opening spell of Shaheen Afridi that set the tone for victory.
More than 75 per cent of 70 wickets Pakistan bowlers have taken against India in T20s have come from pacers, a striking figure given that nine of those 13 matches were played in Asia, where spin traditionally plays a bigger role.
Tactical dilemma: Two or three specialist pacers?
The reason this argument is relevant is because since May this year, under the new head coach Mike Hesson and captain Salman Agha, Pakistan have not fielded three specialist fast bowlers in a single T20.
In all 14 matches during this period, the third seamer role has gone to Faheem Ashraf, chosen more for his batting than bowling.
Of the five players who have featured in every game under the new regime – Agha, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Nawaz, Mohammad Haris and Saim Ayub – Faheem’s role has been limited. He has bowled his full quota of four overs in only two out of 14 games, averaging just two overs with the ball and seven balls with the bat per match.
These numbers raise questions about whether the team have sacrificed bowling depth for marginal batting benefit.
If Pakistan persist with only two front line pacers, India’s batters could be the ones to benefit. Except for Abhishek Sharma, all of India’s top-order options have better averages against spin than pace in T20s this year.
Even Abhishek, despite averaging lower against spin, is striking at a whopping 266.21.
The only Indian batter who has shown some vulnerability to spin this year is Hardik Pandya.
The all-rounder averages 30.5 against slow bowlers with a strike rate of 119.60. This is somewhat surprising given his reputation for taking spinners apart in the past.
India's likely top order vs Pakistan and their T20 record in 2024
(Batter, average vs pace, average vs spin)
Shubman Gill, 42.22, 135.00
Abhishek Sharma, 47.36, 32.83
Tilak Varma, 27.30, 68.00
Suryakumar Yadav, 35.72, 70.40
Hardik Pandya, 25.00, 30.50
Sanju Samson 24.70, 29.66
Spin support is strong
Even with a three-pronged pace attack (preferably Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf and Mohammad Wasim), Pakistan’s spin resources remain formidable.
Mohammad Nawaz’s recent resurgence, highlighted by a hat-trick and a five-wicket haul in the tri-series final against Afghanistan in Sharjah, along with his strong track record in UAE conditions, adds significant depth to their spin unit.
The inclusion of mystery spinners like Abrar Ahmed or Sufiyan Muqeem brings variation, while part-timers such as Saim and Agha offer valuable support.
Pakistan’s best chance of toppling India still lies in doubling down on their core strength: fast bowling. This means that even if they choose to play only two seamers, as they did in the tri-series final against Afghanistan in Sharjah, those selections must be based on bowling ability rather than batting contributions.
